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Gay Marriage Support And The Bradley Effect?


General Urko

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I sincerely hope that this is not the case but could there be an element of the Bradley effect in the 70% opinion poll support for gay marriage in our great little country of liars? Basically, telling pollsters something to make yourself look like a liberal instead of a God forsaken Redneck imbecile!

From Wki -

It was named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.[6]

The Bradley effect theory posits that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias.[7][8] Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. Members of the public may feel under pressure to provide an answer that is deemed to be more publicly acceptable, or 'politically correct'. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor into voters' answers

Wait until the old Theocratic state's overlords get involved! Ala the first divorce referendum!
 


General Urko

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So any offers on this one?
 

Dame_Enda

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Of course it's possible. I think there remains some latent homophobia especially amongst men, some of whom frown on it as "unmanly". Having said that I think the country has changed and it will pass but one danger to it will be ifg the no campaign can persuade people it will somehow be bad for children. I think maye 55-45 is closer to the final outcome than 70-30. There is a history of divisive social issues starting off with strong support which then get very close by polling day e.g. divorce/abortion referendums.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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This has been discussed on many Gay marriage threads already.

Do we really need yet another one.

For the record I have no problem with gay marriage, but if I see any more threads on it I will be tempted to change my mind. You could call it the over subjected to gay marriage threads effect!
 

The Herren

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I would like to marry my dog. I wonder does than mean I am a modern altruistic liberal or
"a God forsaken Redneck imbecile!"?
 

General Urko

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I would like to marry my dog. I wonder does than mean I am a modern altruistic liberal or
"a God forsaken Redneck imbecile!"?
Well if you want to have carnal knowledge of said dog after marriage, probably both!:roll:
 

Tin Foil Hat

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1982 was a long time ago. The US has a black president since then.
The only hope of defeating the gay marriage referendum is a tiny, tiny turnout. There are not enough Ronan Mullins' or John Waters' in this country to carry a high No vote. Gay marriage is as black and white as giving women the vote. There is no argument against it. The only people who will even try will be advocates for a discredited, and dying, religion.
Even moderately low turnout will pass this referendum comfortably. A medium turnout will pass this referendum by a conservative 67-68%. A high turnout will pass it by 75-80% plus.
 

Mercurial

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Yes.

I am not at all confident that a referendum would be successful.
 

talkingshop

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There are not enough Ronan Mullins' or John Waters' in this country to carry a high No vote. Gay marriage is as black and white as giving women the vote. There is no argument against it. The only people who will even try will be advocates for a discredited, and dying, religion.
And it is exactly this sort of intolerance- we are right, any disagreement with us has no validity - towards anyone leaning towards a different view, that may eventually sway many initially neutral people towards a no vote. But keep at it, by all means.
 

General Urko

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FF slyboy support for it indicates they have read the tea leaves and they suggest it will be carried in a referendum. Oddly and proudly, Ireland will be one of the few countries in the world to pass it by referendum, maybe the only one!
Mind you an anti-Gilmore sentiment may cost it a few votes or if tis combined with other amendments like giving the vote to children!
 

General Urko

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And it is exactly this sort of intolerance- we are right, any disagreement with us has no validity - towards anyone leaning towards a different view, that may eventually sway many initially neutral people towards a no vote. But keep at it, by all means.
In fairness, he did mention 2 absolute redneck clowns who would not look out of place in Tehran during the revolution indeed among the Taliban today, though they wouldn't have the cohones to fight the marines!
 

stopdoingstuff

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It will definitely pass. Bradley effect or no Bradley effect there is no way it won't pass. Hmm, I assume I will be able to have a bet on that somewhere.
 

storybud1

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1982 was a long time ago. The US has a black president since then.
The only hope of defeating the gay marriage referendum is a tiny, tiny turnout. There are not enough Ronan Mullins' or John Waters' in this country to carry a high No vote. Gay marriage is as black and white as giving women the vote. There is no argument against it. The only people who will even try will be advocates for a discredited, and dying, religion.
Even moderately low turnout will pass this referendum comfortably. A medium turnout will pass this referendum by a conservative 67-68%. A high turnout will pass it by 75-80% plus.
A discredited Religion ? the hocus pocus stuff is all rubbish but the general socialist and loving thy neighbour message from Christianity makes a mockery of Gilmore/Higgins etc, total and utter A resholes living it up while preaching, yes PREACHING their own discredited Religion.

Gay marriage is nuts, not because two people do not deserve to settle down but because long term it will not be around when abortions are carried out on Gay unborns. The paradox is fascinating for Liberals, abortion on demand so when the gay gene is identified then abortion is no problem.Gays cannot have children inside the marriage, EVER ? 100%

Just ask yourself, if abortion on demand is ok then if the gay gene if found then is an abortion not a problem?
 

General Urko

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It will definitely pass. Bradley effect or no Bradley effect there is no way it won't pass. Hmm, I assume I will be able to have a bet on that somewhere.
I sincerely hope it does as it will mark a milestone turn from the theocratic state, mind you tell that to Savita's husband!
But how are you so sure?
 

General Urko

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A discredited Religion ? the hocus pocus stuff is all rubbish but the general socialist and loving thy neighbour message from Christianity makes a mockery of Gilmore/Higgins etc, total and utter A resholes living it up while preaching, yes PREACHING their own discredited Religion.

Gay marriage is nuts, not because two people do not deserve to settle down but because long term it will not be around when abortions are carried out on Gay unborns. The paradox is fascinating for Liberals, abortion on demand so when the gay gene is identified then abortion is no problem.Gays cannot have children inside the marriage, EVER ? 100%

Just ask yourself, if abortion on demand is ok then if the gay gene if found then is an abortion not a problem?
One of the most prominent researchers in the area is gay and he has more or less found the gay gene already! One of the very first questions he was asked was, if it's possible to see if a foetus has this gene, inevitably people will be aborted because of it and how do you feel about this? His answer (one, I wouldn't support in this case or with any real disabilty) was, it's the woman's decision!
A pro abortionist mate told me such parents shouldn't be allowed to have children in the first place!
 

stopdoingstuff

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I sincerely hope it does as it will mark a milestone turn from the theocratic state, mind you tell that to Savita's husband!
But how are you so sure?
Because there is no good reason not to pass it and people are sensible by and large. With an issue like abortion there is an arguable case about the sanctity of life and stuff like that. But with gay marriage there is no forceful or even semi-persuasive argument against it. Even among the more religious people with whom I am acquainted, there is no great sense of having to fight some obvious evil. I just don't see where the campaign against it is going to come from and where it is going to gain significant support. The best hope that the religious faction has is that people will get so riled up about abortion that the infrastructure of a campaign will already exist, but even then it is a long shot. I certainly wouldn't vote against it either.
 

Amnesiac

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Is it that people report liberal views and them vote conservative, or those who report liberal views are less likely to vote?
 

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