You see, you're doing it again. You've decided the FF strategy, but neglected to consider that other parties will also target that seat, and strategise accordingly. And again, you're assuming a perfectly benign scenario for FF. Furthermore, if you're basing it on previous votes, then you have to bear in mind that Fitzgerald has a base of 4,500 votes, which leaves her well ahead of Moriarty.[/quote:16f8rk1r]hiding behind a poster said:[quote="Defeated Romanticist":16f8rk1r]
I can see why you might discern that from what I post but I am afraid you are mistaken. In DMW, for example, I assme that FF will see the gap left by Harney, one which didn't exist before and target that seat. Given that they would need just a good deal of the Harney vote alone to win that seat and given that they have over one and a half quotas already and that that is a fertile area for FF it is likely that FF will win that seat irregardless of minor national trends. The FG/LP/GP vote tends to interchange just as the FF/PD one does in this constituency and just as FF/PD could not win 3/4 so to cannot FG/LP/GP.
Leaves her well ahead of Moriarty, but not well ahead of Moriarty plus a decent share of the Harney vote which, even if as personal as you suggest, given who that person is, would be more inclined to vote FF than anyone else.
But again you've no evidence of that. Furthermore, if you look back at the figures from last time, both FF and the FG/Labour bloc had about 37% between them - but the anti-government bloc won 2 seats, to FF's one. That tells you all you need to know about the allegiances of the remaining 26%, and thus it would be a very very hard seat for FF to win. And again, you're neglecting to consider that other parties will strategise too. If Higgins is off the scene, for instance, this becomes a SF target in a big way - which in turn will eat into the soft base of working-class FF support around Mulhuddart, making a second seat even harder for them to win.[/quote:16f8rk1r][quote:16f8rk1r]The same would happen in DW, where their is an FF vote, an FG vote and a left vote. The FF vote can stretch easily to two quotas in a four seater but can't in a three seater. In a four seater in 2012 in DW FF will micromanage their vote and if they win the same vote last time split 60:40 in BL's favour leaving the second FF candidate with a slightly bigger vote as JB had last time. Burton with the benefit of incumbancy will see off the SP challenge because the failure of Higgins in 2007 will be fatal because he has lost his national platform and is too old to start again. He threw everything he could into DW in 2007 and failed. His vote is gone and won't come back.
They won 1500 votes their last time with a cllr who as since quit politics. Besides, I don't forsee SF being much of a threat long term. They've exhausted their political appeal of protest politics. Also you forget that Brian Lenihan, second tear politician, junior minister won a third of the vote on his own, Brian Lenihan, one of the most important ministers in the country should have a enough of a pull to retain the FF vote. You know it's not unusual for ministers to bring in running mates.
But that's only your opinion, and the electorate don't share it. If anything, the reason for the solid rise in FG support since the election is because THEY are the only party seen as definitively offering an alternative government to FF. People aren't as hung up on policy as you think, DR. They see governments and oppositions.[/quote:16f8rk1r][quote:16f8rk1r]The LP may have a clapped out PP and a small organisation but they have one thing FG don't, an answer to the govt which is in contrast. FG don't have this, their argument striped to its core is that we can do it better, an argument which is now irrelevent.
Being burned to death with FF or boiled alive with FG, Labour need only reply as they did in the early 90s.
Yeah, sure. They said that in 1998, too. And 1988. And 1978. And 1968. And it never happens.[quote:16f8rk1r]This is their great asset over FG and will, I believe, now that they are the only show in town on the left, see them grow like they did between 1987 and 1992. It will take them 10 years,
And again, you've NOTHING to back that up with!! You seem to think that a party with 40,000 members, 300 councillors, 51 TDs and 5 MEPs will just fold up the tent and say "ah, sure, Defeated Romanticist doesn't think we fit in on the ideological spectrum - time to pack it in." I've no problem with you wishing FG would disappear - but that's just it - you're wishing. [/quote:16f8rk1r]but if the current govt gets re-elected and the opposition is composed of FG and LP post 2012, FG will splinter because they will no longer be able to plausably posit themselves as the main opposition voice
Look at all these young radically right wing TDs in FG. I don't believe they will stick out decades of opposition only to do the reverse of what they believe in government. That's why I believe FG will splinter. They have no route into power without doing what contradicts the deepest beliefs of their voters. And evertime they get a backlash, like they did in '87 and '02, they get smaller and smaller and the compromises they have to make for power become greater and greater. Those who plum don't like FF will, IMO, be more attracted to the direct contrast provided by the left rather than the shallow arguments of FG.
Moynihan-Cronin was struggling anyway, as she should have lost in 2002, but the national swing and a mucked-up transfer pact hit FG. And no, I see no reason whatsoever why an FF/IFF surplus should greatly benefit Labour over FG. You haven't explained why it would either. In fact Sheahan is ideally positioned geographically to pick up transfers from both Fleming of FF and the Healy-Rae candidate - not a majority of transfers, but a significant minority. And that would be all he needs. Meanwhile, Labour will have a new candidate - probably relatively unknown, trying to unseat an incumbent. Who knows, it may be a brilliant candidate like Seamus Moynihan - but in the absense of that, the figures say 1 FF, 1 anti-FF, probably FG, as he's an incumbent. (Furthermore, there's a fair tradition of plumping among the FF/IFF voters in Kerry South, so an awful lot of them will stop after those votes, thus greatly negating your transfer argument). You see once again, DR, you look for the benign scenario for FF, but either refuse to, or just fail to, assess all the other factors. You seem to live in a world where everything is perfect for FF, and you need to wake up and look around.[/quote:16f8rk1r][quote:16f8rk1r]There were so few SF and GP transfers last time to make them irrelevent. The Labour TD's retirement doomed her, the FG vote in '07 was 8% short of a quota in a two seater, and the elephant in the room is the 56% vote for FF/IFF last time. That's 23% above a quota in a 2 seater. Come on now HBAP, do you really think that that won't go largely to LP over FG in 2012?
Your falling victum to your own dogma now HBAP, a belief that the LP will just die in Kerry, they won't, and they will be targeting that seat for 2012. As Gilmore keeps LP unaligned watch him throw a few nods and winks to FF voters over the next few years. The LP has always transferred well, much better than FG.