Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

shannonBlueShirt

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As for pickups in 2012 said:
Clare !!!! I don’t think so... People still have not forgotten that FF F**ked them with the Heathrow Slots...

FF will be very very lucky to hold two... and it might not be the same two as now... James Breen (Ind -FF) will do well if he run's and highlights FF failures...
 


Defeated Romanticist

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hiding behind a poster said:
[quote="Defeated Romanticist":72vdac2o]

I can see why you might discern that from what I post but I am afraid you are mistaken. In DMW, for example, I assme that FF will see the gap left by Harney, one which didn't exist before and target that seat. Given that they would need just a good deal of the Harney vote alone to win that seat and given that they have over one and a half quotas already and that that is a fertile area for FF it is likely that FF will win that seat irregardless of minor national trends. The FG/LP/GP vote tends to interchange just as the FF/PD one does in this constituency and just as FF/PD could not win 3/4 so to cannot FG/LP/GP.
You see, you're doing it again. You've decided the FF strategy, but neglected to consider that other parties will also target that seat, and strategise accordingly. And again, you're assuming a perfectly benign scenario for FF. Furthermore, if you're basing it on previous votes, then you have to bear in mind that Fitzgerald has a base of 4,500 votes, which leaves her well ahead of Moriarty.[/quote:72vdac2o]
It doesn't matter what the other parties do. All FF need to do is win the 2/3rds, even a half of the Harney vote and the two seats are in the bag, hold their own and they're home. Geography doesn't matter in such a small constituency, I mean God, HBAP, even a PDs' poster has admitted that the seat will probably be gained by FF.

[quote:72vdac2o]The same would happen in DW, where their is an FF vote, an FG vote and a left vote. The FF vote can stretch easily to two quotas in a four seater but can't in a three seater. In a four seater in 2012 in DW FF will micromanage their vote and if they win the same vote last time split 60:40 in BL's favour leaving the second FF candidate with a slightly bigger vote as JB had last time. Burton with the benefit of incumbancy will see off the SP challenge because the failure of Higgins in 2007 will be fatal because he has lost his national platform and is too old to start again. He threw everything he could into DW in 2007 and failed. His vote is gone and won't come back.
But again you've no evidence of that. Furthermore, if you look back at the figures from last time, both FF and the FG/Labour bloc had about 37% between them - but the anti-government bloc won 2 seats, to FF's one. That tells you all you need to know about the allegiances of the remaining 26%, and thus it would be a very very hard seat for FF to win. And again, you're neglecting to consider that other parties will strategise too. If Higgins is off the scene, for instance, this becomes a SF target in a big way - which in turn will eat into the soft base of working-class FF support around Mulhuddart, making a second seat even harder for them to win.[/quote:72vdac2o]
No, what it means is that because the lefty type vote is so splintered, they will leak votes throught the counts, and the strongest one will finish as runner up. The anti-govt block won two seats because their vote was evenly split and the FF vote was focused on electing one TD so the finger was left firmly in as the party concentrated elsewhere.

[quote:72vdac2o]The LP may have a clapped out PP and a small organisation but they have one thing FG don't, an answer to the govt which is in contrast. FG don't have this, their argument striped to its core is that we can do it better, an argument which is now irrelevent.
But that's only your opinion, and the electorate don't share it. If anything, the reason for the solid rise in FG support since the election is because THEY are the only party seen as definitively offering an alternative government to FF. People aren't as hung up on policy as you think, DR. They see governments and oppositions.

