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Galway West-Will we have any change?


galwayboy

Member
Joined
Jan 8, 2009
Messages
11
With a lot of possible candidates now emerging does anybody think that one will be strong enough to unseat a sitting TD?
I actually think not but it is becoming interesting.
FF-Crowe going well with support from O Cuiv but still an election away in my opinion from taking Fahy's seat unless Fahy decides not to stand.
FG- Conneely- Too antagonistic to get popular support
Healy Eames- Too negative and more interested in being elected than representing people(then again who isn't?)
Mannion- Too isolated out in Clifden.
Walsh-Yes but only if McCormack stands aside.
Lab- big question will they run 2 propably no.
Green-O Brollachain making a big comeback but blew his chance last time.
imo-depressingly things will stay the same but am interested in what others think.
 


G

Gimpanzee

McCormack might take this opportunity to retire, especially seeing as he wanted to go the last time and was talked out of it and its a fairly easy election for Walsh or whoever to take over. Maybe FG aim for two, though hard to see it coming off. Especially with the likes of FHE and Coneely whining and bawling week in week out.

Not sure that there is enough support for 2 from the Green/Labour side.

I think it is ripe for an independent of someone can get a bit of a profile. Either Grealish and Fahey could be taken I think.
 

sumlulu

Active member
Joined
Jan 25, 2008
Messages
126
Anywhere else in the country bar Galway East one would imagine that Fahey's seat is gone, but this is Galway, the home of rain and Fianna Fail! So no change.
 

corelli

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 13, 2007
Messages
4,478
With a lot of possible candidates now emerging does anybody think that one will be strong enough to unseat a sitting TD?
I actually think not but it is becoming interesting.
FF-Crowe going well with support from O Cuiv but still an election away in my opinion from taking Fahy's seat unless Fahy decides not to stand.
FG- Conneely- Too antagonistic to get popular support
Healy Eames- Too negative and more interested in being elected than representing people(then again who isn't?)
Mannion- Too isolated out in Clifden.
Walsh-Yes but only if McCormack stands aside.
Lab- big question will they run 2 propably no.
Green-O Brollachain making a big comeback but blew his chance last time.
imo-depressingly things will stay the same but am interested in what others think.
The word is that FG are going to run at least two candidates, if not three. It is possible, if not probable, at the moment, that they would, as of today, gain a seat at Fahey's expense.
 

corelli

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 13, 2007
Messages
4,478
Anywhere else in the country bar Galway East one would imagine that Fahey's seat is gone, but this is Galway, the home of rain and Fianna Fail! So no change.
Ah Fahy is TD for Galway WEST, not east. Kind of a critical error in your pseudo analysis.
 

greengreen

Active member
Joined
May 26, 2009
Messages
257
FF got over 20000 first pref in last gen. election and Fg got over 8000. It would have to be some turn around to take 2 seats for FG. More likely a seat swap. Fahy the lowest FF TD was 3000 above the top FG McCormack and about 5000 above next. In fact FF almost stole seat 5 with Crowe. It is possible but not very probable that FG will get 2 seats.
 

donkylemore

Member
Joined
Nov 23, 2009
Messages
35
With a lot of possible candidates now emerging does anybody think that one will be strong enough to unseat a sitting TD?
I actually think not but it is becoming interesting.
FF-Crowe going well with support from O Cuiv but still an election away in my opinion from taking Fahy's seat unless Fahy decides not to stand.
FG- Conneely- Too antagonistic to get popular support
Healy Eames- Too negative and more interested in being elected than representing people(then again who isn't?)
Mannion- Too isolated out in Clifden.
Walsh-Yes but only if McCormack stands aside.
Lab- big question will they run 2 propably no.
Green-O Brollachain making a big comeback but blew his chance last time.
imo-depressingly things will stay the same but am interested in what others think.



A depressing salad of uninitiated candidates ; uninspired, parochial. self serving , conservative ..I tire
But there is one inspirational candidate in the wings - perhaps she has wings as she sings like an angel.
If you heard her sing you would believe in God
I speak of Hildegarde Naughton.
And if I could sing I would .. her praise
 

greengreen

Active member
Joined
May 26, 2009
Messages
257
Speculation of Fahy stepping down is rife but may be wishful thinking-Grealish still on FF wish list.
 

pragmatist

Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Messages
28
FG can't win 2 in Galway West. If McCormack runs he will hold the seat. If he doesn't it will be a battle between Healy Eames and the party's city candidate. If interested, Walsh would give her a run for her money. She would comfortably beat Conneely and would destroy Naughton who we haven't heard from since the locals. No matter who they choose, Healy Eames will be victorious.

