GDP growth of 6% in 2007 now very likely.

freedomlover

Active member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
198
The third quarter GDP/GNP figures (link below) were published by the CSO this morning. They confirm that GDP growth in 2007 will be around 6% in 2007. For the first three quarters of 2007 GDP was up by 6.0% compared with the first three quarters of 2006. For the first three quarters of 2007 GNP was up by 5.9% compared with the first three quarters of 2006. In the fourth quarter of 2006 GDP actually fell, so the upshot is that, even if there is no further growth in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007, GDP growth for 2007 as a whole will be just over 6%. If there is even modest growth of about 1% in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007, then GDP growth for 2007 as a whole will be about 6.25%. GNP growth is a bit more volatile and unpredictable than GDP growth because it partly depends on the timing of multi-national companies payments abroad. But, in the first three quarters of 2007, GNP growth and GDP growth are virtually identical, 6.0% for GDP, 5.9% for GNP. The final year figures for 2007 are very likely to be of similar magnitude.

It is nice to end the year's posting on P.ie on a note of triumph. I've consistently predicted that GDP growth for 2007 would be 5.8%. A couple of weeks ago, on one of Ard-Taoiseach's threads (can't remember which), I revised my forecast up to the range 6.0% to 6.5%. Its now clear I was spot on. Contrast this with forecasters like ESRI, Davy, even Brian Cowen. In the past couple of months ESRI and Davy revised their 2007 GDP forecasts down to 4.4% and 4.0% respectively, while Brian Cowen revised his 2007 GDP forecast down to 4.75%. At the time I posted that they were wrong to revise their forecasts down and predicted that GDP growth in 2006 would be around 6.0%, exactly as predicted at the start of the year. They'll all have to scramble to revise their 2007 forecasts back up again in the next few weeks. Of particular note is that GNP in the third quarter of 2007 was 6.0% up on the third quarter of 2006. How often have we been told by the doommonger posters on P.ie that 2007 would be a year of two halves, that year-on-year growth in the second half of 2007 would collapse to 1% (which they describe as 'skirting with recession')? Not in their wildest nightmares did they envisage year-on-year GNP growth in the second half of 2007 being 6%.

ESRI are worthy of particular attention. Its a standard ESRI ploy over the years that, when CSO figures are published that show ESRI's forecast for the current year to be hopelessly wrong, they try to distract attention from that fact by publishing their forecast for the following year on the same day. Thus, for the past few months ESRI have been forecasting 4.4% GDP growth in 2007. The CSO figures out today show that their 2007 forecast will be wrong by about 2%. But, hey, never mind, publish the 2008 forecast to coincide with the CSO figures and hope that nobody will notice that the 2007 forecast is hopelessly wrong.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/ ... nt/qna.pdf
 


Ard-Taoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
Excellent stuff, freedomlover, I might add that this ties in nicely with my own 6% forecast too!

Very encouraging to see things like exports and industry lead growth again, with consumption providing additional buoyancy.
 

Armchair Activist

Well-known member
Joined
May 6, 2007
Messages
2,032
Some forecasters are putting 08 figures at around the 3.5 mark, are they right in doing so or what???
 

Dee Four

Active member
Joined
Sep 27, 2005
Messages
145
Dillinger said:
I am reallly excited about 2006 after seeing these figures.
Oh dear. I think you may be in for a bit of a disappointment.
 

Blue Tide

Member
Joined
Mar 3, 2007
Messages
15
From the business section of RTE.ie:
"According to new figures from the Central Statistics Office, the economy was buoyed up by strong spending by consumers and the Government sector. However, investment in the economy was down by 7.5%."

