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GE 2019 Ireland?

Leo's Loincloth

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What's the thinking on when the GE will be? Will Leo go for it while the smaller parties are spent up and wrecked from the LEs or will Micheal be the one to pull the trigger before the Budget? Can FG survive any more train wrecks?
 


Catahualpa

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Mid October if it happens at all

The Dail doesn't break until 11 July I believe

Then there are the 'Summer Holidays'

Dáil returns late September & is immediately dissolved

Three week campaign

Pencil in Friday 11th October for polling day

Then there would be the inevitable Coalition talks - probably leading to a FG/Green ticket + the usual 'Indos'

That will take a couple of weeks to iron out...

Absolutely imperative that a Government is in place by Thursday 31 October.

Brexit Day

A very tight schedule nevertheless
 

jmcc

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Or an attempt at getting a final budget through first. Cut and run after that and let FF pick up the Brexit pieces?
 

Catahualpa

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Or an attempt at getting a final budget through first. Cut and run after that and let FF pick up the Brexit pieces?
Naw- your not in politics to let the other crowd get their paws on the levers of Power

Its either a GE or a series of messy bye elections

And That really is Penalty Shootout timeframe...

Just too many hostages to fortune in a situation where the electorate love giving the Government of the day a good kicking

- to remind them just who it is put them on the pitch in the 1st place. ⚽
 

Estragon

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Nobody seems particularly pushed on having an election. Although there is a viral going around about what bounders Eoghan Murphy's father and grandfather were. Personally, knowing his grandfather diddled Gay Byrne out of a chunk of punts has made me look at the grandson in a whole new light.

C'mon give Eoghan Murphy your number one! As a nation we still own this family a debt!
 

jmcc

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Naw- your not in politics to let the other crowd get their paws on the levers of Power

Its either a GE or a series of messy bye elections

And That really is Penalty Shootout timeframe...

Just too many hostages to fortune in a situation where the electorate love giving the Government of the day a good kicking

- to remind them just who it is put them on the pitch in the 1st place. ⚽
Interesting. But there's a far more dangerous threat to the FF/FG position emerging in the shape of the Greens. It could very well gain seats in the next GE at the expense of FG and FF. With the Greens, the SocDems and SF, there could be an almost coherent Leftish group emerging. (The Greens aren't really traditionally Left either but they have an ability to network.)
 

Catahualpa

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Interesting. But there's a far more dangerous threat to the FF/FG position emerging in the shape of the Greens. It could very well gain seats in the next GE at the expense of FG and FF. With the Greens, the SocDems and SF, there could be an almost coherent Leftish group emerging. (The Greens aren't really traditionally Left either but they have an ability to network.)
Well if the Green wave rolls onshore then they will be courted by both FF & FG

But after being in one abusive relationship with the Soldiers of Destiny I cant see there being much appetite for another go in the sack with the same partners...

Leo would be the safer bet IMO

My gut feeling though is we are heading towards a GE this year.
 
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jmcc

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Well if the Green wave rolls onshore then they will be courted by both FF & FG
FF moreso than FG as a lot of the Greens seats seem to have been at the expense of FG.

But after being in one abusive relationship with the Soldiers of Destiny I cant see their being much appetite for another go in the sack with the same partners...
The Greens are realists when it comes to getting their policies implemented. There was a split in the Green movement with the more fundamentalist element moving to Fis Nua (which seems to have disappeared).

Leo would be the safer bet IMO
His slimey politics by press release is beginning to irritate people and there are questions being asked about his leadership skills.

My gut feeling though is we are heading towards a GE this year.
FG is basically like a man hanging on to a rising balloon that's drifting over a cliff (Brexit).
 

Baron von Biffo

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Well if the Green wave rolls onshore then they will be courted by both FF & FG

But after being in one abusive relationship with the Soldiers of Destiny I cant see their being much appetite for another go in the sack with the same partners...

Leo would be the safer bet IMO

My gut feeling though is we are heading towards a GE this year.
Read Dan Boyle's book Without Power or Glory. In it he describes the renegotiation of the FF/Green programme for government and how he felt that Eamon Ryan to be an extra member of the FF team.

The Greens under Ryan will triumph over their conscience if the deal is right.
 

