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NewGoldDream

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F

Faillandia

That's very odd. I have no doubt that Michael Martin would go into coalition with SF given the numbers. But to admit it now would deprive FF of their anti-SF rhetoric. Other FFers would get this so why are they making an issue of it?

It could just be the Irish Independent making stuff up again. One quote from Collins and one from a TD who didn't want to be named? I'd be fairly sure the second source doesn't exist. If this was in the Times or the Examiner we could assume it was based on something but sadly we can't believe the Indo about anything.
 

NewGoldDream

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That's very odd. I have no doubt that Michael Martin would go into coalition with SF given the numbers. But to admit it now would deprive FF of their anti-SF rhetoric. Other FFers would get this so why are they making an issue of it?

It could just be the Irish Independent making stuff up again.
Given the numbers and circumstances. And that would be true about every party. Given the numbers and circumstances. Oh they'll say "circumstances then...but circumstances now..." if they have to do a u turn, but they'll of whatever is best for their long term strategy.

You are also correct in observing that it's one quote from Niall Collins. It was a lot to hang a story on.
 

eoinmcneil

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So many sleepless nights...will we wink and tell SF to call over, won't we, oooooooooooooooooo it's so exciting...
Don't mean to have two threads going at the same time (no one was paying any attention in this one), so this will be last word on this thread.

You are very sanguine about this. Thats to be expected, you are a core supporter. But soft voters are a different proposition, if the actual performance of the middle parties in other european 3 party systems counts for much.
 

Mary Who

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SF will eventually be in government but probably with FF.
Yes I agree . Sinn Fein will eventually be in Government with either F.F. or F.G. and that will be their undoing. The opposition benches are a far more comfortable place in which to be.
 

Analyzer

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FG and SF ?

Which SF ?

Official or Provisional ?
 

Fr.Ted Crilly

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FG and SF ?

Which SF ?

Official or Provisional ?

I think FG prefer the party whose leadership have close associations with members of the OIRA........

Nobody ever seems to enquire about that though....
 

DeGaulle 2.0

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Reopening a very old discussion because I can’t start a new one and wanted to ask a question regarding FG’s strategy up to and particularly during the next election and Sinn Fein.

With Labour’s implosion the mathematics of coalition mean there are 3 leading scenarios in decreasing order of [solely mathematical ] possibility : FG/FF, FG/ST, FF/SF.

From an ideology perspective the least likely would seem to be FG/SF . Utterly aside from the national question, the positions taken over the economy in the last few years are diametrically opposed. So that leaves the other 2.

Given this, is there some fertile electoral ground for FG in pursuing the Anti Sinn fein vote ? –going back to “a vote for FF/anyone apart from FG opens the door to SF”. At least in theory, there is an opportunity to get FF in a pincer movement where its “soft “ voters [ those north of 17%] feel they need to put their money where their mouth is rather than trust the leadership after the election.
I'll have a go..
Questions: 1. would the fine Gael leadership categorically rule out coalition with SF? Where we stand now it seems a statement of the obvious.
I think they probably will but I don't think this really matters - no-one expects FG and SF to go into coalition anyway.
2. How big is that ABSF vote- 30%? 40%? 50% Going down all the time I guess, but clearly still very substantial , on either a national question or economic basis.
I think that it is quite big and that how big depends on whether Adams is leader or not. It was noticeable that SF were very poor at attracting transfers at the recent Dublin West by-election - it may be more a Dublin phenomonen that a national one.
3. Is the assumption that FF wouldn’t close the door to SF coalition correct?
I think FF are in a vulnerable position. If it came down to it I think their preferred option would be to support a minority FG govt for a year or two and hope something turned up (a reverse "Tallaght strategy").
Not interested in any “yiz’ll be slawthered” responses…
There is a general question about whether, if you have 3 roughly equal-sized parties, A, B and C, with B in the centre ... is it possible for B to survive? If both A and C can move towards the centre while keeping their base, then B has no-where to go.
 

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