Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

Keith-M

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Defeated Romanticist said:
The Greens will transfer to FF like the PDs did, mark my words.

I agree with DR here. When the PDs started out the transferred by about 2-1 to FG (despite the fact that most of their prominent defectors were FF) but years in government meant that the transfers started to swing the other way. The same will happen to the Greens. If the parties are seen to be working well together it will soften out supporters of all parties to vote for one another. The Greens will pick up extra FF transfers which may be very useful in holding existing seats and well as making gains in places like DC, GW, Wk etc.

Equally Greeen transfers to FF could help FF hold seats that could be very marginal.
 


meriwether

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Keith-M said:
[quote="Defeated Romanticist":2w3tsicv]

The Greens will transfer to FF like the PDs did, mark my words.

I agree with DR here. When the PDs started out the transferred by about 2-1 to FG (despite the fact that most of their prominent defectors were FF) but years in government meant that the transfers started to swing the other way. The same will happen to the Greens. If the parties are seen to be working well together it will soften out supporters of all parties to vote for one another. The Greens will pick up extra FF transfers which may be very useful in holding existing seats and well as making gains in places like DC, GW, Wk etc.

Equally Greeen transfers to FF could help FF hold seats that could be very marginal.[/quote:2w3tsicv]

This of course, will happen.
Anyone who thinks that the Greens wont transfer in greater numbers to FF rather than anyone else next time is deluding themselves.
They're eating chips out of each other's knickers at the moment. Think how chummy they will be in 5 years time?

(This isn't a criticism, its simple logic. FF are the Greens friend at the moment. You're going to be nice to your friend, and give him seconf preferences, aren't you?)
 

westkerryblue

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hiding behind a poster said:
westkerryblue said:
.As for Kerry South FG are going from strenght to strenght and have for the last 10 years.Tom Sheahan is building up quite a formidable base and will get a lot of Moynihan's vote which was mainly personal.
True. People forget that although Sheahan is Killarney-based, he has business and family connections all over the constituency, which always helps.

Can see FG hitting at least 30% with a decent running mate for Sheahan.
I think Cosai is a decent running mate. He's built a very strong base on the Dingle Peninsula, with the result that the others tend to ignore the area, making him even more dominant there.
My local lad.It was amazing how he didnt get in in 2002.Totla disaster vote management.We're too strong to lose the seat unless we mess it up ourselves.
 

hiding behind a poster

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westkerryblue said:
hiding behind a poster said:
westkerryblue said:
.As for Kerry South FG are going from strenght to strenght and have for the last 10 years.Tom Sheahan is building up quite a formidable base and will get a lot of Moynihan's vote which was mainly personal.
True. People forget that although Sheahan is Killarney-based, he has business and family connections all over the constituency, which always helps.

Can see FG hitting at least 30% with a decent running mate for Sheahan.
I think Cosai is a decent running mate. He's built a very strong base on the Dingle Peninsula, with the result that the others tend to ignore the area, making him even more dominant there.
My local lad.It was amazing how he didnt get in in 2002.Totla disaster vote management.We're too strong to lose the seat unless we mess it up ourselves.

Whereabouts in West Kerry are you?
 

TradMan

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Richie Nixon said:
If Dublin Mid West Swings anywhere, it will go back to Fianna Fail. Dublin Central, which is likely to lose Bertie and Gregory will both go to Fianna Fail. I could also see an extra seat in Cork, and potentially one in Laois/Offaly with Cowan now at the helm. Longford/Westmeath is another potential increase

Potential Losses
1.Dublin South West. However the seat up for grabs would only benefit Sinn Fein, and in particular Sean Crowe.
2.Dublin South East. Chris Andrew's is a lightweight, who if McDowell had performed properly before and during the election would not have been elected. His seat along with John Gormley's are both up for grabs, with the Labour Seat likly to go to Dermot Lacey should Quinn retire. I would suggest that any PD revival could be predicated on taking Gormless's or Andrew's seat. This is not beyond the realm of possibility, as the PD Vote is a party vote, and not a personaly one like is Mid West.

