Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

Defeated Romanticist

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hiding behind a poster said:
[quote="Defeated Romanticist":16f8rk1r]

I can see why you might discern that from what I post but I am afraid you are mistaken. In DMW, for example, I assme that FF will see the gap left by Harney, one which didn't exist before and target that seat. Given that they would need just a good deal of the Harney vote alone to win that seat and given that they have over one and a half quotas already and that that is a fertile area for FF it is likely that FF will win that seat irregardless of minor national trends. The FG/LP/GP vote tends to interchange just as the FF/PD one does in this constituency and just as FF/PD could not win 3/4 so to cannot FG/LP/GP.
You see, you're doing it again. You've decided the FF strategy, but neglected to consider that other parties will also target that seat, and strategise accordingly. And again, you're assuming a perfectly benign scenario for FF. Furthermore, if you're basing it on previous votes, then you have to bear in mind that Fitzgerald has a base of 4,500 votes, which leaves her well ahead of Moriarty.[/quote:16f8rk1r]
Leaves her well ahead of Moriarty, but not well ahead of Moriarty plus a decent share of the Harney vote which, even if as personal as you suggest, given who that person is, would be more inclined to vote FF than anyone else.

[quote:16f8rk1r]The same would happen in DW, where their is an FF vote, an FG vote and a left vote. The FF vote can stretch easily to two quotas in a four seater but can't in a three seater. In a four seater in 2012 in DW FF will micromanage their vote and if they win the same vote last time split 60:40 in BL's favour leaving the second FF candidate with a slightly bigger vote as JB had last time. Burton with the benefit of incumbancy will see off the SP challenge because the failure of Higgins in 2007 will be fatal because he has lost his national platform and is too old to start again. He threw everything he could into DW in 2007 and failed. His vote is gone and won't come back.
But again you've no evidence of that. Furthermore, if you look back at the figures from last time, both FF and the FG/Labour bloc had about 37% between them - but the anti-government bloc won 2 seats, to FF's one. That tells you all you need to know about the allegiances of the remaining 26%, and thus it would be a very very hard seat for FF to win. And again, you're neglecting to consider that other parties will strategise too. If Higgins is off the scene, for instance, this becomes a SF target in a big way - which in turn will eat into the soft base of working-class FF support around Mulhuddart, making a second seat even harder for them to win.[/quote:16f8rk1r]
They won 1500 votes their last time with a cllr who as since quit politics. Besides, I don't forsee SF being much of a threat long term. They've exhausted their political appeal of protest politics. Also you forget that Brian Lenihan, second tear politician, junior minister won a third of the vote on his own, Brian Lenihan, one of the most important ministers in the country should have a enough of a pull to retain the FF vote. You know it's not unusual for ministers to bring in running mates.


[quote:16f8rk1r]The LP may have a clapped out PP and a small organisation but they have one thing FG don't, an answer to the govt which is in contrast. FG don't have this, their argument striped to its core is that we can do it better, an argument which is now irrelevent.
But that's only your opinion, and the electorate don't share it. If anything, the reason for the solid rise in FG support since the election is because THEY are the only party seen as definitively offering an alternative government to FF. People aren't as hung up on policy as you think, DR. They see governments and oppositions.[/quote:16f8rk1r]
Being burned to death with FF or boiled alive with FG, Labour need only reply as they did in the early 90s.

