GE 2019 Ireland?



midlander12

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Brexit and the by-elections are the major factors here.

By-elections are usually used by the electorate to punish governments. These ones are also in constituencies that won't be so government-friendly. Only in Wexford do I see FG having a chance, and FF are the favourites there. They won't want to go in on a lack of momentum. So if Leo goes he will want to go before them.

He will also be concerned to not go when Brexit isn't tied up. That means that he has a very narrow window to go for.

For Fianna Fáil the opportunity lies in doing well in the by-elections, saying the Government has lost the support of the people and that a full election is needed. So they would call after the by-elections.
I wonder do the byelections have to be held within 6 months to the day of the Euro elections? That only brings you to late Nov. Could the Dail postpone them on the basis that there will be a dissolution in the New Year followed by an election in Feb or early March?

Anyway, I agree these byelections will never happen. If there is no way around it, they will either stage a falling out over the budget, and have an election in October, or otherwise pass a budget and then go in November. But very dicey timing there in regard to Brexit.
 

ergo2

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Interesting. But there's a far more dangerous threat to the FF/FG position emerging in the shape of the Greens. It could very well gain seats in the next GE at the expense of FG and FF. With the Greens, the SocDems and SF, there could be an almost coherent Leftish group emerging. (The Greens aren't really traditionally Left either but they have an ability to network.)
Is there such a thing in Irish politics as a "coherent leftish group"? The lot of them remind me of The Life of Brian.
 

shiel

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I posted this elsewhere but it is appropriate here.

I am loath to get into a partisan party political row since if any other political group had been re-elected in 5 consecutive elections between 1987 and 2007 being human they would probably have let the power go to their heads too.

But the following is a quote from the election manifesto in 2016 of the political group that increased government expenditure from under 20 bn in 1997 to over 100bn in 2010 and bankrupt the country.

'Speech by FF Leader at the launch of the 2016 Manifesto – An Ireland for all

The core objective of Fine Gael and Labour in this election is to say to people that there is no alternative – we must simply let them keep going.
Our country cannot risk letting them keep going. We cannot risk their short-term, divisive and unfair approach. We cannot risk keeping going with the crisis after crisis they have caused in public services.'

The hypocrisy of that statement is breath taking.

They themselves made decisions over the pre-2009 period which bankrupt the country and resulted in major cuts in public services.

Yet they are blaming the people who had to clean up the mess for a 'crisis' in the public services.

In doing that they are unchallenged by the Irish media.

In fact the Irish media are cheer leading them back into power.
 

SuirView

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I posted this elsewhere but it is appropriate here.

I am loath to get into a partisan party political row since if any other political group had been re-elected in 5 consecutive elections between 1987 and 2007 being human they would probably have let the power go to their heads too.

But the following is a quote from the election manifesto in 2016 of the political group that increased government expenditure from under 20 bn in 1997 to over 100bn in 2010 and bankrupt the country.

'Speech by FF Leader at the launch of the 2016 Manifesto – An Ireland for all

The core objective of Fine Gael and Labour in this election is to say to people that there is no alternative – we must simply let them keep going.
Our country cannot risk letting them keep going. We cannot risk their short-term, divisive and unfair approach. We cannot risk keeping going with the crisis after crisis they have caused in public services.'

The hypocrisy of that statement is breath taking.

They themselves made decisions over the pre-2009 period which bankrupt the country and resulted in major cuts in public services.

Yet they are blaming the people who had to clean up the mess for a 'crisis' in the public services.

In doing that they are unchallenged by the Irish media.

In fact the Irish media are cheer leading them back into power.
No links so!
 

shiel

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17,164
No links so!
This country was bankrupt by the decisions of a small number of its own most powerful citizens in charge of its government and its financial institutions in the pre-2009 period.

Government expenditure and bank lending tripled in the pre-2009 period. Result bankruptcy.

In the budget at the time of the bailout the government spent 103 bn and took in 53 bn something like a world record deficit relative to the size of the economy.

We were bailed out by the countries of the EU and the IMF.

the alternative to paying our debts was to let other countries including the poorest pay for them.

The following is a quote from the government at the time of the bailout.

'The assistance of our EU partners and the IMF has been required because of the present high yields on Irish bonds, which have curtailed the State's ability to borrow. Without this external support, the State would not be able to raise the funds required to pay for key public services for our citizens and to provide a functioning banking system to support economic activity.'

