Filling out the ballot paper.

hiding behind a poster

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(4) Of course there's a difference. If a candidate got a hundred thousand #2s and no #1s they would be eliminated in first count by a candidate with a single #1 and no other votes at all.
Unless someone else exceeded the quota on the first count.
 


Baron von Biffo

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Biffo, can you explain how transfers are distributed? Are there circumstances where there is a distribution of a random sample of a person's vote?

If someone has 1,000 votes and is elected because the quota is 800, are 200 distributed or the full 1,000?
It depends on whether the surplus arises on the first or subsequent count.

I've done out a series of posts on the count Process and put them in a separate thread here.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Also it seems that if you vote number 1 for a heavy favourite it is very possible that based on the sampling method described, your vote might not travel beyond that.

Maybe give your second favourite a number 1 in such circumstances? (Obviously if everybody did that your favourite would not be elected...But they wouldn't all do that)
That's one of the reasons why parties trying to win multiple seats will ask some voters to give the less likely winner on the party ticket the No.1 vote - it definitely counts in that scenario, whereas their 2 only might count if distributed as part of a surplus.
 

ShoutingIsLeadership

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That's one of the reasons why parties trying to win multiple seats will ask some voters to give the less likely winner on the party ticket the No.1 vote - it definitely counts in that scenario, whereas their 2 only might count if distributed as part of a surplus.
What's the FG feeling on the ground today?
 

hiding behind a poster

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What's the FG feeling on the ground today?
I don't know, I haven't really been talking to people today. I was canvassing a lot until before last weekend, but not since, and the feeling I was getting that it wasn't as bad as the polls were saying. Sure, we were getting grief from some people, but you get that in every election, and most people with experience can make an approximate comparison with previous elections in terms of better/worse. I'm wondering if there's a bit of Shy Tory Syndrome (see UK, 1992) at play in the opinion polls. Not massively, but a bit.
 

neiphin

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That's one of the reasons why parties trying to win multiple seats will ask some voters to give the less likely winner on the party ticket the No.1 vote - it definitely counts in that scenario, whereas their 2 only might count if distributed as part of a surplus.
isnt this what happened SF in donegal in 16' ?
 

Baron von Biffo

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You mean in terms of its value as a vote, I presume. There's obviously a difference in the higher preferences are more likely to be used
Yes obviously.

I put that in because I've often heard things to the effect that - 'I didn't vote for him but I gave him a preference'.

Really, you should only use numbers because if you use a tick or an X against more than one candidate then the ballot will be declared invalid.
The Supreme court, although it hasn't definitively ruled, suggests otherwise:-

"Thus, it may well be reasonable for a returning officer to interpret a ballot paper which contains an “X” followed by a “2”, “3” and “4” as representing a ballot paper with a clear first preference in favour of the candidate opposite whose name the “X” appears."

Kiely -v- Kerry County Council : Judgments & Determinations : Courts Service of Ireland
 

Baron von Biffo

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Also it seems that if you vote number 1 for a heavy favourite it is very possible that based on the sampling method described, your vote might not travel beyond that.

Maybe give your second favourite a number 1 in such circumstances? (Obviously if everybody did that your favourite would not be elected...But they wouldn't all do that)
You only have one vote. Assuming you don't spoil it it will at any point in the count, be in one of 3 places:-

Part of the quota of an elected candidate,

Part of the total for a remaining candidate,

In the non-transferable pile.
 

seanof

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You only have one vote. Assuming you don't spoil it it will at any point in the count, be in one of 3 places:-

Part of the quota of an elected candidate,

Part of the total for a remaining candidate,

In the non-transferable pile.
In light of the above, am I correct in thinking that, if I vote all the way down the ballot paper and my last preferred candidate still remains in contention at the final count, that my vote benefits that candidate?
 

neiphin

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In light of the above, am I correct in thinking that, if I vote all the way down the ballot paper and my last preferred candidate still remains in contention at the final count, that my vote benefits that candidate?
you think that there will be 15 counts ?
 

seanof

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you think that there will be 15 counts ?
I'm seeking information on the intricacies of the PRSTV system and looking forward to a reply from Baron von Biffo, who seems to be something of an authority on the subject, to my question in post #32 above.
 

Baron von Biffo

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In light of the above, am I correct in thinking that, if I vote all the way down the ballot paper and my last preferred candidate still remains in contention at the final count, that my vote benefits that candidate?
If your last preference is counted it's because every other candidate has been elected or eliminated so it's irrelevant whether you marked it.
 

Half Nelson

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I noticed the polling officer was checking the ID of all the young people while ignoring the older voters.
Was there a general instruction issued?
 

seanof

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If your last preference is counted it's because every other candidate has been elected or eliminated so it's irrelevant whether you marked it.
Thank you. Therefore, am I correct in thinking that my second last preference, again assuming that I vote all the way down the paper, might benefit my second last preferential candidate? It looks so to me.
 

Baron von Biffo

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Thank you. Therefore, am I correct in thinking that my second last preference, again assuming that I vote all the way down the paper, might benefit my second last preferential candidate? It looks so to me.
There would be just 2 candidates left at that stage and your vote would obviously favour one over the other.
 

Orbit v2

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The Supreme court, although it hasn't definitively ruled, suggests otherwise:-

"Thus, it may well be reasonable for a returning officer to interpret a ballot paper which contains an “X” followed by a “2”, “3” and “4” as representing a ballot paper with a clear first preference in favour of the candidate opposite whose name the “X” appears."

Kiely -v- Kerry County Council : Judgments & Determinations : Courts Service of Ireland
Interesting, but what I meant was that someone who puts say three X's on a ballot meaning these are the three people I think should get the three seats (in this 3 seat constituency) would have their ballot declared invalid.

But, the case you mention above shows that returning officers (and the courts) really go out of their way to try and interpret what people mean, when it would be a lot simpler if people just put numbers starting with "1" on their ballot.
 


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