This is their great asset over FG and will, I believe, now that they are the only show in town on the left, see them grow like they did between 1987 and 1992. It will take them 10 years,
Yeah, sure. They said that in 1998, too. And 1988. And 1978. And 1968. And it never happens. [/quote:72vdac2o]
Difference between then and now is that FG are much smaller and have competition on the right and have moved to the left of their centre.
[quote:72vdac2o]but if the current govt gets re-elected and the opposition is composed of FG and LP post 2012, FG will splinter because they will no longer be able to plausably posit themselves as the main opposition voice
And again, you've NOTHING to back that up with!! You seem to think that a party with 40,000 members, 300 councillors, 51 TDs and 5 MEPs will just fold up the tent and say "ah, sure, Defeated Romanticist doesn't think we fit in on the ideological spectrum - time to pack it in." I've no problem with you wishing FG would disappear - but that's just it - you're wishing. [/quote:72vdac2o]
Ofcourse I don't, It's an opinion!

[quote:72vdac2o]There were so few SF and GP transfers last time to make them irrelevent. The Labour TD's retirement doomed her, the FG vote in '07 was 8% short of a quota in a two seater, and the elephant in the room is the 56% vote for FF/IFF last time. That's 23% above a quota in a 2 seater. Come on now HBAP, do you really think that that won't go largely to LP over FG in 2012?
Moynihan-Cronin was struggling anyway, as she should have lost in 2002, but the national swing and a mucked-up transfer pact hit FG. And no, I see no reason whatsoever why an FF/IFF surplus should greatly benefit Labour over FG. You haven't explained why it would either. In fact Sheahan is ideally positioned geographically to pick up transfers from both Fleming of FF and the Healy-Rae candidate - not a majority of transfers, but a significant minority. And that would be all he needs. Meanwhile, Labour will have a new candidate - probably relatively unknown, trying to unseat an incumbent. Who knows, it may be a brilliant candidate like Seamus Moynihan - but in the absense of that, the figures say 1 FF, 1 anti-FF, probably FG, as he's an incumbent. (Furthermore, there's a fair tradition of plumping among the FF/IFF voters in Kerry South, so an awful lot of them will stop after those votes, thus greatly negating your transfer argument). You see once again, DR, you look for the benign scenario for FF, but either refuse to, or just fail to, assess all the other factors. You seem to live in a world where everything is perfect for FF, and you need to wake up and look around. [/quote:72vdac2o]
Just about every constitueny in the country has FF votes going in a greater margin to LP over FG where applicable. Ofcourse this is dependent on a sood LP candidate, and that will rely on what happens next June.
 

westkerryblue

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Defeated Romanticist said:
[quote="hiding behind a poster":37nrjqj4][quote="Defeated Romanticist":37nrjqj4]

I can see why you might discern that from what I post but I am afraid you are mistaken. In DMW, for example, I assme that FF will see the gap left by Harney, one which didn't exist before and target that seat. Given that they would need just a good deal of the Harney vote alone to win that seat and given that they have over one and a half quotas already and that that is a fertile area for FF it is likely that FF will win that seat irregardless of minor national trends. The FG/LP/GP vote tends to interchange just as the FF/PD one does in this constituency and just as FF/PD could not win 3/4 so to cannot FG/LP/GP.
You see, you're doing it again. You've decided the FF strategy, but neglected to consider that other parties will also target that seat, and strategise accordingly. And again, you're assuming a perfectly benign scenario for FF. Furthermore, if you're basing it on previous votes, then you have to bear in mind that Fitzgerald has a base of 4,500 votes, which leaves her well ahead of Moriarty.[/quote:37nrjqj4]
It doesn't matter what the other parties do. All FF need to do is win the 2/3rds, even a half of the Harney vote and the two seats are in the bag, hold their own and they're home. Geography doesn't matter in such a small constituency, I mean God, HBAP, even a PDs' poster has admitted that the seat will probably be gained by FF.

