Galway west: call the GE results


statsman

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Feb 25, 2011
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This is a thread for informed local discussion to predict who will take the seats. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

The runners and riders so far are:

Deputy Eamon O'Cuiv (Fianna Fail)
Deputy Hildegrade Naughten (Fine Gael)
Deputy Sean Kyne (Fine Gael)
Deputy Noel Grealish (Indo)
Deputy Catherine Conolly (Indo)

Cllr. Niall McNelis (Labour)
Cllr. Mairéad Farrell (Sinn Féin)
Jessy Kelly (Jessy Ní Cheallaigh) (Solidarity)
Joe Loughnane (People Before Profit),
Niall O Tuathail (Social Democrats)
Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party)
Nicola Daveron (Renua)
Cllr Mike Cubbard (Independent)

You'd think the 2nd FG seat might be at risk here?
 
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WayOutWest

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This is a thread for informed local discussion to predict who will take the seats. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

The runners and riders so far are:

Deputy Eamon O'Cuiv
Deputy Hildegrade Naughten (Fine Gael)
Deputy Sean Kyne (Fine Gael)
Deputy Noel Grealish (Indo)
Deputy Catherine Conolly (Indo)

Cllr. Niall McNelis (Labour)
Cllr. Mairéad Farrell (Sinn Féin)
Jessy Kelly (Jessy Ní Cheallaigh) (Solidarity)
Joe Loughnane (People Before Profit),
Niall O Tuathail (Social Democrats)
Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party)
Nicola Daveron (Renua)
Cllr Mike Cubbard (Independent)

You'd think the 2nd FG seat might be here?
I see you haven’t given a party for O’Cuiv. Do you know something that you might share with us.
Has his trips up north affected his position.
 

Dame_Enda

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If FG couldn't win 3 seats in 2011 they are not going to in 2018. They were 1900 off a third seat last time. SF were 1100 seats off if the 5th seat. I think though that while Catherine Connolly TD (Ind) came fourth, she is still potentially vulnerable because Inds seem to be losing ground in recent polls. But on balance I predict status quo: 2 FG, 1 FF, 2 Inds.
 

statsman

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I see you haven’t given a party for O’Cuiv. Do you know something that you might share with us.
Has his trips up north affected his position.
Ooops.
 

WayOutWest

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This is a thread for informed local discussion to predict who will take the seats. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

The runners and riders so far are:

Deputy Eamon O'Cuiv (Fianna Fail)
Deputy Hildegrade Naughten (Fine Gael)
Deputy Sean Kyne (Fine Gael)
Deputy Noel Grealish (Indo)
Deputy Catherine Conolly (Indo)

Cllr. Niall McNelis (Labour)
Cllr. Mairéad Farrell (Sinn Féin)
Jessy Kelly (Jessy Ní Cheallaigh) (Solidarity)
Joe Loughnane (People Before Profit),
Niall O Tuathail (Social Democrats)
Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party)
Nicola Daveron (Renua)
Cllr Mike Cubbard (Independent)

You'd think the 2nd FG seat might be at risk here?ò
You’ve put O’Cuiv back as FF, maybe you should have left the party as blank.
 

hiding behind a poster

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If FG couldn't win 3 seats in 2011 they are not going to in 2018. They were 1900 off a third seat last time. SF were 1100 seats off if the 5th seat. I think though that while Catherine Connolly TD (Ind) came fourth, she is still potentially vulnerable because Inds seem to be losing ground in recent polls. But on balance I predict status quo: 2 FG, 1 FF, 2 Inds.
This is one of the places where Howlin's call for transfers could have most effect. If Labour can get ahead of the SDs they should then get a lot closer to Connolly. And as with so many Independent TDs her first-preference vote probably won't drop, but she mightn't have the glut of other Indo no-hopers running (and transferring to her) this time.
 

RelentlessApathy!

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Feb 16, 2018
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Catherine Connolly was slow getting her constituency work up to speed, but word is she's powering away serving city and south Connemara constituents. Hildegard has surprised people with her hospital campaign, and although she seemed vulnerable to start, and might even be still with the loss of O'Mahoney's south Mayo vote, she's not the worst bet to hang on either.

