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GE 2019 Ireland?

Round tower

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While the president has the power to refuse a dissolution th a Taoiseach who ceases to retain the support of a majority in the Dail, he does not have the power to ask anyone to form a government.
Did not say they have but he has the power to refuse to disolve the Dail and ask the opposition to go into talks to try and form a new Gov.
 


Round tower

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Baron von Biffo

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Did not say they have but he has the power to refuse to disolve the Dail and ask the opposition to go into talks to try and form a new Gov.
He has the power to refuse a dissolution to a Taoiseach who has ceased to retain the support of a majority in the Dail.

That's the limit of his power.

He has absolutely no power to ask the opposition to go into talks or to involve himself in any other way with government formation.
 

Round tower

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He has the power to refuse a dissolution to a Taoiseach who has ceased to retain the support of a majority in the Dail.

That's the limit of his power.

He has absolutely no power to ask the opposition to go into talks or to involve himself in any other way with government formation.
U are splitting hairs, so ok Leo loses condidence of the Dail, he goes to the park and says to MD that he has lost his support in the Dail. MD ok i wont disolve the Dail, so what then?
 

Baron von Biffo

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U are splitting hairs,
It's not splitting hairs. The president has no power to involve himself in government formation. For him to do so would be gross misconduct.

so ok Leo loses condidence of the Dail, he goes to the park and says to MD that he has lost his support in the Dail. MD ok i wont disolve the Dail, so what then?
I think that in the present circumstances, were Michael D to refuse a dissolution it would be sufficient grounds to seek his removal due to diminished capacity.
 

ainm_eile

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Can’t imagine Leo risking losing seats to the Greens after the revelations about the ESB leaking oil on RTE
 

hiding behind a poster

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He could ask FF as the next biggest party to try and form a Gov., those who are in their 40's could remember the early 80's when Hillary was president when we had a couple of GE in a short period. A FG led Gov. had lost a Dail vote, it could have being Brutn's VAT on shoes budget So while Garret went to the park to get the Dal disolved someone in FF decided to ring the park to try and get PH to refuse to disolve the Dail so they could try and form a Gov., it failed PH refused to take the call.
Oh I remember all that, but my understanding is that, notwithstanding his absolute discretion, the President would be guided by whether or not someone else can form a government without a dissolution. With the present Dail arithmetic, I'm not sure he could plausibly take that view.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Did not say they have but he has the power to refuse to disolve the Dail and ask the opposition to go into talks to try and form a new Gov.
I'm not sure he has that power either. If he refuses a dissolution, the Taoiseach returns to the Dail and tells it what happened, what if the Opposition just say nothing?
 

locke

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Brexit and the by-elections are the major factors here.

By-elections are usually used by the electorate to punish governments. These ones are also in constituencies that won't be so government-friendly. Only in Wexford do I see FG having a chance, and FF are the favourites there. They won't want to go in on a lack of momentum. So if Leo goes he will want to go before them.

He will also be concerned to not go when Brexit isn't tied up. That means that he has a very narrow window to go for.

For Fianna Fáil the opportunity lies in doing well in the by-elections, saying the Government has lost the support of the people and that a full election is needed. So they would call after the by-elections.
 

Baron von Biffo

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Brexit and the by-elections are the major factors here.

By-elections are usually used by the electorate to punish governments. These ones are also in constituencies that won't be so government-friendly. Only in Wexford do I see FG having a chance, and FF are the favourites there. They won't want to go in on a lack of momentum. So if Leo goes he will want to go before them.

He will also be concerned to not go when Brexit isn't tied up. That means that he has a very narrow window to go for.

For Fianna Fáil the opportunity lies in doing well in the by-elections, saying the Government has lost the support of the people and that a full election is needed. So they would call after the by-elections.
Martin has been playing a blinder since taking over as FF leader.

He's building up an image of FF as a party that's contrite, has learned from the past and is now putting the national interest first. Keeping the C&S agreement on the rails in the face of great pressure has been a considerable achievement.

The result has been to increase FFs political capital while depriving the media of many of the sticks traditionally used against them.

To opportunistically contrive to bring about an unnecessary GE now would undo all that at a stroke. I can't see anything in his history to suggest he'd make such a reckless decision.
 

drjimryan2

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Martin is at the last chance saloon.....he doesn't want to mess up but feels hungry for the Taoiseach post
 

Hitchcock

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One way or another it's likely in the Autumn. FF and FG want an election, the issue is who jumps first - perhaps some faux disagreements may be engineered over the budget.

The result won't be dramatically different to what we have but the Greens will make minor gains, they may return with 5-8 seats - Ryan is drooling at the prospect of government so there will be no issue for them propping up their fellow centre/centre right parties. If then the Soc Dems and Labour made similar minor gains then a 'rainbow' government with FG may arise from that.

Still far more likely the next gov will be FG led than FF.
 

locke

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Isn't the whole point of the Soc Dems to preserve ideological purity and not go into Government where compromise may be required?

They would only go in if their entire programme was agreed and that's not happening.
 

Breanainn

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Isn't the whole point of the Soc Dems to preserve ideological purity and not go into Government where compromise may be required?

They would only go in if their entire programme was agreed and that's not happening.
They've already agreed pacts to share control of Galway City Council, Dublin City Council and Dún Laoghaire Rathdown - the issue doesn't appear to be ideological purity, rather not entering government as the sole junior partner.
 

wombat

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They've already agreed pacts to share control of Galway City Council, Dublin City Council and Dún Laoghaire Rathdown - the issue doesn't appear to be ideological purity, rather not entering government as the sole junior partner.
Interesting coalitions on the Dublin councils, all led by FF, will they be the new rainbow?
 

hiding behind a poster

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Brexit and the by-elections are the major factors here.

By-elections are usually used by the electorate to punish governments. These ones are also in constituencies that won't be so government-friendly. Only in Wexford do I see FG having a chance, and FF are the favourites there. They won't want to go in on a lack of momentum. So if Leo goes he will want to go before them.

He will also be concerned to not go when Brexit isn't tied up. That means that he has a very narrow window to go for.

For Fianna Fáil the opportunity lies in doing well in the by-elections, saying the Government has lost the support of the people and that a full election is needed. So they would call after the by-elections.
That's why the government are unlikely to hold the by-elections. Having said that, you seem to be forgetting Dublin Mid-West, where FG would have to be at least warm favourites to win.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Isn't the whole point of the Soc Dems to preserve ideological purity and not go into Government where compromise may be required?

They would only go in if their entire programme was agreed and that's not happening.
Pretty much. A party that was basically set up to make the avoidance of hard decisions seem like a virtue. I think whoever ends up forming a government would prefer any two buyable Independents to the Soc Dems - as Independents, once bought, usually stay bought.
 


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