[quote:37nrjqj4]The same would happen in DW, where their is an FF vote, an FG vote and a left vote. The FF vote can stretch easily to two quotas in a four seater but can't in a three seater. In a four seater in 2012 in DW FF will micromanage their vote and if they win the same vote last time split 60:40 in BL's favour leaving the second FF candidate with a slightly bigger vote as JB had last time. Burton with the benefit of incumbancy will see off the SP challenge because the failure of Higgins in 2007 will be fatal because he has lost his national platform and is too old to start again. He threw everything he could into DW in 2007 and failed. His vote is gone and won't come back.
But again you've no evidence of that. Furthermore, if you look back at the figures from last time, both FF and the FG/Labour bloc had about 37% between them - but the anti-government bloc won 2 seats, to FF's one. That tells you all you need to know about the allegiances of the remaining 26%, and thus it would be a very very hard seat for FF to win. And again, you're neglecting to consider that other parties will strategise too. If Higgins is off the scene, for instance, this becomes a SF target in a big way - which in turn will eat into the soft base of working-class FF support around Mulhuddart, making a second seat even harder for them to win.[/quote:37nrjqj4]
No, what it means is that because the lefty type vote is so splintered, they will leak votes throught the counts, and the strongest one will finish as runner up. The anti-govt block won two seats because their vote was evenly split and the FF vote was focused on electing one TD so the finger was left firmly in as the party concentrated elsewhere.

[quote:37nrjqj4]The LP may have a clapped out PP and a small organisation but they have one thing FG don't, an answer to the govt which is in contrast. FG don't have this, their argument striped to its core is that we can do it better, an argument which is now irrelevent.
But that's only your opinion, and the electorate don't share it. If anything, the reason for the solid rise in FG support since the election is because THEY are the only party seen as definitively offering an alternative government to FF. People aren't as hung up on policy as you think, DR. They see governments and oppositions.

This is their great asset over FG and will, I believe, now that they are the only show in town on the left, see them grow like they did between 1987 and 1992. It will take them 10 years,
Yeah, sure. They said that in 1998, too. And 1988. And 1978. And 1968. And it never happens. [/quote:37nrjqj4]
Difference between then and now is that FG are much smaller and have competition on the right and have moved to the left of their centre.
[quote:37nrjqj4]but if the current govt gets re-elected and the opposition is composed of FG and LP post 2012, FG will splinter because they will no longer be able to plausably posit themselves as the main opposition voice
And again, you've NOTHING to back that up with!! You seem to think that a party with 40,000 members, 300 councillors, 51 TDs and 5 MEPs will just fold up the tent and say "ah, sure, Defeated Romanticist doesn't think we fit in on the ideological spectrum - time to pack it in." I've no problem with you wishing FG would disappear - but that's just it - you're wishing. [/quote:37nrjqj4]
Ofcourse I don't, It's an opinion!

[quote:37nrjqj4]There were so few SF and GP transfers last time to make them irrelevent. The Labour TD's retirement doomed her, the FG vote in '07 was 8% short of a quota in a two seater, and the elephant in the room is the 56% vote for FF/IFF last time. That's 23% above a quota in a 2 seater. Come on now HBAP, do you really think that that won't go largely to LP over FG in 2012?
Moynihan-Cronin was struggling anyway, as she should have lost in 2002, but the national swing and a mucked-up transfer pact hit FG. And no, I see no reason whatsoever why an FF/IFF surplus should greatly benefit Labour over FG. You haven't explained why it would either. In fact Sheahan is ideally positioned geographically to pick up transfers from both Fleming of FF and the Healy-Rae candidate - not a majority of transfers, but a significant minority. And that would be all he needs. Meanwhile, Labour will have a new candidate - probably relatively unknown, trying to unseat an incumbent. Who knows, it may be a brilliant candidate like Seamus Moynihan - but in the absense of that, the figures say 1 FF, 1 anti-FF, probably FG, as he's an incumbent. (Furthermore, there's a fair tradition of plumping among the FF/IFF voters in Kerry South, so an awful lot of them will stop after those votes, thus greatly negating your transfer argument). You see once again, DR, you look for the benign scenario for FF, but either refuse to, or just fail to, assess all the other factors. You seem to live in a world where everything is perfect for FF, and you need to wake up and look around. [/quote:37nrjqj4]
Just about every constitueny in the country has FF votes going in a greater margin to LP over FG where applicable. Ofcourse this is dependent on a sood LP candidate, and that will rely on what happens next June.[/quote:37nrjqj4]