The rest are also rans, city types who think press release campaigning will get them a seat. Of particular note was the spectacular collapse of SF's chances last year with Mairead Farrell's camp stealing defeat from the jaws of victory through a nasty campaign against Trevor O'Clochartaigh. Niall McNelis won't be reviving the dead corpse of Labour any time soon, but it will be fun to watch him try.

With O'Cuiv, Kyne, Grealish dead certs, and with Connolly and Naughton making use of their offices, chances are no change come the election whenever it comes.
 

Carlos Danger

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Catherine Connolly was slow getting her constituency work up to speed, but word is she's powering away serving city and south Connemara constituents. Hildegard has surprised people with her hospital campaign, and although she seemed vulnerable to start, and might even be still with the loss of O'Mahoney's south Mayo vote, she's not the worst bet to hang on either.

The rest are also rans, city types who think press release campaigning will get them a seat. Of particular note was the spectacular collapse of SF's chances last year with Mairead Farrell's camp stealing defeat from the jaws of victory through a nasty campaign against Trevor O'Clochartaigh. Niall McNelis won't be reviving the dead corpse of Labour any time soon, but it will be fun to watch him try.

With O'Cuiv, Kyne, Grealish dead certs, and with Connolly and Naughton making use of their offices, chances are no change come the election whenever it comes.
If Cuív decides not to run as an FU to Micheál Martin, FF will need to scramble for his votes.
 

lostexpectation

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This is a thread for informed local discussion to predict who will take the seats. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

The runners and riders so far are:

Deputy Eamon O'Cuiv (Fianna Fail)
Deputy Hildegrade Naughten (Fine Gael)
Deputy Sean Kyne (Fine Gael)
Deputy Noel Grealish (Indo)
Deputy Catherine Conolly (Indo)

Cllr. Niall McNelis (Labour)
Cllr. Mairéad Farrell (Sinn Féin)
Jessy Kelly (Jessy Ní Cheallaigh) (Solidarity)
Joe Loughnane (People Before Profit),
Niall O Tuathail (Social Democrats)
Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party)
Nicola Daveron (Renua)
Cllr Mike Cubbard (Independent)

You'd think the 2nd FG seat might be at risk here?ò
when was O Cuiv selected?
 

Erudite Caveman

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Connolly should be more comfortable this time without Trevor O'C competing geographically or on the left. Kyne and Naughten are both doing ok and should both get in if FG keep polling high. Will be interesting to see who FF run.
 

RelentlessApathy!

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If Cuív decides not to run as an FU to Micheál Martin, FF will need to scramble for his votes.
That's not O'Cuiv's nature, when he finally stops running it will be a seismic event and as you say votes will fly everywhere. But he's shown no indication of giving up yet.
 

Round tower

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O Cuiv went to a funeral in Clifden of a Manion man, Clifden is full of Manions and all are FG, when a son of the dead man seen Eamon coming in he went over and covered the dead man's eyes and said "if he saw EOV coming he might awake with rage".
 

statsman

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I can't see into the future and neither can you.
For the moment I’m assuming that any sitting TD who hasn’t declared their intention to step down is a candidate. If that changes then OPs can be edited.
 

midlander12

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I agree with the other posters - same again here. SF would have had a good chance of taking a seat here with TOC but as in Longford-Westmeath they decided to fire a metaphorical Armalite at their ballot box chances. The only thing that would change anything would be O Cuiv or Grealish not running. I think there would still be a second FF seat whether of not O Cuiv runs. If Grealish retired a second left candidate (SD or Lab or possibly SF) might scrape through if they transferred to each other sufficiently.
 

RelentlessApathy!

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what about Cllr Mary Hoade and John connolly? who ran last time or who else is an FF prospect?
John Connolly didn't get a seanead seat for his troubles, must have been a right kick in the balls to see Air Ceidigh get one instead. Some fool of a councillor will get the sweepers ticket no doubt.
 
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