Fine Gael opens up large lead over Fianna Fáil in latest poll.

Wascurito

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 18, 2017
Messages
7,298
One largely ignored aspect of the RTÉ exit poll from last night was the voting intentions of those polled in a general election. So ignored is this aspect of the poll that I can't find any reference to the actual figures anywhere online. All I have is this photo taken with the phone from RTÉ's referendum coverage.

Fine Gael has a 9.3% lead over Fianna Fáil which gets well into double digits when the don't knows are excluded. There is clearly no chance of FF catching FG any time soon. FF's main challenge will be to keep ahead of Sinn Féin and with Mary Lou McDonald now a more popular leader than Micheál Martin, even that might prove too much for the party that once saw itself as the "natural party of government".

 


Hitchcock

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
8,781
One largely ignored aspect of the RTÉ exit poll from last night was the voting intentions of those polled in a general election. So ignored is this aspect of the poll that I can't find any reference to the actual figures anywhere online. All I have is this photo taken with the phone from RTÉ's referendum coverage.

Fine Gael has a 9.3% lead over Fianna Fáil which gets well into double digits when the don't knows are excluded. There is clearly no chance of FF catching FG any time soon. FF's main challenge will be to keep ahead of Sinn Féin and with Mary Lou McDonald now a more popular leader than Micheál Martin, even that might prove too much for the party that once saw itself as the "natural party of government".

The DKs are very big and distort the poll a bit. No SF bounce either - FG/SF coalition on the cards, SF seem to be pushing hard in that direction.
 

HarshBuzz

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 28, 2008
Messages
11,815
The DKs are very big and distort the poll a bit. No SF bounce either - FG/SF coalition on the cards, SF seem to be pushing hard in that direction.
That would be a strange coalition to say the least.

What % do FG need to hit to be looking at 65 seats?
 

Niall996

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 5, 2011
Messages
11,823
I think Varadkars strong stance on the border re Brexit has nullified Sinn Fein’s claim to the UI issue. He’s on a roll. Irish unity, tick, modernism, tick, social liberalism, tick, EU partnership, tick.
 

Franzoni

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2010
Messages
16,328
A lot of people must be happy with the issues around the HSE and paying anything upwards to two grand a month in rent so....
 

Wascurito

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 18, 2017
Messages
7,298
The DKs are very big and distort the poll a bit. No SF bounce either - FG/SF coalition on the cards, SF seem to be pushing hard in that direction.
Stranger things have happened......but not too many. I'm thinking of the Marie Celeste saga and The Roswell Incident. :)
 

ruserious

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 3, 2011
Messages
29,092
I think Varadkars strong stance on the border re Brexit has nullified Sinn Fein’s claim to the UI issue. He’s on a roll. Irish unity, tick, modernism, tick, social liberalism, tick, EU partnership, tick.
Just as Brian Cowen was handed power by his predecessor at the worst possible time, it seems Leo may have been handed power in the best possible time to make real lasting change for Ireland. I hope he uses it well. He and Simon have my full support on their Brexit negotiations.
 

Sync

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 27, 2009
Messages
28,894
Needs to be a lot of FG polling on the under 24s to asses a) their preference and b) likelihood to vote. Jumping too soon would be a mistake.

They’ll certainly benefit in that demo with getting this done and ssm done. But will that demo actually show up to vote?
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,642
SF will be disappointed that they didnt get more of a bounce for the biggest youth turnout they are likely to get. Labour's decline continues.
 

Wascurito

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 18, 2017
Messages
7,298
A lot of people must be happy with the issues around the HSE and paying anything upwards to two grand a month in rent so....
The rent thing isn't such an issue outside of Dublin.
 

HarshBuzz

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 28, 2008
Messages
11,815
Its going to be FG/SF.

Been telling you this for years.
So what would the FG\SF policy menu look like?

They've got two very different sets of voters to pander to. SF I think would find it very difficult to sell a 'steady as she goes' agenda.
 

gleeful

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 7, 2016
Messages
7,520
Good news for Fine Gael. Could it be a FG-DK coalition next time?

Who's the leader of the "Don't Know" party?
 

Wascurito

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 18, 2017
Messages
7,298
Its going to be FG/SF.

Been telling you this for years.
Mary Lou has been softening her cough a lot lately. It'll be interesting to see if she and Leo reengage in those sparring matches in the Dáil now that the 8th amendment referendum is done and dusted.

Were it not for Leo's proclivities, there could have been the makings of a proper Mills & Boon novel there. :lol:
 

Wascurito

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 18, 2017
Messages
7,298
Good news for Fine Gael. Could it be a FG-DK coalition next time?

Who's the leader of the "Don't Know" party?
Don't Know.

Imagine calling a party after the leader. #OhTheHubris
 

GDPR

1
Joined
Jul 5, 2008
Messages
217,846
Mary Lou has been softening her cough a lot lately. It'll be interesting to see if she and Leo reengage in those sparring matches in the Dáil now that the 8th amendment referendum is done and dusted.

Were it not for Leo's proclivities, there could have been the makings of a proper Mills & Boon novel there. :lol:
Dont laugh. I will be proved right on this one.
 

Wascurito

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 18, 2017
Messages
7,298
Needs to be a lot of FG polling on the under 24s to asses a) their preference and b) likelihood to vote. Jumping too soon would be a mistake.

They’ll certainly benefit in that demo with getting this done and ssm done. But will that demo actually show up to vote?
Labour learned to their cost in 2016 that being associated with a popular referendum decision does NOT translate into votes in a general election.
 

HarshBuzz

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 28, 2008
Messages
11,815


New Threads

Most Replies

Top