Consumer spending and government spending are not sustainable sources of economic growth and only serve to plaster ove cracks, giving a false impression of the actual economic situation. If it was export led growth or growth as a result of increased investment, these figures would be a source of comfort. Consumer spending will be hit by the increased unemployment of the construction sector next year and I'm sure they'll be less in the government's coffers to spend as well.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
Armchair Activist said:
Some forecasters are putting 08 figures at around the 3.5 mark, are they right in doing so or what???
I'd put growth next year at about 4.5%, the ESRI have forecast 2.3% today and if you add 2% to their predictions, you get what the growth figure will be.
 

rockofcashel

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
Messages
7,998
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
freedomlover said:
The third quarter GDP/GNP figures (link below) were published by the CSO this morning. They confirm that GDP growth in 2007 will be around 6% in 2007. For the first three quarters of 2007 GDP was up by 6.0% compared with the first three quarters of 2006. For the first three quarters of 2007 GNP was up by 5.9% compared with the first three quarters of 2006. In the fourth quarter of 2006 GDP actually fell, so the upshot is that, even if there is no further growth in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007, GDP growth for 2007 as a whole will be just over 6%. If there is even modest growth of about 1% in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007, then GDP growth for 2007 as a whole will be about 6.25%. GNP growth is a bit more volatile and unpredictable than GDP growth because it partly depends on the timing of multi-national companies payments abroad. But, in the first three quarters of 2007, GNP growth and GDP growth are virtually identical, 6.0% for GDP, 5.9% for GNP. The final year figures for 2007 are very likely to be of similar magnitude.

It is nice to end the year's posting on P.ie on a note of triumph. I've consistently predicted that GDP growth for 2007 would be 5.8%. A couple of weeks ago, on one of Ard-Taoiseach's threads (can't remember which), I revised my forecast up to the range 6.0% to 6.5%. Its now clear I was spot on. Contrast this with forecasters like ESRI, Davy, even Brian Cowen. In the past couple of months ESRI and Davy revised their 2007 GDP forecasts down to 4.4% and 4.0% respectively, while Brian Cowen revised his 2007 GDP forecast down to 4.75%. At the time I posted that they were wrong to revise their forecasts down and predicted that GDP growth in 2006 would be around 6.0%, exactly as predicted at the start of the year. They'll all have to scramble to revise their 2007 forecasts back up again in the next few weeks. Of particular note is that GNP in the third quarter of 2007 was 6.0% up on the third quarter of 2006. How often have we been told by the doommonger posters on P.ie that 2007 would be a year of two halves, that year-on-year growth in the second half of 2007 would collapse to 1% (which they describe as 'skirting with recession')? Not in their wildest nightmares did they envisage year-on-year GNP growth in the second half of 2007 being 6%.

ESRI are worthy of particular attention. Its a standard ESRI ploy over the years that, when CSO figures are published that show ESRI's forecast for the current year to be hopelessly wrong, they try to distract attention from that fact by publishing their forecast for the following year on the same day. Thus, for the past few months ESRI have been forecasting 4.4% GDP growth in 2007. The CSO figures out today show that their 2007 forecast will be wrong by about 2%. But, hey, never mind, publish the 2008 forecast to coincide with the CSO figures and hope that nobody will notice that the 2007 forecast is hopelessly wrong.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/ ... nt/qna.pdf
which is more appropriate :



or

 

rockofcashel

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
Messages
7,998
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
Blue Tide said:
From the business section of RTE.ie:
"According to new figures from the Central Statistics Office, the economy was buoyed up by strong spending by consumers and the Government sector. However, investment in the economy was down by 7.5%."
Yup.. SSIA money and election spending..

wheres the boost coming from next year
 

Ard-Taoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
An area to be cheerful about in this report is that net exports are up €548 million on the same period last year. Very good to see our tradeable sectors contributing to our ongoing growth story.
 

Anorakphobia

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 13, 2007
Messages
911
Ard-Taoiseach said:
[quote="Armchair Activist":1h28c3sa]Some forecasters are putting 08 figures at around the 3.5 mark, are they right in doing so or what???
I'd put growth next year at about 4.5%, the ESRI have forecast 2.3% today and if you add 2% to their predictions, you get what the growth figure will be.[/quote:1h28c3sa]

I will bet you €100,000 that we wont see 4.5% next year and just in case there is any doubt I am deadly serious if you are interested.

It really is time to prick you and Smashy's myopic warbling.
 

freedomlover

Active member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
198
Ard-Taoiseach said:
Excellent stuff, freedomlover, I might add that this ties in nicely with my own 6% forecast too!