Labour should have been doomed in 2002 not a mind 2007 and 2012.FF core support is falling slowly over time in kerry and fine gael's is resurging.partly due to demographics and freshness.cant see ff geting more than a few percentage over 1 quota.At least half of moynihan's will go straight to sheahan.her vote was personal.Fg will get roughly 33% next time at least.sheahan has bases in killarney,glenbeigh/cahirsiveen,rathmore,kenmare,dingle(they've bought at least a pub and a butchers recently).......doubt if every surplus ff/iff vote over 1 quota was given to labour that they'd overtake fg in KS.You're living in fairyland if you think labour could outvote fg or ff/iff get close to two quotas.if I were to guess I'd say lab would get 8% at most and ff/iff 46%.
 

bada bing

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Fiann Fail will not lose the seat in Dublin South West, O'connors and Lenihans vote went up in the last election, It depends on Rabbite and if he runs again or if Hayes has a running mate which i doubt, after 2002 he can't be regarded as safe.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Defeated Romanticist said:
Answered your own question.
I can only assume you're misinterpreting the question, DR. The point at issue is "where will McDowell's votes migrate to" - not "who transferred to McDowell?" Its obvious that FF voters transferred to McDowell, because all the other main contenders in that constituency, except McDowell, said they wanted FF out of office. Now that tells you nothing about where those who voted No.1 for McDowell will then vote now that he's gone. But the fact that McDowell's vote dropped, while the FG vote rose, gives a fairly big hint - one that even you can't ignore.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Defeated Romanticist said:
It doesn't matter what the other parties do.
:roll: You see, you're just deluded, DR. Every party has known for some time that Harney won't run in 2012. Her territory around Rathcoole/Newcastle is being fought over like Verdun in WW1, by ALL the parties. And it is a personal vote - whether you like it or not.

All FF need to do is win the 2/3rds, even a half of the Harney vote and the two seats are in the bag, hold their own and they're home.
No, they need more than that. Look at the figures.

Geography doesn't matter in such a small constituency
If you think that, go find a tallyman from DMW. Look at the Rathcoole/Newcastle boxes. Seriously, DR - you haven't a clue.

I mean God, HBAP, even a PDs' poster has admitted that the seat will probably be gained by FF.
Cool. One person's opinion. Not many here seem to agree, other than you. So what makes your opinion so valuable?



No, what it means is that because the lefty type vote is so splintered, they will leak votes throught the counts, and the strongest one will finish as runner up. The anti-govt block won two seats because their vote was evenly split and the FF vote was focused on electing one TD so the finger was left firmly in as the party concentrated elsewhere.
You see, there you go again - this is utter nonsense, DR. Basically your argument in every constituency is "everyone else will f*ck things up rightly, and meanwhile the great and mighty FF machine will stroll home. Oh, and no-one else has notice there's an extra seat. We'll have taken it before anyone has even spotted that." Now, back to your view of Dublin West. I'd remind you that, had DW been a 4-seater last time, Higgins would still have comfortably taken the 4th seat ahead of Gallagher. Lenihan gave back just a 60% transfer rate, which suggests managing the vote would have been tricky - it always is in rural areas anyway. What you're suggesting can only happen if FF gain a lot of extra votes from somewhere, without anyone else doing so. And you've yet to suggest why this might happen. Now I don't dispute that its POSSIBLE for FF to take two seats there - but its not the cakewalk you think it is - particularly when your theory requires a substantial swing to FF at a time when their long term trend vote is declining.

Of course I don't, It's an opinion!
Thank you. You've admitted that you have nothing to back up your opinion that Labour will overtake FG. In other words, its a wish more than an opinion.


