Full-House website. Election predictions HQ

davehiggz

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full-house

This site has been mentioned in a couple of posts but I thought I'd give it its own thread. It's a very good website.

I urge everyone here to sign up and add their predictions for each constituency. If more people do it then the accuracy of the overall prediction increases. This could go a long way in seeing the make-up of the new Dáil before it's elected.

Current predictions can be found on their Stats page
full-house

Fine Gael at 69-70 seats is very interesting and I know it's something that most people wouldn't think possible. If you disagree go constituency by constituency and add your analysis. Labour looks to double their seats and Fianna Fáil is facing meltdown.
 


FloatingVoterTralee

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Strangely, FF's tally has increased 4 seats since Sunday.
 

Ignoreland

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The main inaccuracy is that people may be driven by what they WANT to happened as opposed to what they THINK will happen. But it's good to see that they're offering prizes for accuracy. That should make people think realistically.
The beauty of an electoral system is that if enough people WANT a certain outcome then this is what WILL happen! So this could still be accurate.
 

davehiggz

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is there any way of viewing opinions by constituency?
No, but you could send them a message. They're looking for feedback especially on the accuracy of their ballot papers. Kildare North and Dublin North West for example are missing second Labour candidates. As a result my Labour tally is two less.

The beauty of an electoral system is that if enough people WANT a certain outcome then this is what WILL happen! So this could still be accurate.
Yes well try getting a few million people onto a small website to vote in all 43 constituencies and not just their own :)
 

civilserpant

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Oct 21, 2010
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I quite enjoyed that.. surprisingly I came out with 70 FG, 35, which I think is about 10 too high for FG and at least 5 too low for FG. Had Ff on 46. I think name recognition will save many seats.

FG have the advantage of announced established candidates in each area, whereas a lot of the Labour names are total newcomers with little record, so hard to gauge.
 

ppthree

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Nov 24, 2010
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Thanks a mil for putting the thread up.
Our blog will be running some articles on the features of the site over the coming days just so you can get the full benefit out of it!
Just a note: the stats are generated every night, rather than real-time (was too slow)

Enjoy!

----
full-house
predict the election, stay informed, win prizes, simple!
 

Dillon Country

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Oct 25, 2008
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Thanks Dave. Just registered there. Seems a good site, particularly when the lists of candidates become clearer.
 

ppthree

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Nov 24, 2010
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If anyone has any suggestions as to interesting stats we could add, please let us know.

Some ideas we're working on;
  • non-party candidates most predicted to get a seat
  • party support - percentage of predictions rather than seats
  • party support over time (line graph)

thanks

----
full-house
predict the election, stay informed, win prizes, simple!
 

locke

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Average prediction for party seats per constituency might be an interesting one.
 

ppthree

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We were kind of avoiding that one, Locke.
We want to keep the predictions somewhat independent and if I was to show the average on a per constituency basis, there would be a tendency for people to go with the crowd (where they're not sure).

----
full-house
predict the election, stay informed, win prizes, simple!
 

gijoe

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Jul 26, 2010
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If anyone has any suggestions as to interesting stats we could add, please let us know.

Some ideas we're working on;
  • non-party candidates most predicted to get a seat
  • party support - percentage of predictions rather than seats
  • party support over time (line graph)

thanks

----
full-house
predict the election, stay informed, win prizes, simple!
One suggestion I would have would be to cross tabulate the predictions for the constituency which people state they live in so that you could show an overall prediction and a separate one for those who live in the constituency and then compare and contrast.

In a 5 seater it might look like people predicting FG 2.2 seats, FF 1.4 seats, Labour 1.6 seats, SF 0.6 seats etc etc.

Just a suggestion.
 

gijoe

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We were kind of avoiding that one, Locke.
We want to keep the predictions somewhat independent and if I was to show the average on a per constituency basis, there would be a tendency for people to go with the crowd (where they're not sure).

----
full-house
predict the election, stay informed, win prizes, simple!
Just a question. Can you change your prediction up until the board gets locked at a set time such as at midnight prior to voting commencing?
 

ppthree

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Nov 24, 2010
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gijoe, already on the stats page we have the overall average prediction (national view) and the prediction of those who live in each constituency (local view).

You can change your vote as many times as you like, until the cut-off time (tbd)

----
full-house
predict the election, stay informed, win prizes, simple!
 

Gauloises

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Jun 28, 2010
Messages
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Great site, very enjoyable few minutes. I got:

FG - 63
Lab - 42
FF- 34
SF - 11
ULA - 7
Green - 1
Ind/CC - 8

Interesting Dail by the looks of things. 3 parties with speaking rights in the Opposition and maybe a fourth with a technical group of Independents. One thing that struck me when going constituency to constituency was the local FF candidates who may be given an easy ride because they're perceived to be different from the party
itself.

Edit - The Greens got one seat.... Sargeant
 
Last edited:

Hooch

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Apr 6, 2010
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Jesus the Greens are gone.
 


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