Garret speculates Oct 2011 for GE!What say ye?

When will the next general election be ?


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spidermom

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Tomas Mor

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I would say GE later this year, and if not, by May or June next year 2011.There is only so long he can hold off on bye elections ,and things are getting worse.
 

spidermom

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Would have thought 12 months at the very latest....!

But you never do know!
 

seabhac siulach

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Finding alternative to spending cuts may prove a taxing issue - The Irish Times - Sat, Jul 17, 2010


Garret Fitzgerald speculates in today's Times for a GE in Nov 2011,presuming the gov lasts that long.
Paddy Power gives odds of 11/10 for 2010...7/4 for 2011....11/4 2012!


So what say the sages on P.ie??
The unusually long 12 week Dail break (govt. popularity tends to rise when the Dail is closed!) and the government's persistent unwillingness to properly discuss property/water taxes, etc., even when the budget is fast approaching, would indicate to me that the government (or at least Fianna Fail) are looking at a 'surprise' autumn election (early October?).

Being assured of defeat, they could lessen the damage by going before they have to implement any savage budget cuts/tax increases in December. By losing only say 10-15 seats, and allowing the present opposition to implement the savage budget instead, this would allow Fianna Fail the possibility of returning to power after a single Dail term out of office. This, for Fianna Fail, would represent the least worst option.
 

Catalpa

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The Government could not survive the loss of the bye elections

- its hard to see how they could stave off holding them past late this year

- October or November IMO

- & the Budget due in December:eek:

Cowen is caught between a rock and a hard place on this one.:)
 

BlowIn

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You allmost wrote down my thoughts seabhac, I smell a rat and its going to let FG/Lab put the knife in with the next budget and then its going to wrap its self tighly up in a green flag on the oposite benchs and tango back into government to make sure their is no dirty blue shirt/commie/provo on the reveiwing stand for 2016.

Fianna failure are an insidous cancer in our society, if they bring in the next budget as hard as it needs to be they are done and dusted for a generation.

But if they can get FG/Lab to do the dirty work then they are odds on for 2016 and a happy couple of decades more mismanagement of the country for the gain of the elite few.
 

nonpartyboy

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Another old codger riding the state along with hundreds of others, who cares what he thinks.The last decades man, Varadkar had it right.
 

DeGaulle 2.0

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The unusually long 12 week Dail break (govt. popularity tends to rise when the Dail is closed!) and the government's persistent unwillingness to properly discuss property/water taxes, etc., even when the budget is fast approaching, would indicate to me that the government (or at least Fianna Fail) are looking at a 'surprise' autumn election (early October?).

Being assured of defeat, they could lessen the damage by going before they have to implement any savage budget cuts/tax increases in December. By losing only say 10-15 seats, and allowing the present opposition to implement the savage budget instead, this would allow Fianna Fail the possibility of returning to power after a single Dail term out of office. This, for Fianna Fail, would represent the least worst option.
I would be very surprised if there was an election before it is absolutely necessary. I don't think people have yet grasped the scale of losses facing FF. Probably none of the FFers in the present cabinet will ever be a minister again.
 

seabhac siulach

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I would be very surprised if there was an election before it is absolutely necessary. I don't think people have yet grasped the scale of losses facing FF. Probably none of the FFers in the present cabinet will ever be a minister again.
I would imagine it will depend on the first Irish Times opinion poll after the summer break. If it shows Fianna Fail with anything over say 25% then they will surely go for it. It is unlikely to get better for them if they hold on for another year (no matter how much Fine Gael might prefer them to).
 

spidermom

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I would be very surprised if there was an election before it is absolutely necessary. I don't think people have yet grasped the scale of losses facing FF. Probably none of the FFers in the present cabinet will ever be a minister again.
Neither will there be a green party of note!

I can see however the budget this year being a problem.WE will now NOT apparently have either water rates or a property tax!.We can not touch the oldies!We cannot touch infrastructural developement! Where on earth are we gonna find 3 billion?

Somebodies not going to be happy!
The independants are sure to get anxty..if they are not already!
The back benchers are getting addled!


So it could come!...isn't politics great!
 

liamfoley

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Bah! The poll does not offer the most relevant option; as long as the coalition have enough votes.
 

cyberianpan

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I think it is hard to say

The atmosphere between GP & FF is really not that good now...

After the budget would be a time when FF may feel they've done their duty by pushing through cuts

Add to that the inevitable bye elections... which will likely deliver a serious message & put pressure on Lowry/McGrath/Healey Rae... I think February 2011 - May 2011 is likely

cYp
 

liamfoley

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I think it is hard to say

The atmosphere between GP & FF is really not that good now...

After the budget would be a time when FF may feel they've done their duty by pushing through cuts

Add to that the inevitable bye elections... which will likely deliver a serious message & put pressure on Lowry/McGrath/Healey Rae... I think February 2011 - May 2011 is likely

cYp
Then there is the December budget, it will pass but it will piss off a lot of people.
 

spidermom

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Opps...sat night and all!!
I don't think the budget will pass!!


(don't haunt with this post!!....!!)
 

spidermom

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Geez...I have standards!!

Have a feeling that we will not get to budget time!
However this post will come back to haunt me, no doubt by Eurocitizen, who will adopt it as their sig!!...:(
 

DeGaulle 2.0

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Neither will there be a green party of note!

I can see however the budget this year being a problem.WE will now NOT apparently have either water rates or a property tax!.We can not touch the oldies!We cannot touch infrastructural developement! Where on earth are we gonna find 3 billion?

Somebodies not going to be happy!
The independants are sure to get anxty..if they are not already!
The back benchers are getting addled!


So it could come!...isn't politics great!
I expect capital spending to be slashed - it's the easiest option. Some tax allowances will be removed, some social welfare will be reduced.

The problem is that we are borrowing 20 billion a year and paying 5% interest for the privilege. So after 3 years of this we have a permanent annual bill of 3 billion interest ... which negates the entire budget this year .... we are on the Titanic and are heading slowly but unstoppably to the iceberg marked default.
 

Mitsui2

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Geez...I have standards!!

Have a feeling that we will not get to budget time!
However this post will come back to haunt me, no doubt by Eurocitizen, who will adopt it as their sig!!...:(
Well we know we can't rely on FF for ethics, honesty, responsibility or integrity, but one quality they do have in spades is cunning. So now that everyone that matters has had time to do a lot of shredding and asset-hiding, I certainly wouldn't put it past them to call a snap election come autumn and dump the whole horrid mess in someone else's lap, in hopes of getting back in next time.

God help me, I even think the Irish electorate might fall for it.
 

jackryan

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Why this rush to a general election!! don't let FF off the hook, No better people to move over to opposition and be the uncut party! let them at it, and record every word they say!
 


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