[quote:16f8rk1r]This is their great asset over FG and will, I believe, now that they are the only show in town on the left, see them grow like they did between 1987 and 1992. It will take them 10 years,
Yeah, sure. They said that in 1998, too. And 1988. And 1978. And 1968. And it never happens.

but if the current govt gets re-elected and the opposition is composed of FG and LP post 2012, FG will splinter because they will no longer be able to plausably posit themselves as the main opposition voice
And again, you've NOTHING to back that up with!! You seem to think that a party with 40,000 members, 300 councillors, 51 TDs and 5 MEPs will just fold up the tent and say "ah, sure, Defeated Romanticist doesn't think we fit in on the ideological spectrum - time to pack it in." I've no problem with you wishing FG would disappear - but that's just it - you're wishing. [/quote:16f8rk1r]
Look at all these young radically right wing TDs in FG. I don't believe they will stick out decades of opposition only to do the reverse of what they believe in government. That's why I believe FG will splinter. They have no route into power without doing what contradicts the deepest beliefs of their voters. And evertime they get a backlash, like they did in '87 and '02, they get smaller and smaller and the compromises they have to make for power become greater and greater. Those who plum don't like FF will, IMO, be more attracted to the direct contrast provided by the left rather than the shallow arguments of FG.

[quote:16f8rk1r]There were so few SF and GP transfers last time to make them irrelevent. The Labour TD's retirement doomed her, the FG vote in '07 was 8% short of a quota in a two seater, and the elephant in the room is the 56% vote for FF/IFF last time. That's 23% above a quota in a 2 seater. Come on now HBAP, do you really think that that won't go largely to LP over FG in 2012?
Moynihan-Cronin was struggling anyway, as she should have lost in 2002, but the national swing and a mucked-up transfer pact hit FG. And no, I see no reason whatsoever why an FF/IFF surplus should greatly benefit Labour over FG. You haven't explained why it would either. In fact Sheahan is ideally positioned geographically to pick up transfers from both Fleming of FF and the Healy-Rae candidate - not a majority of transfers, but a significant minority. And that would be all he needs. Meanwhile, Labour will have a new candidate - probably relatively unknown, trying to unseat an incumbent. Who knows, it may be a brilliant candidate like Seamus Moynihan - but in the absense of that, the figures say 1 FF, 1 anti-FF, probably FG, as he's an incumbent. (Furthermore, there's a fair tradition of plumping among the FF/IFF voters in Kerry South, so an awful lot of them will stop after those votes, thus greatly negating your transfer argument). You see once again, DR, you look for the benign scenario for FF, but either refuse to, or just fail to, assess all the other factors. You seem to live in a world where everything is perfect for FF, and you need to wake up and look around.[/quote:16f8rk1r]
Your falling victum to your own dogma now HBAP, a belief that the LP will just die in Kerry, they won't, and they will be targeting that seat for 2012. As Gilmore keeps LP unaligned watch him throw a few nods and winks to FF voters over the next few years. The LP has always transferred well, much better than FG.
 


Defeated Romanticist

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Eddiepops said:
meriwether said:
This of course, will happen.
Anyone who thinks that the Greens wont transfer in greater numbers to FF rather than anyone else next time is deluding themselves.
They're eating chips out of each other's knickers at the moment. Think how chummy they will be in 5 years time?

(This isn't a criticism, its simple logic. FF are the Greens friend at the moment. You're going to be nice to your friend, and give him seconf preferences, aren't you?)
That's the parliamentary party, not the membership or the voter base. They feel no differently now than they did before. I'm still yet to meet a party member or voter who will give FF a preference. Just because this government hasn't been utterly disastrous, doesn't make us chums. Green voters will probably continue to transfer where they've always transfered - Labour, the left in general and FG to a certain extent. All the best parts of the government that Greens and green leaners like so far have come from our ministers, the developments or lack of them in health, the budget, etc have not set our knickers alight. John and Eamon and Trevor can be as good in a rainbow as they are in a FF led government and I don't see votes changing next time.
Look at the PDs in Dublin South, The most virilantly anti-FF branch in the country with the most liberal left memberhip who frankly could care what the M3 is doing to the money supply transferred almost half their votes to Maria Corrigan(FF). If the other FF ministers were open for transfers at that stage the rate of PD transfers to FF would have been higher yet. The GP voters won't transfer FF out of any great love but to get the govt re-elected.
 