FF will hold it's 2. O'Cuiv safe. Battle between Fahy & Crowe.

Labour will hold it's one seat. Michael D. or Nolan whichever runs.

Grealish will hold if he doesn't join FF. All of "his" councillors did well in the locals.

Only possible changes at this point. Healy Eames will take FG seat if McCormack retires. Crowe could beat Fahy for 2nd FF seat. Nolan will replace Michael D. if the latter retires.
 

DeGaulle 2.0

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 2, 2008
Messages
2,001
Website
ga.wikipedia.org
FG can't win 2 in Galway West. If McCormack runs he will hold the seat. If he doesn't it will be a battle between Healy Eames and the party's city candidate. If interested, Walsh would give her a run for her money. She would comfortably beat Conneely and would destroy Naughton who we haven't heard from since the locals. No matter who they choose, Healy Eames will be victorious.

FF will hold it's 2. O'Cuiv safe. Battle between Fahy & Crowe.

Labour will hold it's one seat. Michael D. or Nolan whichever runs.

Grealish will hold if he doesn't join FF. All of "his" councillors did well in the locals.

Only possible changes at this point. Healy Eames will take FG seat if McCormack retires. Crowe could beat Fahy for 2nd FF seat. Nolan will replace Michael D. if the latter retires.
FG got 1.22 quotas last time.
FF got 2.22 quotas

If the FG vote goes up half a quota and the FF vote goes down half a quota then they will be starting from the same first preference vote.

FG outpolled FF 5:3 in Galway county council election in 2009 and were just ahead in the city council elections.

It is by no means certain that FG will take 2 seats but it is a real possibility.

FF got 37% last time in Galway West, about 4% less than their national percentage. The national percentage is now in the low 20s according to the opinion polls.
 

pragmatist

Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Messages
28
Interesting article in most recent addition of Galway advertiser which suggests P Conneely will be elected a Senator after the next election. Surely FG wouldn't give him a nomination. McCormack's election as chair of FG parlimentary party means he will run again so it looks like F Healy Eames political career is coming to an end.
 

Tomas Mor

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 22, 2010
Messages
10,389
McCormack will not retire, he was made chairman of the party last week only with the help of that roaring Ring. He is a waste of space, only contribiution in Dail is to heckle a bit. FHE is best chance, and talk of Conneely for God's sake leave us alone. Hildegarde Naughton is also a good prospect. Higgins will hold on, Fahy not maybe, Grealish doubtful. While he supports gov he is not contaminated as if he was in FF
 

Bobert

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 28, 2008
Messages
1,072
With a lot of possible candidates now emerging does anybody think that one will be strong enough to unseat a sitting TD?
I actually think not but it is becoming interesting.
FF-Crowe going well with support from O Cuiv but still an election away in my opinion from taking Fahy's seat unless Fahy decides not to stand.
FG- Conneely- Too antagonistic to get popular support
Healy Eames- Too negative and more interested in being elected than representing people(then again who isn't?)
Mannion- Too isolated out in Clifden.
Walsh-Yes but only if McCormack stands aside.
Lab- big question will they run 2 propably no.
Green-O Brollachain making a big comeback but blew his chance last time.
imo-depressingly things will stay the same but am interested in what others think.
Crowe and O'Cuiv to take two FF seats, Fahey to lose.

Healey Eames to take a seat.

Michael D to take seat.

Possibly a second Labour or indo.
 

ANY1

Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2009
Messages
20
I notice there is a general sentiment that Grealish will survive and Fahey's seat is dodgy. Say what ya like about Fahey but I dont think he ever took off to the slopes for a week while the Dail was sitting!!

Miriam Lord's Week - The Irish Times - Sat, Feb 27, 2010
Nobody is sure of surviving in the next general election, the mood of the electorate is angry and I hope there will be alot of upsets next time out. The people we have representing us in the Dáil are not doing a good job, and its time they were told that by the people who put them there.
 

James Healy

Active member
Joined
Sep 12, 2007
Messages
171
Would Gaway W be so perverse to give 2 seats to FF ? I know this is fertile grounds for Soldiers of Destiny, but that would take the biscuit, would it not.
 

Bobert

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 28, 2008
Messages
1,072
Would Gaway W be so perverse to give 2 seats to FF ? I know this is fertile grounds for Soldiers of Destiny, but that would take the biscuit, would it not.
Yes, off course. But which two is the question...
 

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