Just about every constitueny in the country has FF votes going in a greater margin to LP over FG where applicable. Ofcourse this is dependent on a sood LP candidate, and that will rely on what happens next June.
[/quote]

This refers to Kerry South - but for Labour to overtake FG there, they need a HUGE balance of the FF/IND FF transfers - and there's no evidence of that happening. They need thousands - and probably with a first time candidate versus a sitting TD, with all the advantages for picking up transfers that the latter has. You also clearly know nothing about the geography of Kerry South.
 

westkerryblue

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hiding behind a poster said:
[quote="Defeated Romanticist":2f8th1eq]

It doesn't matter what the other parties do.

:roll: You see, you're just deluded, DR. Every party has known for some time that Harney won't run in 2012. Her territory around Rathcoole/Newcastle is being fought over like Verdun in WW1, by ALL the parties. And it is a personal vote - whether you like it or not.

All FF need to do is win the 2/3rds, even a half of the Harney vote and the two seats are in the bag, hold their own and they're home.
No, they need more than that. Look at the figures.

[quote:2f8th1eq]Geography doesn't matter in such a small constituency
If you think that, go find a tallyman from DMW. Look at the Rathcoole/Newcastle boxes. Seriously, DR - you haven't a clue.

I mean God, HBAP, even a PDs' poster has admitted that the seat will probably be gained by FF.
Cool. One person's opinion. Not many here seem to agree, other than you. So what makes your opinion so valuable?



No, what it means is that because the lefty type vote is so splintered, they will leak votes throught the counts, and the strongest one will finish as runner up. The anti-govt block won two seats because their vote was evenly split and the FF vote was focused on electing one TD so the finger was left firmly in as the party concentrated elsewhere.
You see, there you go again - this is utter nonsense, DR. Basically your argument in every constituency is "everyone else will f*ck things up rightly, and meanwhile the great and mighty FF machine will stroll home. Oh, and no-one else has notice there's an extra seat. We'll have taken it before anyone has even spotted that." Now, back to your view of Dublin West. I'd remind you that, had DW been a 4-seater last time, Higgins would still have comfortably taken the 4th seat ahead of Gallagher. Lenihan gave back just a 60% transfer rate, which suggests managing the vote would have been tricky - it always is in rural areas anyway. What you're suggesting can only happen if FF gain a lot of extra votes from somewhere, without anyone else doing so. And you've yet to suggest why this might happen. Now I don't dispute that its POSSIBLE for FF to take two seats there - but its not the cakewalk you think it is - particularly when your theory requires a substantial swing to FF at a time when their long term trend vote is declining.

Of course I don't, It's an opinion!
Thank you. You've admitted that you have nothing to back up your opinion that Labour will overtake FG. In other words, its a wish more than an opinion.


Just about every constitueny in the country has FF votes going in a greater margin to LP over FG where applicable. Ofcourse this is dependent on a sood LP candidate, and that will rely on what happens next June.
[/quote:2f8th1eq]

This refers to Kerry South - but for Labour to overtake FG there, they need a HUGE balance of the FF/IND FF transfers - and there's no evidence of that happening. They need thousands - and probably with a first time candidate versus a sitting TD, with all the advantages for picking up transfers that the latter has. You also clearly know nothing about the geography of Kerry South.[/quote:2f8th1eq]

Right now half of all ff/iff voters would have to switch to labour for them to overtake fg without moynihan.but then the ff/iff wont have a seat.this guy is obvious living in cloud cuckoo land
 

Eddiepops

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106
meriwether said:
This of course, will happen.
Anyone who thinks that the Greens wont transfer in greater numbers to FF rather than anyone else next time is deluding themselves.
They're eating chips out of each other's knickers at the moment. Think how chummy they will be in 5 years time?