Defeated Romanticist

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hiding behind a poster said:
[quote="Defeated Romanticist":236s3ydb]

It doesn't matter what the other parties do.
:roll: You see, you're just deluded, DR. Every party has known for some time that Harney won't run in 2012. Her territory around Rathcoole/Newcastle is being fought over like Verdun in WW1, by ALL the parties. And it is a personal vote - whether you like it or not.

All FF need to do is win the 2/3rds, even a half of the Harney vote and the two seats are in the bag, hold their own and they're home.
No, they need more than that. Look at the figures.[/quote:236s3ydb]
HBAP, look at the figures, even for arguments sake a 60:40 split between the second FFer and FG would elect the 2nd FFer. FFS Moriarty finished 150 votes behind FG last time!

[quote:236s3ydb]Geography doesn't matter in such a small constituency
If you think that, go find a tallyman from DMW. Look at the Rathcoole/Newcastle boxes. Seriously, DR - you haven't a clue.[/quote:236s3ydb]
So unimportant that two of the leading candidates could afford to live outside the constituency.
[quote:236s3ydb]I mean God, HBAP, even a PDs' poster has admitted that the seat will probably be gained by FF.
Cool. One person's opinion. Not many here seem to agree, other than you. So what makes your opinion so valuable?[/quote:236s3ydb]
Not many people are aroused by this HBAP, only the severly anally retentive.


[quote:236s3ydb]No, what it means is that because the lefty type vote is so splintered, they will leak votes throught the counts, and the strongest one will finish as runner up. The anti-govt block won two seats because their vote was evenly split and the FF vote was focused on electing one TD so the finger was left firmly in as the party concentrated elsewhere.
You see, there you go again - this is utter nonsense, DR. Basically your argument in every constituency is "everyone else will f*ck things up rightly, and meanwhile the great and mighty FF machine will stroll home. Oh, and no-one else has notice there's an extra seat. We'll have taken it before anyone has even spotted that." Now, back to your view of Dublin West. I'd remind you that, had DW been a 4-seater last time, Higgins would still have comfortably taken the 4th seat ahead of Gallagher. Lenihan gave back just a 60% transfer rate, which suggests managing the vote would have been tricky - it always is in rural areas anyway. What you're suggesting can only happen if FF gain a lot of extra votes from somewhere, without anyone else doing so. And you've yet to suggest why this might happen. Now I don't dispute that its POSSIBLE for FF to take two seats there - but its not the cakewalk you think it is - particularly when your theory requires a substantial swing to FF at a time when their long term trend vote is declining. [/quote:236s3ydb]
I replied to that in my last post.



[quote:236s3ydb]Just about every constitueny in the country has FF votes going in a greater margin to LP over FG where applicable. Ofcourse this is dependent on a sood LP candidate, and that will rely on what happens next June.
[/quote:236s3ydb]

This refers to Kerry South - but for Labour to overtake FG there, they need a HUGE balance of the FF/IND FF transfers - and there's no evidence of that happening. They need thousands - and probably with a first time candidate versus a sitting TD, with all the advantages for picking up transfers that the latter has. You also clearly know nothing about the geography of Kerry South. [/quote]
You don't know who that LP candidate will be, we are talking about an FG backbencher in a weak part of the country ending his first term, the usual time when they fall arse over tit.
 

greengoddess

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Dunny said:
We dont get them cos we dont eat enough muesli...DUH its simple
Dunny, you and your muesli jokes again. I absolurly loathe it and I eat steak. I alos think there will be Green to FF transfers among certain categories of voters incldung the "new constituency" of voters mentioned in the Business Post poll. I would love to know what the profile of these are. What worries me more is
the whether FF will transfer to Green
 

turdsl

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You know i had fogotten about McDowell until i saw his name agin i am delighted,the man who was able to tell everyone their businness and not able to mind his own seat. how lucky we were.
 

