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MOSS1

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Looking at the tallies another very strong performance from Noel Grealish in the Oranmore ward, at 35% his vote is actually up a few points on 2016. What's also very noticeable is his 43% vote share in Oughterard and big vote share in nearby villages like Killanin, Derryglinna and Callownamuck, which are completely out of sync with his modest vote share in Connemara as a whole. There are obviously a lot of people living in that area who travel to and from Claregalway and who have bought into Noel's passion concerning the Claregalway relief road!
 

Barroso

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Looking at the tallies another very strong performance from Noel Grealish in the Oranmore ward, at 35% his vote is actually up a few points on 2016. What's also very noticeable is his 43% vote share in Oughterard and big vote share in nearby villages like Killanin, Derryglinna and Callownamuck, which are completely out of sync with his modest vote share in Connemara as a whole. There are obviously a lot of people living in that area who travel to and from Claregalway and who have bought into Noel's passion concerning the Claregalway relief road!
Lots of nice houses between Oughterard, Moycullen and surrounding areas, Barna would be similar, real PD land, not at all like the rest of Conamara.
 

MOSS1

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Lots of nice houses between Oughterard, Moycullen and surrounding areas, Barna would be similar, real PD land, not at all like the rest of Conamara.
Grealish vote and the old PD vote only converge to a degree. Bobby Molloy, while prominent across the constituency was particularly strong in the western half of the city (including what might be considered classic PD areas like Salthill and Taylor's Hill) and Connemara. Noel is strong in the east of the city and in that county section from Annaghdown down through Claregalway, Oranmore and down to Clarinbridge. He took 35% in that latter section up slightly from 31/32% in the last two elections. Noel has essentially taken the old Frank Fahey vote. He has around 10% consistently in the east of the city helped by the two (some say three) ex PD independent Cllrs there. In the west of the city Donal Lyons and the former Molloy machine haven't had the same effect.

There hasn't really been much of a Grealish vote in Connemara and the old Bobby Molloy vote, which was substantial (but which started to drift back to E O Cuiv from 1992) didn't travel with him. The one exception was Oughterard where Tom Welby (who ran himself in 2011) has pulled out a reasonable vote for him. But this is on an entirely different level and there can be little doubt what's happened. Oughterard would have been important to Sean Kyne and is also traditionally an O Cuiv stronghold but between them FF and FG polled only a quarter of the vote in the village itself this time versus 43% for Noel Grealish, a quadrupling of his vote from 2016. This time out Noel doubled his vote in Connemara from 800ish to 1,623. However over 900 of these votes came in Oughterard, Derryglinna, Callownamuck and Killanin.

Sean Kyne's vote in his native Moycullen was down a bit from mid-40s last time to 31%, still a decent figure and well ahead of Eamon in second place. There are suggestions his support for social housing lay behind some of this drop but looking at the numbers from Moycullen there's no particular evidence of this as the vote spread several ways with the likes of the Greens picking up support. Noel Grealish had only modest support there and likewise in Barna.
 

MOSS1

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Another point I would note is that Hildegarde Naughten comes out of this election very well. She was fighting a battle on two fronts, or trying to defend two flanks. First to her right she had to shake off Noel Grealish- and for all the damage he did to Sean Kyne on a particular issue in a particular area, she was far more exposed to him when you look at the geography - and on the other she had to defend that middle class, urban FG vote from Greens and SD, something she did with plenty to spare, in contrast with the general picture nationwide (it's got a little lost amid the hype and hysteria over SF but GP/SD between them, or even if you include Labour the TLA as a whole, made an almost identical number of seat gains as SF but didn't really make an impact here).
 

Barroso

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Thanks for that local knowledge, Moss. I'm not that well up on the various localities and personalities within the constituency these days.
Your comment about Grealish to an extent being Fahey's replacement is interesting in several ways - Fahey was in many ways the epitome of all that has gone wrong with FF as it moved from being a catch-all centre party to being a rightwing party under that famous Socialist Ahern, although the move began as long back as the 1960s under Lemass if not earlier. (I'm not blaming Lemass for this, in fact I don't know enough about the man to do so, but he introduced a new business-orientation to FF's politics under the guidance of Whitaker, AFAIK).
A party cannot remain in power for so long without attracting the "ambitious" who see politics as a vehicle for personal betterment rather than a way to run society for the good of all, and Fahey was the mé-féiner par exellence, with his vast property empire (vast for someone who started out as a school teacher, it must be said, not so large on a global scale).
I wonder if Fahey managed to benefit from any of the REITs that did so well in the last decade?
 

MOSS1

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Looking at transfer patterns here there are a few things that stand out and are illustrative of some of the tribes within the Irish electorate right now. In particular the eliminations of Mike Cubbard and Pauline O'Reilly who went out in that order midway through the process.

First take Cubbard. It was a fairly underwhelming performance and he has very little support outside westside and Ballybane. However on elimination only 86 of his 2907 were non-transferable (maybe indicative of a nod from his local electorates before moving onto their real choice) and there were 3 clear beneficiaries. Farrell getting 729, Connolly 633 and Grealish 552. Notably the TLA did poorly with SD getting 256 and Greens only 132. FF & FG (taken together) actually did better than the TLA with 295 and 224 respectively. Cubbard is a bit of an eclectic character. His background is FF (albeit it's not a particularly strong one) and at times he has loosely tied himself to the ex PDs. Ballybane would also be heading into Grealish territory so all those factors may explain Noel getting a decent chunk. He has however pitched himself as a left wing candidate and that brings up the other interesting trend here. Note how well Connolly and Farrell do but how poorly the TLA fare.

Then turn to Pauline O'Reilly. Again not a great performance. Her elimination also saw three notable beneficiaries but the biggest by far were the SD with 1433. Connolly got 964 and FG 873. In contrast SF got only 380 and FF 299 with Noel Grealish on just 134. So the key points there are TLA solidarity was strong, SF not really seen as part of the same family and FG more popular with these voters than FF.

Taking the two trends together what we find is that far from it being one leftist group you have Connolly, Cubbard and Farrell all strong in one segment with the TLA fighting with FG in another. To a degree Connolly has support across both groups but it is skewed to the first. You also have to factor that these two eliminations are strongly skewed towards city votes. Farrell and to a lesser degree Connolly did well in Connemara- indeed Connolly vote was probably suppressed by Eamon O Cuiv personal vote. The TLA didn't really feature heavily there. So Connolly and Farrell very much a more 'Bread and butter' or traditional or even populist vote with the TLA attracting a very middle class voter more concerned with social or even cultural issues, FG being in the mix here too to a certain degree. The TLA performance was actually below par in Galway City when you look at its demographics. But then again Galway City skews very much to the right and economics trumps culture there.

Agewise there is no doubt Connolly's voters are much older - the image of grumpy pensioners is hard to shake off! - with the TLA attracting a younger vote. Looking at the trends though Farrell certainly isn't relying on young voters either, hers is probably balanced but if anything maybe skewed towards a slightly older demographic too.

With this in mind it does seem questionable for the GP and even the SD to countenance coalition with SF either in a FF led rainbow or in a 'coalition of the left'. Arguably they, especially the Greens should in an ideal world lean towards a FG as opposed to FF led coalition too.
 

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