(This isn't a criticism, its simple logic. FF are the Greens friend at the moment. You're going to be nice to your friend, and give him seconf preferences, aren't you?)
That's the parliamentary party, not the membership or the voter base. They feel no differently now than they did before. I'm still yet to meet a party member or voter who will give FF a preference. Just because this government hasn't been utterly disastrous, doesn't make us chums. Green voters will probably continue to transfer where they've always transfered - Labour, the left in general and FG to a certain extent. All the best parts of the government that Greens and green leaners like so far have come from our ministers, the developments or lack of them in health, the budget, etc have not set our knickers alight. John and Eamon and Trevor can be as good in a rainbow as they are in a FF led government and I don't see votes changing next time.
 

Dunny

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Eddiepops said:
meriwether said:
This of course, will happen.
Anyone who thinks that the Greens wont transfer in greater numbers to FF rather than anyone else next time is deluding themselves.
They're eating chips out of each other's knickers at the moment. Think how chummy they will be in 5 years time?

(This isn't a criticism, its simple logic. FF are the Greens friend at the moment. You're going to be nice to your friend, and give him seconf preferences, aren't you?)
That's the parliamentary party, not the membership or the voter base. They feel no differently now than they did before. I'm still yet to meet a party member or voter who will give FF a preference. Just because this government hasn't been utterly disastrous, doesn't make us chums. Green voters will probably continue to transfer where they've always transfered - Labour, the left in general and FG to a certain extent. All the best parts of the government that Greens and green leaners like so far have come from our ministers, the developments or lack of them in health, the budget, etc have not set our knickers alight. John and Eamon and Trevor can be as good in a rainbow as they are in a FF led government and I don't see votes changing next time.
I know at least 2 Greens who transfer to FF..One is a councillor and one is a normal Joe Soap...

You know nothing Eddie...Nothing at all...Get back to Russia..What was the name of that drink? lol
 

Eddiepops

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Dunny said:
Eddiepops said:
meriwether said:
This of course, will happen.
Anyone who thinks that the Greens wont transfer in greater numbers to FF rather than anyone else next time is deluding themselves.
They're eating chips out of each other's knickers at the moment. Think how chummy they will be in 5 years time?

(This isn't a criticism, its simple logic. FF are the Greens friend at the moment. You're going to be nice to your friend, and give him seconf preferences, aren't you?)
That's the parliamentary party, not the membership or the voter base. They feel no differently now than they did before. I'm still yet to meet a party member or voter who will give FF a preference. Just because this government hasn't been utterly disastrous, doesn't make us chums. Green voters will probably continue to transfer where they've always transfered - Labour, the left in general and FG to a certain extent. All the best parts of the government that Greens and green leaners like so far have come from our ministers, the developments or lack of them in health, the budget, etc have not set our knickers alight. John and Eamon and Trevor can be as good in a rainbow as they are in a FF led government and I don't see votes changing next time.
I know at least 2 Greens who transfer to FF..One is a councillor and one is a normal Joe Soap...

You know nothing Eddie...Nothing at all...Get back to Russia..What was the name of that drink? lol
Well, I can't speak for all the membership of course. And the drink is Italian. Tsk, philistines in FF, that's why they don't get our transfers :p
 

Richie Nixon

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Dunny said:
He got about 9% last May. If he moves any wher near 13% he is in with a shot. I expect a lot of McDowels vote to come back to him
DSE is largely Fine Gael based. Fianna Fail are anything but the strongest party in that constituency. Which is strange becasue while they are the most popular in the vast majority of the constituencies in the country, the affluant constituency does not view them as much ahead of the others. I find this strange as most of them have benefitted most from the FF/PD coalition government
 

bada bing

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Richie Nixon said:
Dunny said:
He got about 9% last May. If he moves any wher near 13% he is in with a shot. I expect a lot of McDowels vote to come back to him
DSE is largely Fine Gael based. Fianna Fail are anything but the strongest party in that constituency. Which is strange becasue while they are the most popular in the vast majority of the constituencies in the country, the affluant constituency does not view them as much ahead of the others. I find this strange as most of them have benefitted most from the FF/PD coalition government
What?? Nearly 10,000 1st prefs in the last election, always at least 1 ff seat here and every constituency in Ireland
 