Dunny

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greengoddess said:
Dunny said:
We dont get them cos we dont eat enough muesli...DUH its simple
Dunny, you and your muesli jokes again. I absolurly loathe it and I eat steak. I alos think there will be Green to FF transfers among certain categories of voters incldung the "new constituency" of voters mentioned in the Business Post poll. I would love to know what the profile of these are. What worries me more is
the whether FF will transfer to Green
Greengoddess,

Im sure you eat lots of steak ;)

As for FF transfering to the Greens, I will be giving them my 3rd preference in the next GE and my 6th preference in the Kells TC Elections and my 4th prefernece in the Kells LEA Co Co Elections...Happy?
 

thegeneral

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Eddiepops said:
meriwether said:
This of course, will happen.
Anyone who thinks that the Greens wont transfer in greater numbers to FF rather than anyone else next time is deluding themselves.
They're eating chips out of each other's knickers at the moment. Think how chummy they will be in 5 years time?

(This isn't a criticism, its simple logic. FF are the Greens friend at the moment. You're going to be nice to your friend, and give him seconf preferences, aren't you?)
That's the parliamentary party, not the membership or the voter base. They feel no differently now than they did before. I'm still yet to meet a party member or voter who will give FF a preference. Just because this government hasn't been utterly disastrous, doesn't make us chums. Green voters will probably continue to transfer where they've always transfered - Labour, the left in general and FG to a certain extent. All the best parts of the government that Greens and green leaners like so far have come from our ministers, the developments or lack of them in health, the budget, etc have not set our knickers alight. John and Eamon and Trevor can be as good in a rainbow as they are in a FF led government and I don't see votes changing next time.
FG hate you Eddie. You have supped with the Devil and the Blueshirts hate; anyone who follows Irish politics or history knows that. They hope to eat you in 2012. By contrast we'd be happy with keeping as many Greens in the Dáil as possible as you act as a new buffer to hold off FG growth. There are areas of Government policy certainly where further reforms and improvements are needed but as a whole the Government has been far from disastrous thus far and the close working relationship has surprised and angered our critics and opponents. When you attend more FF senior or Ogra conferences you'll get to realise we don't have 2 heads and know how to use indoor toilets and, most importantly, that we're much better craic than the other shower.
 

Quant

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thegeneral said:
FG hate you Eddie. You have supped with the Devil and the Blueshirts hate; anyone who follows Irish politics or history knows that. They hope to eat you in 2012. By contrast we'd be happy with keeping as many Greens in the Dáil as possible as you act as a new buffer to hold off FG growth.
Do you seriously mean to imply that FG are going to target Green seats more aggressively than FF? We're all rivals when it comes to elections. Presumably you'd only be "happy" with Green TDs so long as they don't take seats that would otherwise go FF's way?

thegeneral said:
...as you act as a new buffer to hold off FG growth.
Really? How do you know that? Are you assuming, like your FG buddies do oh-so-patronisingly, that people who vote Green are just lost FG voters? For the record, I've met FAR more people from FF backgrounds in the GP than FG, and if the Greens folded tomorrow, I wouldn't dream of voting FF/FG.

thegeneral said:
There are areas of Government policy certainly where further reforms and improvements are needed but as a whole the Government has been far from disastrous thus far and the close working relationship has surprised and angered our critics and opponents. When you attend more FF senior or Ogra conferences you'll get to realise we don't have 2 heads and know how to use indoor toilets and, most importantly, that we're much better craic than the other shower.
Well that's damning with faint praise, isn't it!
I'm sure most FFers are quite nice people; it doesn't mean I want to see Minister B Cooper-Flynn after the next election.
 

