Final Bill for the Banks

Dreaded_Estate

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Based on the statements tonight it looks likely the "final" bill for the banks will not in fact be the final bill.

ECB/IMF will be in later this week to assess the situation. We are about €45bn now with the potential for another €5bn or so. So when the numbers are totted up what is the likely "final cost" going to be?

-€50bn
-€60bn
-€70bn

-€100bn?
 


Machdaddy

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€80 billion at least.A.I.B. is in huge trouble and they dont know how big the hole is.
 

Holy Cow

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Its going to be north of €100 billion. This was known 2 years back when FF put this on the backs of the taxpayers.

FF are traitors. They have ruined the country, and they must be made pay a heavy price for their actions.
 

Dreaded_Estate

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Was it?

Who knew it was 100 billion and how do you know they knew?
What is your estimate of the total recap

The current estimate are approximately.
BOI - €3bn
AIB - €8bn
Anglo - €29bn
INBS - €5bn
Total - €45bn

Do you think any or all will be revised upwards? Or are you willing to provide a forecast.
 

GDPR

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What is your estimate of the total recap

The current estimate are approximately.
BOI - €3bn
AIB - €8bn
Anglo - €29bn
INBS - €5bn
Total - €45bn

Do you think any or all will be revised upwards? Or are you willing to provide a forecast.
My forecast would be as useful as any outsiders, in other words, not very.

My guess is that it will end up as you quote above with the 11 billion for BoI & AIB coming back over time.
 

grassroots

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AIB will be close on 12bn, I think.

NAMA will probably lose 5bn

I would think 55-60bn is ballpark-a third of pre crisis GDP?
 

Dreaded_Estate

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My forecast would be as useful as any outsiders, in other words, not very.

My guess is that it will end up as you quote above with the 11 billion for BoI & AIB coming back over time.

That is exceptionally optimistic tonic, care to place a wage on it? We still have the Anglo €30bn one outstanding as well.
 

Kevin Parlon

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What happens to AIB shareholders in the event of the state taking it private? This isn't a moral question but a technical one. Let's say you buy 1,000 share in AIB tomorrow morning. The bank becomes "nationalised" (does this mean 100% owned by the government or majority owned?) Would you at a later date be issued with some measure of shares in the new entity when the bank is refoated or would you lose the lot?
 

GDPR

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That is exceptionally optimistic tonic, care to place a wage on it? We still have the Anglo €30bn one outstanding as well.
I don't think it's optimistic, I think based on the information we have, it's realistic and I also think one bet at a time is the best bet.
 

Dreaded_Estate

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What happens to AIB shareholders in the event of the state taking it private? This isn't a moral question but a technical one. Let's say you buy 1,000 share in AIB tomorrow morning. The bank becomes "nationalised" (does this mean 100% owned by the government or majority owned?) Would you at a later date be issued with some measure of shares in the new entity when the bank is refoated or would you lose the lot?
You probably wouldn't lose everything but could get massively diluted.

So say if you owned 1% of AIB before the recapitalization you may own 0.05% after recapitalization.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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I heard a prediction from an economist over the weekend of €250 Billion.
 

Kevin Parlon

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You probably wouldn't lose everything but could get massively diluted.

So say if you owned 1% of AIB before the recapitalization you may own 0.05% after recapitalization.
Thanks D-E. Is that path a certaintly now for AIB or is it possible it may continue to trade as a going concern; albeit with a rather large hole in it's books and a long term depressed share price?
 

Indy-pendant

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Was it?

Who knew it was 100 billion and how do you know they knew?
Oh my freaking God. One more time:
Either they didn't know (= incompetent) or they lied (= dishonest)
Take your pick... which one will you go for?
 

EvotingMachine0197

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Lads. I'm feckng lost on this. I fail to see why there is so much ambiguity.

Why not get the Annual Reports for all six banks for 2007 and look at current assets

Then mark them down according to NAMA tranch I rates or best knowledge rates:

My Guess

AIB -35%
BOI -30%
Anglo -80%
INBS - 80%
IPBS -30%
EBS - 70%

They are the losses before NAMA recoveries IMO.

Big money. Anglo's loan book was 80 Bn at the height. So 64 Bn Lost.

It's a simple excel job.
 

GDPR

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Oh my freaking God. One more time:
Either they didn't know (= incompetent) or they lied (= dishonest)
Take your pick... which one will you go for?
You didn't make the original post so it's not your question to answer, but if you're going to reply, at least try to answer the question asked.

On your own post such as it is, you think not knowing the bill would be 100 billion was incompetent, yet here we are, two years & much investigation later and still no one who has looked has put that figure on it. What figures Elderfield has put on it, you choose not to believe for unspecified reasons, but offer no alternative measure and yet I'm supposed to take your view on incompetence or dishonesty seriously.
 


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