Of course this is all predicated on the Irish landscape remaining as it is, will little recession, and plentiful jobs etc. Otherwise we could have a whole new era of governance
FF had 29% of the vote in DSE with your lightweight andrews topping the poll, up against the big heavyweights and Party Leaders of McDowell, (ex) Quinn and (now) Gormley. Without McDowell chances are they could pull in an extra seat, your way out here with your predictions.
 

Dunny

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TradMan said:
Richie Nixon said:
If Dublin Mid West Swings anywhere, it will go back to Fianna Fail. Dublin Central, which is likely to lose Bertie and Gregory will both go to Fianna Fail. I could also see an extra seat in Cork, and potentially one in Laois/Offaly with Cowan now at the helm. Longford/Westmeath is another potential increase

Potential Losses
1.Dublin South West. However the seat up for grabs would only benefit Sinn Fein, and in particular Sean Crowe.
2.Dublin South East. Chris Andrew's is a lightweight, who if McDowell had performed properly before and during the election would not have been elected. His seat along with John Gormley's are both up for grabs, with the Labour Seat likly to go to Dermot Lacey should Quinn retire. I would suggest that any PD revival could be predicated on taking Gormless's or Andrew's seat. This is not beyond the realm of possibility, as the PD Vote is a party vote, and not a personaly one like is Mid West.

Of course this is all predicated on the Irish landscape remaining as it is, will little recession, and plentiful jobs etc. Otherwise we could have a whole new era of governance
FF had 29% of the vote in DSE with your lightweight andrews topping the poll, up against the big heavyweights and Party Leaders of McDowell, (ex) Quinn and (now) Gormley. Without McDowell chances are they could pull in an extra seat, your way out here with your predictions.
Very true, expect O'Callaghan to soak up some of McDowels vote
 
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TradMan said:
FF had 29% of the vote in DSE with your lightweight andrews topping the poll, up against the big heavyweights and Party Leaders of McDowell, (ex) Quinn and (now) Gormley. Without McDowell chances are they could pull in an extra seat, your way out here with your predictions.
Or just under a quota and a half in a 4 seater.
 

Richie Nixon

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Dunny said:
TradMan said:
Richie Nixon said:
If Dublin Mid West Swings anywhere, it will go back to Fianna Fail. Dublin Central, which is likely to lose Bertie and Gregory will both go to Fianna Fail. I could also see an extra seat in Cork, and potentially one in Laois/Offaly with Cowan now at the helm. Longford/Westmeath is another potential increase

Potential Losses
1.Dublin South West. However the seat up for grabs would only benefit Sinn Fein, and in particular Sean Crowe.
2.Dublin South East. Chris Andrew's is a lightweight, who if McDowell had performed properly before and during the election would not have been elected. His seat along with John Gormley's are both up for grabs, with the Labour Seat likly to go to Dermot Lacey should Quinn retire. I would suggest that any PD revival could be predicated on taking Gormless's or Andrew's seat. This is not beyond the realm of possibility, as the PD Vote is a party vote, and not a personaly one like is Mid West.

Of course this is all predicated on the Irish landscape remaining as it is, will little recession, and plentiful jobs etc. Otherwise we could have a whole new era of governance
FF had 29% of the vote in DSE with your lightweight andrews topping the poll, up against the big heavyweights and Party Leaders of McDowell, (ex) Quinn and (now) Gormley. Without McDowell chances are they could pull in an extra seat, your way out here with your predictions.
Very true, expect O'Callaghan to soak up some of McDowels vote
Not a chance the man is a serial loser. The alternative is Senator Mary White. Cllr John Kenny would be a far greater choice, and will be in the shake up
 

Richie Nixon

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Dunny said:
Senator White?? Are u crazy? She wouldnt get any of McDowels vote...she is quite republican

No no, Im just making the point that after O Callaghan, she is next in line in Dublin South East. Hence, its Andrews or bust from my perspective. White is a joke
 