Catch22

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I think Leo should have cut and run last week and had the election in late June. Now the problem is where to fit in. September and October means not getting the benefit of the autumn budget, I imagine the last week in November is a possibility but I think any party in Government who call an election as the Brits crash out of Europe will be crashing out of Government. The more I think about it 2020 is more likely.
 

Dame_Enda

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FF seem to have flatlined since 2016. Based on the EP election their vote collapsed, whereas in the locals their vote went up slightly.

There is a strong constitutional argument that President Higgins could refuse a Dail dissolution if FF were to pull the plug on the confidence and supply agreement. The Constitution states that the President can refuse a dissolution if the Taoiseach has lost the support of a Dail majority.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Interesting. But there's a far more dangerous threat to the FF/FG position emerging in the shape of the Greens. It could very well gain seats in the next GE at the expense of FG and FF. With the Greens, the SocDems and SF, there could be an almost coherent Leftish group emerging. (The Greens aren't really traditionally Left either but they have an ability to network.)
The Greens got just under 6%, and now the other parties are onto them. They won't gain floods of seats, especially once their views on stuff like halting sites become known during the senior hurling phase of the election campaign. .
 

hiding behind a poster

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FF seem to have flatlined since 2016. Based on the EP election their vote collapsed, whereas in the locals their vote went up slightly.

There is a strong constitutional argument that President Higgins could refuse a Dail dissolution if FF were to pull the plug on the confidence and supply agreement. The Constitution states that the President can refuse a dissolution if the Taoiseach has lost the support of a Dail majority.
You might quote the relevant part of the Constitution in full? And also, on what grounds would Higgins refuse a dissolution in that scenario?
 

hiding behind a poster

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I think Leo should have cut and run last week and had the election in late June. Now the problem is where to fit in. September and October means not getting the benefit of the autumn budget, I imagine the last week in November is a possibility but I think any party in Government who call an election as the Brits crash out of Europe will be crashing out of Government. The more I think about it 2020 is more likely.
I'd say November, or February 2020.
 

Dame_Enda

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You might quote the relevant part of the Constitution in full? And also, on what grounds would Higgins refuse a dissolution in that scenario?
Article 13.2 says:

2° The President may in his absolute discretion refuse to dissolve Dáil Éireann on the advice of a Taoiseach who has ceased to retain the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann.
 

jmcc

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The Greens got just under 6%, and now the other parties are onto them. They won't gain floods of seats, especially once their views on stuff like halting sites become known during the senior hurling phase of the election campaign. .
The Greens have become the acceptable Anyone But FF/FG/SF option. How could one, in good conscience, vote for a bunch of fiscally incompetent spivs who are more worried about their social media presence than wasting the public money?
 

Round tower

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And what would then happen if the President refused a dissolution?
He could ask FF as the next biggest party to try and form a Gov., those who are in their 40's could remember the early 80's when Hillary was president when we had a couple of GE in a short period. A FG led Gov. had lost a Dail vote, it could have being Brutn's VAT on shoes budget So while Garret went to the park to get the Dal disolved someone in FF decided to ring the park to try and get PH to refuse to disolve the Dail so they could try and form a Gov., it failed PH refused to take the call.
 

Baron von Biffo

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FF seem to have flatlined since 2016. Based on the EP election their vote collapsed, whereas in the locals their vote went up slightly.

There is a strong constitutional argument that President Higgins could refuse a Dail dissolution if FF were to pull the plug on the confidence and supply agreement. The Constitution states that the President can refuse a dissolution if the Taoiseach has lost the support of a Dail majority.
The President has that power but he's not a fool so he wouldn't use it in those circumstances.
 

Baron von Biffo

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He could ask FF as the next biggest party to try and form a Gov., those who are in their 40's could remember the early 80's when Hillary was president when we had a couple of GE in a short period. A FG led Gov. had lost a Dail vote, it could have being Brutn's VAT on shoes budget So while Garret went to the park to get the Dal disolved someone in FF decided to ring the park to try and get PH to refuse to disolve the Dail so they could try and form a Gov., it failed PH refused to take the call.
While the president has the power to refuse a dissolution th a Taoiseach who ceases to retain the support of a majority in the Dail, he does not have the power to ask anyone to form a government.
 


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