At the present time the people who in 2010 in their own words had to have a bailout because they failed to fund the public services or provide a functioning banking service are unchallenged by media on a daily basis when they blame everyone else for the problems caused and which still exist.
 

SuirView

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Mar 29, 2012
Messages
12,542
This country was bankrupt by the decisions of a small number of its own most powerful citizens in charge of its government and its financial institutions in the pre-2009 period.

Government expenditure and bank lending tripled in the pre-2009 period. Result bankruptcy.

In the budget at the time of the bailout the government spent 103 bn and took in 53 bn something like a world record deficit relative to the size of the economy.

We were bailed out by the countries of the EU and the IMF.

the alternative to paying our debts was to let other countries including the poorest pay for them.

The following is a quote from the government at the time of the bailout.

'The assistance of our EU partners and the IMF has been required because of the present high yields on Irish bonds, which have curtailed the State's ability to borrow. Without this external support, the State would not be able to raise the funds required to pay for key public services for our citizens and to provide a functioning banking system to support economic activity.'

At the present time the people who in 2010 in their own words had to have a bailout because they failed to fund the public services or provide a functioning banking service are unchallenged by media on a daily basis when they blame everyone else for the problems caused and which still exist.
No links,
Thought so!
 

hiding behind a poster

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I wonder do the byelections have to be held within 6 months to the day of the Euro elections? That only brings you to late Nov. Could the Dail postpone them on the basis that there will be a dissolution in the New Year followed by an election in Feb or early March?

Anyway, I agree these byelections will never happen. If there is no way around it, they will either stage a falling out over the budget, and have an election in October, or otherwise pass a budget and then go in November. But very dicey timing there in regard to Brexit.
I think it's 6 months from the day the seat falls vacant, which may well be the day the new MEP takes their seat in the European Parliament. That would take you to July 2nd. The next question is whether the writ must be moved or the by-election actually held within 6 months. If it's just the writ, that takes you up to January 2nd - and after that, can the writ be moved without the Dail sitting? If it can't, then you could dissolve the Dail the first day back in early January, and no by-elections.
 

shiel

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Feb 14, 2011
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Brexit and current problems in housing, health etc are labelled 'trainwrecks' in the OP and blamed on the current government.

That those problems were caused by the reckless decisions made by government and financial institutions in pre-2009 Celtic Tiger times is being ignored.

Those decisions resulted in the biggest calamity in the history of the state.

Those reckless decisions were mostly unchallenged by either media or academia in the pre-2009 period.

The figures at the end of 2010 at the time of the bailout were stark. Government had spent just over 100 bn euro in 2010. Government took in just over 50 bn euro 2010. The unemployment rate reached something in the region of 16% around that time.

The government elected in 2011 oversaw a recovery that was as spectacular and as it was unexpected.

Despite problems in housing, health etc and in contrast to 2010 the present situation is that government is not spending more than it is taking in and the unemployment rate is around 5%.

Despite that discussion in the public media is blaming the current holders of government office for the current problems and not those culpable and still powerful people who bankrupt the country in the first place.
 

midlander12

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I think it's 6 months from the day the seat falls vacant, which may well be the day the new MEP takes their seat in the European Parliament. That would take you to July 2nd. The next question is whether the writ must be moved or the by-election actually held within 6 months. If it's just the writ, that takes you up to January 2nd - and after that, can the writ be moved without the Dail sitting? If it can't, then you could dissolve the Dail the first day back in early January, and no by-elections.
Ultimately I suspect FF and FG will do a deal whereby the writs may be moved for the byelections to cover a legal requirement, but the Dail will then be dissolved and the writs rendered moot. This would see a GE in late Feb/early March at the latest.

That's if they get that far - if Brexit can be neutralised or postponed at all, they'll both be gagging to go in October. They need to strike while the iron is hot in terms of the Shinners' woes.
 

wombat

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That's if they get that far - if Brexit can be neutralised or postponed at all, they'll both be gagging to go in October. They need to strike while the iron is hot in terms of the Shinners' woes.
Its unlikely that Brexit will be postponed given that Johnson is the likeliest Tory leader. The last thing we need is to have our politicians scrambling to form a govt if the Brits crash out on Halloween.
 


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