Dunny

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Richie Nixon said:
Dunny said:
Senator White?? Are u crazy? She wouldnt get any of McDowels vote...she is quite republican

No no, Im just making the point that after O Callaghan, she is next in line in Dublin South East. Hence, its Andrews or bust from my perspective. White is a joke
Dub SE would be priviliged to have Jim as a TD
 

Richie Nixon

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Dunny said:
Richie Nixon said:
Dunny said:
Senator White?? Are u crazy? She wouldnt get any of McDowels vote...she is quite republican

No no, Im just making the point that after O Callaghan, she is next in line in Dublin South East. Hence, its Andrews or bust from my perspective. White is a joke
Dub SE would be priviliged to have Jim as a TD
Im not saying they wouldnt. I just dont believe the constituency has an appitie for him. Otherwise I believe he would have been elected ahead of Andrews.Remember both lost at the locals in 2004 In fact if I lived five miles down the road I would have voted for him voer Andrews. After McDowell of course
 

Defeated Romanticist

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hiding behind a poster said:
[quote="Defeated Romanticist":32cxasl6]

You're assuming that Moriarty will be the candidate again. Besides most of Harney's vote will go to FF when she retires
Ok, so Moriarty won't necessarily be the candidate - but either way, it'd probably be a candidate from the Palmerstown/Lucan end - well away from Harney's base. And you can't say with any certainty that Harney's vote will go to FF, as it is very much a personal vote.

If DW was a 4 seater in the last election FF would have won two seats.
No they wouldn't!!! Gerry Lynam was, at the end of the day, a full 3,800 votes behind Joe Higgins for the hypothetical fourth seat, AFTER Lenihan's surplus was distributed.

As it was a three seater the decision was made to allow BL to run up a massive vote hoovering up all FF votes in the constituency. Now that it's a 4 seater the FF vote will be split evenly and we'll win two seats. FF came within 3% of two quotas in a four seater(37.45%) in DW last time. It will be an easy pick up with the right candidate.
No it isn't. I've noticed, DR, that you tend to assume (you probably don't notice you're doing this, but you do it) that the party you want to see win a seat will adapt strategically to any changes in a constituency - be they seat changes, retirements, or whatever - but the other parties will just roll over and accept that. In particular it was evident in the hilarious scenario you outlined recently in which Labour, a party with 8,000 members, just 20 TDs, no organisation across large swathes of the country, and an ageing parliamentary party, would just click their fingers and become a larger party that Fine Gael - a party with 5 times as many members (and growing), the youngest parliamentary party in the Dail, two and a half times as many Dail seats, three times as many councillors, and fully active organisation in EVERY constituency. And, like I say, you tend to do this when you're predicting seats as well. If DW was a 4-seater, it would immediately become the SP's top target, and all their manpower would be poured into it. FG would feel it necessary to blood a second candidate as a long-term strategy, and the Greens and SF would also move the constituency from "no hope" to "worth working on". The result of all that would be that with more candidates and fiercer competition, FF would not have the easy ride you're suggesting. [/quote:32cxasl6]
I can see why you might discern that from what I post but I am afraid you are mistaken. In DMW, for example, I assme that FF will see the gap left by Harney, one which didn't exist before and target that seat. Given that they would need just a good deal of the Harney vote alone to win that seat and given that they have over one and a half quotas already and that that is a fertile area for FF it is likely that FF will win that seat irregardless of minor national trends. The FG/LP/GP vote tends to interchange just as the FF/PD one does in this constituency and just as FF/PD could not win 3/4 so to cannot FG/LP/GP. The same would happen in DW, where their is an FF vote, an FG vote and a left vote. The FF vote can stretch easily to two quotas in a four seater but can't in a three seater. In a four seater in 2012 in DW FF will micromanage their vote and if they win the same vote last time split 60:40 in BL's favour leaving the second FF candidate with a slightly bigger vote as JB had last time. Burton with the benefit of incumbancy will see off the SP challenge because the failure of Higgins in 2007 will be fatal because he has lost his national platform and is too old to start again. He threw everything he could into DW in 2007 and failed. His vote is gone and won't come back.