Eddiepops

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thegeneral said:
FG hate you Eddie. You have supped with the Devil and the Blueshirts hate; anyone who follows Irish politics or history knows that. They hope to eat you in 2012. By contrast we'd be happy with keeping as many Greens in the Dáil as possible as you act as a new buffer to hold off FG growth. There are areas of Government policy certainly where further reforms and improvements are needed but as a whole the Government has been far from disastrous thus far and the close working relationship has surprised and angered our critics and opponents. When you attend more FF senior or Ogra conferences you'll get to realise we don't have 2 heads and know how to use indoor toilets and, most importantly, that we're much better craic than the other shower.
Well, this is true, and sure we've not too much love for FG. Policy wise we can disagree with them as much as we can with FF. I think most of it is a clean government issue, something that is often key to Green voters (if my canvassing experiences are anything to go by) and on that grounds they tend to rate FG and Labour higher than FF (if we look at where Green transfers go). From the last election, it is absolutely remarkable how little FF transfers we get in almost every constituency. There's an apples and oranges aspect to the relationship; most FF voters and supporters just seem to think we're from a different planet, talking about issues they can't identify with and often running off stereotypical images of us that date from the 70's. I don't know, I suppose we'll see in the locals.

The government has been far from disatrous, it's true. But the first few months were not good ones let's not forget. Pay rises for ministers, more junior ministers, Mahon turmoil, etc etc. All made for some very uncomfortable reading. And I think a lot of us were thinking it might not have been the same in a rainbow.

In regards to the last part, it's possibly true, I even have some 'FF' friends ( although I'd never introduce them to my mother...)
 

Dunny

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Eddiepops said:
Well, this is true, and sure we've not too much love for FG. Policy wise we can disagree with them as much as we can with FF. I think most of it is a clean government issue, something that is often key to Green voters (if my canvassing experiences are anything to go by) and on that grounds they tend to rate FG and Labour higher than FF (if we look at where Green transfers go). From the last election, it is absolutely remarkable how little FF transfers we get in almost every constituency. There's an apples and oranges aspect to the relationship; most FF voters and supporters just seem to think we're from a different planet, talking about issues they can't identify with and often running off stereotypical images of us that date from the 70's. I don't know, I suppose we'll see in the locals.
You dont get many transfers because our candidates stay in the race longer than other parties i.e. we are fighting for seats.

[quote:3o7iwjik]In regards to the last part, it's possibly true, I even have some 'FF' friends ( although I'd never introduce them to my mother...
[/quote:3o7iwjik]

Charming lol ;)
 

smitchy2

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I think you should be more concerned what ye hold onto.
The next election is coming to be a point at a very different economic situation.
People will begin to realise that despite unprecedented growth many of the same problems exist after 15 years of populist governance without real strategy in many areas.
Only problem is FF can only be replaced by a clone of themselves in FG with slight tweaks with no fundamental difference.
 

sandar

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If Greens have any sense at the next election they will transfer to FF 3 and FG 2 or vice versa dependsing on the constituency, and not to other parties.
The ideal scenario for the Greens is that they can make either Kenny or Cowen Taoiseach,, that way they are negotiating from a position of strength. The last thing the Greens need to do is tranfers to Labour or the PDs ofr Indos
The more seats Laboru have the less relevant the Greens would be in any possible rainbow government, they need to be strong enough to block a possible FG/Lab Government.
The Greens should transfer to FG ahead of FF simply because if FF gain many more seats they wont need the Greens, whereas in all Likelihood FG will need the Greens, and having too strong possible suitors is the best possible option.
Also the weaker Labour are the less enticing they will be to FF for 2 reasons, 1. They would not offer the kind of huge majority which is the main justification for an FF/ Lab coalition at present, and if the the gap in seats between Lab and the Greens is comparatively small then FF would choose the Greens anyway as they would be the safer option, having already worked with the government.
 

jo9jo

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will FF surprise us all at the next election ?
OK, they will not win an overall majority but they will hoover up a lot of the seats currently held by independent and Labour TDs.
Some household names like John O Donoghue and Mary Hanifin will make a comeback.
After the next election will we see a FF party with nigh on 35 seats and being the junior partner in a government led by either Pearce Doherty or Mary Lou McDonald.
Could it happen ?
I think the 35 seat target is doable and if the swing go in favour of FF, they could quite possible end up with 50 seats.
 


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