Galway West Opinion Poll

Glucose

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Internal poll for Fianna Fail conducted in the Galway West Constituency on 22nd/23rd November. Sample Plan 600.

Martin Concannan (SF) 2%
Catherine Connolly (IND) 12%
Michael Crowe (FF) 7%
Noel Grealish (IND) 11%
Frank Fahy (FF) 8%
Fidelma Healy Eames (FG) 9%
Derek Nolan (LAB) 11%
Padraic McCormack (FG) 14%
Eamon O’Cuiv (FF) 15%
Niall O’Brolchain (GR) 4%
Brian Walsh (FG) 7%
 


Toland

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Taking the data at face value:

2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind, 1 Labour

or (more likely, due to transfer unfriendliness)

2 FG, 1 FF. 1 Ind, 1 Labour

Few enough will be voting for FF for party reasons. If the personality theory is right, then even internal transfers between FF candidates will be substantially lower than in the past.
 

Glucose

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Taking the data at face value:

2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind, 1 Labour

or (more likely, due to transfer unfriendliness)

2 FG, 1 FF. 1 Ind, 1 Labour

Few enough will be voting for FF for party reasons. If the personality theory is right, then even internal transfers between FF candidates will be substantially lower than in the past.
Your second analysis is more likely 2 FG, 1 FF. 1 Ind and 1 Labour.

Bizarrely, it may go 2 FG, 1 FF and 2 Ind basesd on transfers. FF getting virtually no significant transfers.

Has any constituency elected 2 independents before?

Both independents are crediblie and draw from completely different sides of the political left/right divide.
 

ruamruam

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Internal poll for Fianna Fail conducted in the Galway West Constituency on 22nd/23rd November. Sample Plan 600.

Martin Concannan (SF) 2%
Catherine Connolly (IND) 12%
Michael Crowe (FF) 7%
Noel Grealish (IND) 11%
Frank Fahy (FF) 8%
Fidelma Healy Eames (FG) 9%
Derek Nolan (LAB) 11%
Padraic McCormack (FG) 14%
Eamon O’Cuiv (FF) 15%
Niall O’Brolchain (GR) 4%
Brian Walsh (FG) 7%
FF at 30% Greens on 4% Depressing. Catherine Connolly is the best of that bunch.
 

Toland

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FF at 30% Greens on 4% Depressing. Catherine Connolly is the best of that bunch.
It is a Fianna Fáil poll.

At a wild guess, I'd say their real support is at most similar to what it was in Donegal SW.

Unfortunately, in a five-seater, even that is more than enough for a seat.
 

LgCastell

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going on these figures i'd say FG wont want McCormack to go even if Enda will have to push him around by the end of the 31st Dail
 

Keith-M

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FF on 30% here supports my point that when you put known names on the ballot paper FF will do a lot better than the polls suuggest. With 30% of the FPV you get two seats in a five seater unless you transfer very poorly with the party and with the FF vote now down to he "hard core" these are the people who go "down the ticket". They don't need transfers because typically one if not two candidates get elected without reaching the quota.

If these numbers are replicated on the day it's 2 FF, 1FG, 1LP and 1 Ind (but hard to call which Ind).
 

locke

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Is there not supposed to be a 2nd Labour candidate on the ballot?
 

Icemancometh

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FF on 30% here supports my point that when you put known names on the ballot paper FF will do a lot better than the polls suuggest. With 30% of the FPV you get two seats in a five seater unless you transfer very poorly with the party and with the FF vote now down to he "hard core" these are the people who go "down the ticket". They don't need transfers because typically one if not two candidates get elected without reaching the quota.

If these numbers are replicated on the day it's 2 FF, 1FG, 1LP and 1 Ind (but hard to call which Ind).
I'm not sure about that. Given that they won't get much if any transfers from other candidates, almost all of that 30% has to stay within FF to get a 2nd seat. I don't know the constituency very well though, but looking at those numbers, it'd be a squeeze for the last 3 seats between five (FF,FG,Lab and the 2 Inds). But with Grealish being one of the Inds, he'll probably be a bit transfer repellent too, and his vote could well transfer to FF.


That being said, it's a poll of 600 people, not exactly rock solid.
 

Tomas Mor

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going on these figures i'd say FG wont want McCormack to go even if Enda will have to push him around by the end of the 31st Dail
he is the front runner for his party !
 

Aidan1

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You'd be a brave man or woman to call the 5 seats here.

Obviously alot will depend on transfers and geography and who's eliminated and in what order.

FG also have 30% in this poll but with 3 candidates......one seat is all they may get.....same as FF.

O'Cuiv and McCormack are safe for seats on these figures.
I'd give Connolly the 3rd seat with significant transfers from SF and Greens.
I think Grealish and Nolan will take the final 2 seats.

1FF, 1FG, 1LAB, 2IND
 

Passer-by

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Taking the data at face value:

2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind, 1 Labour

or (more likely, due to transfer unfriendliness)

2 FG, 1 FF. 1 Ind, 1 Labour

Few enough will be voting for FF for party reasons. If the personality theory is right, then even internal transfers between FF candidates will be substantially lower than in the past.
Grealish is ex-PD - i.e. has spent the last couple of Dail terms voting for FF-led policies. As such, he might as well be counted as FF to all intents and purposes.

As such, Galway West could return something like:

Pro-current government: 3 TDs,
Anti-current government: 2 TDs.

It probably won't be the only constituency to do so, I suspect...
 

meriwether

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FF on 30% here supports my point that when you put known names on the ballot paper FF will do a lot better than the polls suuggest. With 30% of the FPV you get two seats in a five seater unless you transfer very poorly with the party and with the FF vote now down to he "hard core" these are the people who go "down the ticket". They don't need transfers because typically one if not two candidates get elected without reaching the quota.

If these numbers are replicated on the day it's 2 FF, 1FG, 1LP and 1 Ind (but hard to call which Ind).
Bunkum.

The votes aren't there for FF regardless of the personalities.

Michael Martin's brother didn't get elected in the last council, nor did Sean Ardagh's extended coiterie of rug rats.

There is no reason to disbelieve the 17% latest opinion poll in RedC for FF, and there is every reason to believe FF dropping 30% in Donegal South is to be replicated country wise.

Wishful thinking about the organisation, or well known names is baloney when faced with the reality of 17% (pre IMF, mind).
 

bebeno

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Good to see Catherine Connolly getting such a high comparative %.

Disgusted that Forty Gaffs has 8% but I suppose it is a FF poll. Do people need to spit in his presence to show him he's not wanted?

If SinnFein had a strong enough candidate, I'm sure they would have a shot of getting a seat as well and make a breakthrough, given the disgust with the government.
 

gijoe

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On that poll I put it 2 Independents (Connolly and Grealish) 2 FG and 1 FF. Although it is conceivable that Labour could hold a seat. FF will be just too transfer unfriendly, as well as splitting their vote 3 ways, to hold a 2nd seat but Grealish is the likely beneficiary as a result. Really bad for Labour if Connolly takes the Labour seat, will she link up with the ULA?

BTW thanks to Glucose for posting this up. He mentioned this poll on another thread and I pressed him into posting it up for the whole board to view and comment.
 


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