The LP may have a clapped out PP and a small organisation but they have one thing FG don't, an answer to the govt which is in contrast. FG don't have this, their argument striped to its core is that we can do it better, an argument which is now irrelevent. This is their great asset over FG and will, I believe, now that they are the only show in town on the left, see them grow like they did between 1987 and 1992. It will take them 10 years, but if the current govt gets re-elected and the opposition is composed of FG and LP post 2012, FG will splinter because they will no longer be able to plausably posit themselves as the main opposition voice.

[quote:32cxasl6]The PDs will through everything at that constituncy with FOM, who unlike Liz O'Donnell is a worker and a good vote winner. The area added to the constituency was part of a strong area for her and if the PDs are still around she might take the mad hatter's seat. But without Brennen there won't be a third FF seat.
I'd agree with that - indeed even WITH Brennan, a third FF seat is very unlikely. There's one seat that goes between FG, the PDs and Labour - and it tends to go wherever the national swing is going.

The Greens will transfer to FF like the PDs did, mark my words.
No they won't. Seriously. Listen to yourself.[/quote:32cxasl6]

[quote:32cxasl6]A de facto gain for FF. 1 FF TD elected as CC, another elected by votes. if LP can get ahead of any INDs they will win a seat on left over FF transfers, SF and IND transfers too.
But not really a gain for FF, as they'd probably just be taking Healy-Rae's seat, and he always supported them anyway. But again you're ignoring the Fine Gael votes - why do you keep doing that? FG polled 4,500 votes MORE than Labour in Kerry South in 2007, while the transfers you're referring to, from the Greens and SF, only gained Labour 198 votes over FG. And even if the Labour candidate finishes ahead of the leader FG candidate, you've still got the second FG candidate's votes to be distributed.

I know you dream of a world with no Fine Gael in it, DR. I know you wish we didn't exist. But its really starting to affect your judgement. And what must REALLY annoy you is not just that we're still around, but that there's simply so damned many of us. We're everywhere you look, however much you try and ignore us in your constituency analysis.[/quote:32cxasl6]
There were so few SF and GP transfers last time to make them irrelevent. The Labour TD's retirement doomed her, the FG vote in '07 was 8% short of a quota in a two seater, and the elephant in the room is the 56% vote for FF/IFF last time. That's 23% above a quota in a 2 seater. Come on now HBAP, do you really think that that won't go largely to LP over FG in 2012?
 

hiding behind a poster

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Dunny said:
TradMan said:
Richie Nixon said:
If Dublin Mid West Swings anywhere, it will go back to Fianna Fail. Dublin Central, which is likely to lose Bertie and Gregory will both go to Fianna Fail. I could also see an extra seat in Cork, and potentially one in Laois/Offaly with Cowan now at the helm. Longford/Westmeath is another potential increase

Potential Losses
1.Dublin South West. However the seat up for grabs would only benefit Sinn Fein, and in particular Sean Crowe.
2.Dublin South East. Chris Andrew's is a lightweight, who if McDowell had performed properly before and during the election would not have been elected. His seat along with John Gormley's are both up for grabs, with the Labour Seat likly to go to Dermot Lacey should Quinn retire. I would suggest that any PD revival could be predicated on taking Gormless's or Andrew's seat. This is not beyond the realm of possibility, as the PD Vote is a party vote, and not a personaly one like is Mid West.

