Galway west: call the GE results

Hitchcock

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The FG and FF votes are are incredibly low - 23% and 20% respectively. Hard to see how either could get 2 on these figures. On these numbers it would most likely be 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SD, O'Reilly (who's she - Green?) and Connolly. Grealish would be gone and SF are also-rans. But I would be a bit sceptical about the poll, to be honest.
We can but hope, good riddance to bad rubbish.
 


MOSS1

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I was referring to the TG4 poll in 2002. That year everyone was predicting wipeout for the PDs but they doubled their seats to 8. Grealish was a PD then.

Also I think 525 is a very small sample, though probably typical of Irish constituency polls. But the smaller a sample the bigger the m.o.e.. Grealish has been there for 18 years so might have some transfer friendliness from the voters knowing him better than the newbies.
Yes, sorry I misread your post first and saw after you referred to 2002. The poll in 2002 as far as I recall was an Irish Independent poll which placed Noel on something like 2 or 3% with the three PDs combined on something like 7%. I remember Chris Glennon on Primetime saying 'the one thing we can safely say is the PD seat is gone' with all the talk being of whether FF could take a third seat or if Dana who was running as an independent might get it. Noel was also felt to be under pressure in 2007 from the Greens but won the fourth seat fairly easily in the end.

In addition to the two independents this poll also suggests the government chief whip Sean Kyne is in difficulty. There was a sort of lazy assumption that he was the lead FG but Hildegarde has really solidified her position since 2016. She might not necessarily welcome this poll though as FG may rally behind their minister now. What a difference 3 points makes though - 13% has you topping the poll while 10% sees your seat in danger. Which really sums up the scale of the health warning that attaches to this poll.
 

MOSS1

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I would also note that one published poll midway though the 2011 campaign put Sean Kyne on 1% while the Sindo's much lampooned quantum research poll had him on 15%. The local bookie and FG man John Mullholland was especially dismissive of the latter. Of course he ended up somewhere in between and won a seat. It is also worth noting that the winner of the second
FG seat in both 2011 and 2016 was a 7/1 shot on the morning of the election. As Jim Duffy, the former FG activist, he of the Lenihan tapes fame, put it about 10 or 12 years ago constituency polls shouldn't be taken with a pinch of salt but with a big bag of it.
 

RelentlessApathy!

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Have to pour some cold water on this. No way is Hildegard on 13%, she's city only and that isn't enough in Galway west. Also, there's no way in hell a constituency this conservative is ever going to elect three left wing TDs, at best it's going to be Connolly and A.N.Other.

Grealish is going nowhere, Ein Volk , Ein Oughterard, Kein Flüchtlinge!
 

MOSS1

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Have to pour some cold water on this. No way is Hildegard on 13%, she's city only and that isn't enough in Galway west. Also, there's no way in hell a constituency this conservative is ever going to elect three left wing TDs, at best it's going to be Connolly and A.N.Other.

Grealish is going nowhere, Ein Volk , Ein Oughterard, Kein Flüchtlinge!
Hildegarde also has a considerable vote out in the Oranmore/Clarinbridge area. Around 16% of the votes cast in the constituency are from part of the Oranmore/Athenry ward of Galway County Council. She's originally from Oranmore.That may partly explain Noel Grealish decline in vote share as that's very much his base. I would find Hildegarde on 13% to be one of the more plausible figures in this poll.
 

RelentlessApathy!

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Hildegarde also has a considerable vote out in the Oranmore/Clarinbridge area. Around 16% of the votes cast in the constituency are from part of the Oranmore/Athenry ward of Galway County Council. She's originally from Oranmore.That may partly explain Noel Grealish decline in vote share as that's very much his base. I would find Hildegarde on 13% to be one of the more plausible figures in this poll.
She'll need it, FG were less than 45% of FF's votes in the locals last year. Kyne can at least look towards 3K in Connemara and the guts of the same in the City again. I'm not sure Oranmore/Clarinbridge can match that. Or put another way, Kyne was on 6136 and Hildegard was on 4567, they both are going down according to the polls and sentiment which means it could be the two struggling to take one seat for FG. Kyne still has the advantage in that scenario.
 

bang bang

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Have to pour some cold water on this. No way is Hildegard on 13%, she's city only and that isn't enough in Galway west. Also, there's no way in hell a constituency this conservative is ever going to elect three left wing TDs, at best it's going to be Connolly and A.N.Other.

Grealish is going nowhere, Ein Volk , Ein Oughterard, Kein Flüchtlinge!
Gut genug, fur herr Grealish 😄
 

MOSS1

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She'll need it, FG were less than 45% of FF's votes in the locals last year. Kyne can at least look towards 3K in Connemara and the guts of the same in the City again. I'm not sure Oranmore/Clarinbridge can match that. Or put another way, Kyne was on 6136 and Hildegard was on 4567, they both are going down according to the polls and sentiment which means it could be the two struggling to take one seat for FG. Kyne still has the advantage in that scenario.
There are less candidates in the Oranmore ward this time which may help her. No Fidelma, no James Charity, no FF candidate out there. Also no John o'Mahoney who took a chunk of the FG vote out there in 2016. In fact of the top 5 vote getters in that ward in 2016 herself and Noel are the only two running. She's also far better established this time, while last time despite being a senator who had also run in 2011 she was more of a dark horse.