Richie Nixon

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That is not a common occurance. Mcdowell topped the poll in 2002, while Quinn topped it in 1997 and 1992. Im not saying it doesnt vote Fianna Fail. I am simply saying it is not as ardent a Fianna Fail constituency as most.
 

bada bing

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Richie Nixon said:
That is not a common occurance. Mcdowell topped the poll in 2002, while Quinn topped it in 1997 and 1992. Im not saying it doesnt vote Fianna Fail. I am simply saying it is not as ardent a Fianna Fail constituency as most.
Topping the poll isn't the most important thing tho, go tru the last say 5 general elections and ff have got around 9,000 - 10,000 1s prefs, i take your point tho ff even on a great day would struggle to get 2 seats, but that could change with Mcdowell out of the frame.
 
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Tony B said:
[quote="Richie Nixon":1vdhhdlg]That is not a common occurance. Mcdowell topped the poll in 2002, while Quinn topped it in 1997 and 1992. Im not saying it doesnt vote Fianna Fail. I am simply saying it is not as ardent a Fianna Fail constituency as most.
Topping the poll isn't the most important thing tho, go tru the last say 5 general elections and ff have got around 9,000 - 10,000 1s prefs, i take your point tho ff even on a great day would struggle to get 2 seats, but that could change with Mcdowell out of the frame.[/quote:1vdhhdlg]

DSE has always been FG territory or should have been even in the days on Garret and Richie Ruin and FF always struggled to get 2 seats with Gerry Brady / Sean Moore
 

Richie Nixon

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Tony B said:
[quote="Richie Nixon":b6foqlej]That is not a common occurance. Mcdowell topped the poll in 2002, while Quinn topped it in 1997 and 1992. Im not saying it doesnt vote Fianna Fail. I am simply saying it is not as ardent a Fianna Fail constituency as most.
Topping the poll isn't the most important thing tho, go tru the last say 5 general elections and ff have got around 9,000 - 10,000 1s prefs, i take your point tho ff even on a great day would struggle to get 2 seats, but that could change with Mcdowell out of the frame.[/quote:b6foqlej]

My fundamental point is that McDowell's votes are more likely to cause Creighton to top the poll next time out. Plus, it was a PD vote, not a McDowell vote, like many would speculate about DMW and Harney. If the PDs get back in the frame, those votes may go nowhere
 

Defeated Romanticist

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Defeated Romanticist said:
[quote="hiding behind a poster":2zb4o18i]

Look at who who transferred to in 2007? McDowell lined himself up firmly on the side of wanting an FF-led government post-election, so obviously FF voters transferred to him. But his open allegiance to FF was one of the factors that cost him his seat too, as it turned off the soft FG voters who were always so crucial to him. So the question is where those voters will go, and there's no reason to suggest they'll migrate to FF.
Answered your own question.[/quote:2zb4o18i]

I can only assume you're misinterpreting the question, DR. The point at issue is "where will McDowell's votes migrate to" - not "who transferred to McDowell?" Its obvious that FF voters transferred to McDowell, because all the other main contenders in that constituency, except McDowell, said they wanted FF out of office. Now that tells you nothing about where those who voted No.1 for McDowell will then vote now that he's gone. But the fact that McDowell's vote dropped, while the FG vote rose, gives a fairly big hint - one that even you can't ignore.
Maybe you are just blind to the forest because of the trees.
Those who stuck it out with McDowell in '07 as you wrote yourself "lined themselves up with wanting as FF led govt post-election", reason would therefore suggest that if they were willing to stick it out with McDowell in '07 when he was part of a Fianna Fáil coalition would at least infer that they would be open to the idea of voting for FF(whose vote also rose in '07) in 2012. Given my personal experience of those who voted McDowell in '07 there is good reason to suggest that they could be ameanable to voting for the right FF candidate in 2012.
 


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