Of course this is all predicated on the Irish landscape remaining as it is, will little recession, and plentiful jobs etc. Otherwise we could have a whole new era of governance
FF had 29% of the vote in DSE with your lightweight andrews topping the poll, up against the big heavyweights and Party Leaders of McDowell, (ex) Quinn and (now) Gormley. Without McDowell chances are they could pull in an extra seat, your way out here with your predictions.
Very true, expect O'Callaghan to soak up some of McDowels vote
They're still some distance away from a second seat - particularly as all their opponents (FG, Labour, Greens, SF) will probably run just one candidate each. 16% for one candidate wins a seat in a 4-seater far more often than 32% wins two for two candidates.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Dunny said:
He got about 9% last May. If he moves any wher near 13% he is in with a shot. I expect a lot of McDowels vote to come back to him
Why, because McDowell's vote is an old FG vote, and will therefore migrate back to..... FF? We've had some curious logic on this thread. We've had the suggestion that because Harney is ex-FF, her votes will drift back to FF, and because McDowell is ex-FG, his votes will drift back to FF.

Odd.
 

Defeated Romanticist

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hiding behind a poster said:
Dunny said:
He got about 9% last May. If he moves any wher near 13% he is in with a shot. I expect a lot of McDowels vote to come back to him
Why, because McDowell's vote is an old FG vote, and will therefore migrate back to..... FF? We've had some curious logic on this thread. We've had the suggestion that because Harney is ex-FF, her votes will drift back to FF, and because McDowell is ex-FG, his votes will drift back to FF.

Odd.
Look at who they transferred to in 2007. The PDs will turn to FF not FG. The McDowell vote could easily be swollowed up by FF if the run a Noel Whelan to take the barrister types who voted for McDowell in 2007.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Defeated Romanticist said:
I can see why you might discern that from what I post but I am afraid you are mistaken. In DMW, for example, I assme that FF will see the gap left by Harney, one which didn't exist before and target that seat. Given that they would need just a good deal of the Harney vote alone to win that seat and given that they have over one and a half quotas already and that that is a fertile area for FF it is likely that FF will win that seat irregardless of minor national trends. The FG/LP/GP vote tends to interchange just as the FF/PD one does in this constituency and just as FF/PD could not win 3/4 so to cannot FG/LP/GP.
You see, you're doing it again. You've decided the FF strategy, but neglected to consider that other parties will also target that seat, and strategise accordingly. And again, you're assuming a perfectly benign scenario for FF. Furthermore, if you're basing it on previous votes, then you have to bear in mind that Fitzgerald has a base of 4,500 votes, which leaves her well ahead of Moriarty.

The same would happen in DW, where their is an FF vote, an FG vote and a left vote. The FF vote can stretch easily to two quotas in a four seater but can't in a three seater. In a four seater in 2012 in DW FF will micromanage their vote and if they win the same vote last time split 60:40 in BL's favour leaving the second FF candidate with a slightly bigger vote as JB had last time. Burton with the benefit of incumbancy will see off the SP challenge because the failure of Higgins in 2007 will be fatal because he has lost his national platform and is too old to start again. He threw everything he could into DW in 2007 and failed. His vote is gone and won't come back.
But again you've no evidence of that. Furthermore, if you look back at the figures from last time, both FF and the FG/Labour bloc had about 37% between them - but the anti-government bloc won 2 seats, to FF's one. That tells you all you need to know about the allegiances of the remaining 26%, and thus it would be a very very hard seat for FF to win. And again, you're neglecting to consider that other parties will strategise too. If Higgins is off the scene, for instance, this becomes a SF target in a big way - which in turn will eat into the soft base of working-class FF support around Mulhuddart, making a second seat even harder for them to win.



The LP may have a clapped out PP and a small organisation but they have one thing FG don't, an answer to the govt which is in contrast. FG don't have this, their argument striped to its core is that we can do it better, an argument which is now irrelevent.
But that's only your opinion, and the electorate don't share it. If anything, the reason for the solid rise in FG support since the election is because THEY are the only party seen as definitively offering an alternative government to FF. People aren't as hung up on policy as you think, DR. They see governments and oppositions.

This is their great asset over FG and will, I believe, now that they are the only show in town on the left, see them grow like they did between 1987 and 1992. It will take them 10 years,
Yeah, sure. They said that in 1998, too. And 1988. And 1978. And 1968. And it never happens.

but if the current govt gets re-elected and the opposition is composed of FG and LP post 2012, FG will splinter because they will no longer be able to plausably posit themselves as the main opposition voice
And again, you've NOTHING to back that up with!! You seem to think that a party with 40,000 members, 300 councillors, 51 TDs and 5 MEPs will just fold up the tent and say "ah, sure, Defeated Romanticist doesn't think we fit in on the ideological spectrum - time to pack it in." I've no problem with you wishing FG would disappear - but that's just it - you're wishing.


