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Galway East: call the GE results


statsman

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Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
56,218
This is a thread for informed local discussion to predict who will take the seats. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

The current candidates are:

Deputy Sean Canney (Indo)
Deputy Ciaran Cannon (Fine Gael)

Cllr. Pete Roche (Fine Gael)
Deputy Anne Rabbitte (Fianna Fáil)
Peter Reid (Social Democrats)
Neil O’Mahony (Renua)

Looks a bit like a non change job?
 


Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
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52,186
Status quo. 1 FF, 1 Ind, and 1 FG. There were approx 1300 votes between Connaughton and Canney last time at end.
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
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56,218
Definitely no change here?
 

Cato

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Aug 21, 2005
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20,559
Canney is taking a lot of flack for his continuing opposition to the Tuam to Athenry Greenway - Pete Roach is quite popular and may just take a second for Fine Gael in the constituency. Fianna Fáil may end up adding a second candidate in the north of the constituency or from around the Athenry area but I cannot see them taking two and Rabbitte should hold.
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
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56,218
Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
Messages
56,218
The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

Cato

Moderator
Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
20,559
Rabbitte is now in the running for Europe and is not just there to make up the quota. Doubtful that she will take a seat as an MEP but it would, needless to say, shake things up. However, she has irritated the local Fianna Fáil old-guard in Galway East with her run and they may not be disposed towards her in any General Election. It is notable that her man, the one who took her place on the council when she became a TD failed at the recent local election convention. Colm Keaveney was added on by Fianna Fáil after convention as a candidate in the local elections and is likely, if elected, to be a candidate at the next general election. It will be interesting to see if he can make a comeback. As to Fine Gael, Cannon is most likely safe. Canney is, as I said above, suffering a bit on the greenway issue but to what extent this will damage his support remains to be seen.
 

General Urko

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Joined
Oct 24, 2012
Messages
15,751
The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
Any updates on this?
 

General Urko

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Oct 24, 2012
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15,751
Any chance that the only man ever to represent 2 Troika Parties in Dail Eireann and also The Only FF TD to lose his seat last time out, The Great Colm Keaveney, will rear his head again?
 

General Urko

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Oct 24, 2012
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Any of The Kililea Clan in with a shout?
 

fifilawe

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Sep 25, 2017
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1,413
Any of The Kililea Clan in with a shout?
just what the country needs : dynastic gombeens , who don't give a monkey's about anything but to feather their own nests? We've had almost a century of this carry on and still the Hoi Polloi vote them in.We really are a bunch of "clan-based numpties" who expect " the system to change" but the people still don't like radicals or radical change.
All "conservative form of governance" will fail in the end , it is the nature of "Evolution" and the survival of the fittest/relevant..Our so-called social/identity politics and single issue topic is just window dressing, catered for the "loud minority" who are not going to improve living standards , health service, end corruption, challenge the monopolies in all sectors of business be it IT,telecoms, agriculture, education, etc............. .I don't see how allowing gay marriage and abortion are going to improve the standard of living for the 95% of people who have no attachment/relevance to either of these two topics.Purposely remains off the register as my vote is not going to make a difference as I am a conservative libertarian in my views and I have no regards for any political grouping be they a party or independents.
 

Cato

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Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
20,559
Any of The Kililea Clan in with a shout?
Donagh Killilea, son of Mark, is a sitting councilor and is seeking re-election. He should be safe enough.
 

fifilawe

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Joined
Sep 25, 2017
Messages
1,413
why has Killalackey spray painted out the names of his "colleagues from FFG" posters? I've noticed all the posters around the town I'm in with all the black spray paint over where his running gombeen mates should be.Is this deliberate ? an error? the plot thickens among the FFG Thickos.
 

seanof

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Joined
Mar 31, 2017
Messages
1,493
why has Killalackey spray painted out the names of his "colleagues from FFG" posters? I've noticed all the posters around the town I'm in with all the black spray paint over where his running gombeen mates should be.Is this deliberate ? an error? the plot thickens among the FFG Thickos.
Maybe it's recycling posters for environmental reasons?
 

fifilawe

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 25, 2017
Messages
1,413
It is not recycling posters because the date of the election is written on the posters.
 

Cato

Moderator
Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
20,559
They're old posters - the date on them is May 23rd, not the 24th. He's just recycled some old posters. He also has newer ones up with all of his valued party colleagues listed on them.
 

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