Being more established should also help her in the city. Last time out Sean Kyne polled around 1800 votes in the city which was actually only a few hundred votes behind her. For instance in Salthill she topped the poll but he was second. I think she's far more established as the city candidate this time and will take a bigger share of the party vote there.

As against that Kyne who got around 3500 in Connemara last time has that area left largely to himself and o Cuiv.

Overall likely to be very tight between them and that will suit FG who would then have a very good chance of retaining their two seats against a fractured field.
 

RelentlessApathy!

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As against that Kyne who got around 3500 in Connemara last time has that area left largely to himself and o Cuiv.
Funny to think that SF had 3K to themselves there in 2016 as well, they might have even held on to a councillor or two last year if they hadn't screwed it up.
 

Felixunger

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Notwithstanding the cum grano salis caveats around local polls, the polls published thus far are not showing a significant FF lead. Lots to play for.
 

wiseowl

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this poll will look like comedy gold in a fortnight.

o cuiv will top the poll and there is a strong chance he will help bring in his running mate crowe.
kyne will bag the fg seat, he will benefit from the spare o mahony fg votes.
hildegarde is toast, I predict she will receive a modest 7%. she must have commissioned this fake poll.

one of the city crew on the left side will take a seat, probably Connolly and if the greens/sf/labour are to take a second in the city they need to transfer tightly to one another, which is doubtful and loose transfer will allow the 2nd ffer Crowe in.
Grealish safe as houses, much to the annoyance of the multicultural Irish traitors..


the real poll will look like
o cuiv 19
grealish 17
kyne 12
Connolly 10
Farrell 10
Crowe 8
o reilly 7
naughton 7
mcneilis 4
rest about 6

2ff, fg, Connolly and Grealish
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
this poll will look like comedy gold in a fortnight.

o cuiv will top the poll and there is a strong chance he will help bring in his running mate crowe.
kyne will bag the fg seat, he will benefit from the spare o mahony fg votes.
hildegarde is toast, I predict she will receive a modest 7%. she must have commissioned this fake poll.

one of the city crew on the left side will take a seat, probably Connolly and if the greens/sf/labour are to take a second in the city they need to transfer tightly to one another, which is doubtful and loose transfer will allow the 2nd ffer Crowe in.
Grealish safe as houses, much to the annoyance of the multicultural Irish traitors..


the real poll will look like
o cuiv 19
grealish 17
kyne 12
Connolly 10
Farrell 10
Crowe 8
o reilly 7
naughton 7
mcneilis 4
rest about 6

2ff, fg, Connolly and Grealish
Connolly safe is the important thing here.If Grealish does unexpectedly get defeated would a wonderful result.
 

midlander12

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FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, SD 1, Oths 1 (Connolly)?

Can't see FF and FG having enough for 2 here and you can never rule Grealish out. As for SF if they're not winning seats in 5-seaters like Galway West, it isn't quite happening for them.
 

RelentlessApathy!

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FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, SD 1, Oths 1 (Connolly)?

Can't see FF and FG having enough for 2 here and you can never rule Grealish out. As for SF if they're not winning seats in 5-seaters like Galway West, it isn't quite happening for them.
Grealish is going nowhere. FF 1, FG 1, Grealish, Connolly with the last seat being a dog fight between, SD, GRN, FF and FG. Effectively that last seat will be a battle royal between Right and Left transfers. Kyne might yet lose out to Hildegard.
 

seanof

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Grealish is going nowhere. FF 1, FG 1, Grealish, Connolly with the last seat being a dog fight between, SD, GRN, FF and FG. Effectively that last seat will be a battle royal between Right and Left transfers. Kyne might yet lose out to Hildegard.
Their Chief Whip losing their seat wouldn't be a good look for FG!
 

midlander12

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Grealish is going nowhere. FF 1, FG 1, Grealish, Connolly with the last seat being a dog fight between, SD, GRN, FF and FG. Effectively that last seat will be a battle royal between Right and Left transfers. Kyne might yet lose out to Hildegard.
No SF?
 

WayOutWest

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Even if SF votes increases as expected I don’t think that will be reflected here. Farrell will do well to match Trevor O’C last election total. FG kept the transfers within the party last but if their vote is down a second seat would be difficult. Grealish will have the racists vote which should get him elected. Will OCuivs transfers will get a second FF seat. It’s hard to see two seats on the left here. If elections were decided on hard work and performance Connolly would definitely top the polls but of course other things decide how people vote. Whoever stays ahead in the Connolly/ Farrell/O’Tuathail race will take a seat. Final seat between FF/ FG
 

RelentlessApathy!

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Nope, Galway left is a far more packed field and Micheal D's votes still hold close to the Labour gene pool. And that's before we even consider the ToC bustup and the lack of profile of the new candidate. She couldn't even hang on to her own council seat last year.
 

bagel

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The most popular politician in Galway City currently is the Mayor, Cllr Mike Cubbard. He'll be strongly in the running for the fourth seat.
 


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