There were so few SF and GP transfers last time to make them irrelevent. The Labour TD's retirement doomed her, the FG vote in '07 was 8% short of a quota in a two seater, and the elephant in the room is the 56% vote for FF/IFF last time. That's 23% above a quota in a 2 seater. Come on now HBAP, do you really think that that won't go largely to LP over FG in 2012?
Moynihan-Cronin was struggling anyway, as she should have lost in 2002, but the national swing and a mucked-up transfer pact hit FG. And no, I see no reason whatsoever why an FF/IFF surplus should greatly benefit Labour over FG. You haven't explained why it would either. In fact Sheahan is ideally positioned geographically to pick up transfers from both Fleming of FF and the Healy-Rae candidate - not a majority of transfers, but a significant minority. And that would be all he needs. Meanwhile, Labour will have a new candidate - probably relatively unknown, trying to unseat an incumbent. Who knows, it may be a brilliant candidate like Seamus Moynihan - but in the absense of that, the figures say 1 FF, 1 anti-FF, probably FG, as he's an incumbent. (Furthermore, there's a fair tradition of plumping among the FF/IFF voters in Kerry South, so an awful lot of them will stop after those votes, thus greatly negating your transfer argument). You see once again, DR, you look for the benign scenario for FF, but either refuse to, or just fail to, assess all the other factors. You seem to live in a world where everything is perfect for FF, and you need to wake up and look around.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Defeated Romanticist said:
[quote="hiding behind a poster":2jwwuj35]
Dunny said:
He got about 9% last May. If he moves any wher near 13% he is in with a shot. I expect a lot of McDowels vote to come back to him
Why, because McDowell's vote is an old FG vote, and will therefore migrate back to..... FF? We've had some curious logic on this thread. We've had the suggestion that because Harney is ex-FF, her votes will drift back to FF, and because McDowell is ex-FG, his votes will drift back to FF.

Odd.
Look at who they transferred to in 2007. The PDs will turn to FF not FG. The McDowell vote could easily be swollowed up by FF if the run a Noel Whelan to take the barrister types who voted for McDowell in 2007.[/quote:2jwwuj35]

Look at who who transferred to in 2007? McDowell lined himself up firmly on the side of wanting an FF-led government post-election, so obviously FF voters transferred to him. But his open allegiance to FF was one of the factors that cost him his seat too, as it turned off the soft FG voters who were always so crucial to him. So the question is where those voters will go, and there's no reason to suggest they'll migrate to FF.
 

Defeated Romanticist

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hiding behind a poster said:
Defeated Romanticist":2o4knmoc]quote="hiding behind a poster said:
Dunny said:
He got about 9% last May. If he moves any wher near 13% he is in with a shot. I expect a lot of McDowels vote to come back to him[quote

Why, because McDowell's vote is an old FG vote, and will therefore migrate back to..... FF? We've had some curious logic on this thread. We've had the suggestion that because Harney is ex-FF, her votes will drift back to FF, and because McDowell is ex-FG, his votes will drift back to FF.

Odd.
Look at who they transferred to in 2007. The PDs will turn to FF not FG. The McDowell vote could easily be swollowed up by FF if the run a Noel Whelan to take the barrister types who voted for McDowell in 2007.
Look at who who transferred to in 2007? McDowell lined himself up firmly on the side of wanting an FF-led government post-election, so obviously FF voters transferred to him. But his open allegiance to FF was one of the factors that cost him his seat too, as it turned off the soft FG voters who were always so crucial to him. So the question is where those voters will go, and there's no reason to suggest they'll migrate to FF. [/quote:2o4knmoc]
Answered your own question.
 


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