Very encouraging to see things like exports and industry lead growth again, with consumption providing additional buoyancy.
Yes indeed, Ard-Taoiseach. Its pretty certain now that YOU will prove to be the most accurate forecaster for 2007, bar none. I wonder if there is a prize for that. You were consistently forecasting 6% GDP growth all year, while I was forecasting a mere 5.8%. Looks very likely now that your's will be more accurate. I cheated slightly by revising mine up to 6% plus last week. But, that's a bit like changing one's forecast for the outcome of a football match when its moving into stoppage time.
 

meriwether

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 1, 2004
Messages
12,539
6% growth.
That got us what - how much of a budget defecit, and how much borrowing by Cowen?
Not a good result.

Less than that next year- even worse.

I wonder if there is a prize for that.
Is your arse-licking not the prize?
 

Ard-Taoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
freedomlover said:
Ard-Taoiseach said:
Excellent stuff, freedomlover, I might add that this ties in nicely with my own 6% forecast too!

Very encouraging to see things like exports and industry lead growth again, with consumption providing additional buoyancy.
Yes indeed, Ard-Taoiseach. Its pretty certain now that YOU will prove to be the most accurate forecaster for 2007, bar none. I wonder if there is a prize for that. You were consistently forecasting 6% GDP growth all year, while I was forecasting a mere 5.8%. Looks very likely now that your's will be more accurate. I cheated slightly by revising mine up to 6% plus last week. But, that's a bit like changing one's forecast for the outcome of a football match when its moving into stoppage time.
Tbh, I read about Bank of Ireland's 6% growth forecast at the start of the year and I thought that was the most likely scenario and have run with it ever since.
 

Blue Tide

Member
Joined
Mar 3, 2007
Messages
15
Ard-Taoiseach said:
An area to be cheerful about in this report is that net exports are up €548 million on the same period last year. Very good to see our tradeable sectors contributing to our ongoing growth story.
What about in real terms? Most, if not all, of that increase is offset by inflation. For example, if we export 50Billion euro worth of goods and it rose this year by 5% which would be 250Million and 5% is our inflation rate, our exports wouldn't increase in real terms at all.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
Blue Tide said:
[quote="Ard-Taoiseach":21rq94rt]An area to be cheerful about in this report is that net exports are up €548 million on the same period last year. Very good to see our tradeable sectors contributing to our ongoing growth story.
What about in real terms? Most, if not all, of that increase is offset by inflation.[/quote:21rq94rt]

That is in real terms! They're calculated at constant prices! Am I the only person who realises this? Inflation could be a million percent plus or minus and it wouldn't matter a tap to CSO figures as they all account for the inflationary effect.
 

Blue Tide

Member
Joined
Mar 3, 2007
Messages
15
Ard-Taoiseach said:
[quote="Blue Tide":2nla5n93][quote="Ard-Taoiseach":2nla5n93]An area to be cheerful about in this report is that net exports are up €548 million on the same period last year. Very good to see our tradeable sectors contributing to our ongoing growth story.
What about in real terms? Most, if not all, of that increase is offset by inflation.[/quote:2nla5n93]

That is in real terms! They're calculated at constant prices! Am I the only person who realises this? Inflation could be a million percent plus or minus and it wouldn't matter a tap to CSO figures as they all account for the inflationary effect.[/quote:2nla5n93]

Oh right. Interesting.....
 

Ard-Taoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
Blue Tide said:
[quote="Ard-Taoiseach":2zjjr8yx][quote="Blue Tide":2zjjr8yx][quote="Ard-Taoiseach":2zjjr8yx]An area to be cheerful about in this report is that net exports are up €548 million on the same period last year. Very good to see our tradeable sectors contributing to our ongoing growth story.
What about in real terms? Most, if not all, of that increase is offset by inflation.[/quote:2zjjr8yx]

That is in real terms! They're calculated at constant prices! Am I the only person who realises this? Inflation could be a million percent plus or minus and it wouldn't matter a tap to CSO figures as they all account for the inflationary effect.[/quote:2zjjr8yx]

Oh right. Interesting.....[/quote:2zjjr8yx]

Yep, they stick constant prices at the end of the figures they publish, ergo, this year's 3% inflation will be adjusted for before the figures are published.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top