GE 2020 - countdown

Disillusioned democrat

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The writing is on the wall and it's now time to start thinking about GE 2020.

It's a sure sign something's up when someone with a target on their backs like Regina Doherty comes out swinging while at the same time displaying amazing lack of self awareness...if anyone has control it's MM and FF, FG on the other hand have lost any semblance of control over the Dail and Varadkar looks more like a cooked goose than a lame duck.


So - when will the GE be - Feb, Mar or Apr?

Who will the big winners and losers be?

Should the parties be housekeeping now ahead of it?

Should FG look to a new leader ahead of calling it?

What excuse will they use to trigger it?
 


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I think MM should just shut up about it, who cares if it's Easter like he suggests or May? Has he nothing else to be worried about?
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
One can only surmise that Mr Martin has now concluded the overhaul and necessary reforms within his party which stained said party with the reputation of being no better than cattlemart pickpockets.

And he's keen to show us FF's new values in an election campaign :)

Seriously though I can't see Martin or FF being keen on an election being called right at this moment. They missed the boat quite a bit around the Children's Hospital costs farrago, possibly because the control and supply arrangement fine print means support throughout the brexit capers on the island next door.

Martin can't lay a glove on Varadkar in terms of public perception of party leaders and would need a serious decline in regard for Varadkar to want to take him on in that arena.

FF don't seem to have any new philosophy or policy suggestions to lay against FGs programme. I can't see why FF would want to press for an election now. I doubt their agreement with FG would allow for it while brexit still looms.
 

constitutionus

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looking like April to me and i dont think anything will "trigger" it.

oh they may try and manufacture the look of something but i think leo and mehole have decided on the date between them amicably behind the scenes now Brexit is "sorted" and were just in a pantomime of them looking like they actually object to each other.

as to who'll be the big winners i dunno.

im HOPING the status quo continues where neither of em can go back to the aul 2.5 party system of gov- and certainly LAB STILL looks fuked on that front. i quite enjoy the Dail being relevant for once and it nice to see a gov get the occasional "black eye" as opposition legislation gets passed despite the eoin murphys of the worlds protestations.

plus is means they STILL cant force water charges/privatization on the public. which is nice.

on the leadership front. i wouldnt vote FG if me life depended on it (currently) but i dont see the point of removing Vlad. whats the option -coveney? thats pretty much just more of the same. FF would probably have more of a case for change due to meholes legacy status as a destroyer of the country and i dont see any push to do THAT either.

so i reckon were getting the same head the balls in charge for the election as we do now.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Looks a pretty sound analysis to me, Constitutionus.
 

Disillusioned democrat

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looking like April to me and i dont think anything will "trigger" it.

oh they may try and manufacture the look of something but i think leo and mehole have decided on the date between them amicably behind the scenes now Brexit is "sorted" and were just in a pantomime of them looking like they actually object to each other.

as to who'll be the big winners i dunno.

im HOPING the status quo continues where neither of em can go back to the aul 2.5 party system of gov- and certainly LAB STILL looks fuked on that front. i quite enjoy the Dail being relevant for once and it nice to see a gov get the occasional "black eye" as opposition legislation gets passed despite the eoin murphys of the worlds protestations.

plus is means they STILL cant force water charges/privatization on the public. which is nice.

on the leadership front. i wouldnt vote FG if me life depended on it (currently) but i dont see the point of removing Vlad. whats the option -coveney? thats pretty much just more of the same. FF would probably have more of a case for change due to meholes legacy status as a destroyer of the country and i dont see any push to do THAT either.

so i reckon were getting the same head the balls in charge for the election as we do now.
That's very depressing...democracy seems to be throwing up really poor choices globally - Trump vs. Clinton, Johnson vs. Corbyn and now Varadkar vs. Martin.
 
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That's very depressing...democracy seems to be throwing up really poor choices globally - Trump vs. Clinton, Johnson vs. Corbyn and now Varadkar vs. Martin.
Good point. It's like the conservatives are abysmal, so everyone looks at the liberals but they have such a trainwreck for a leader it's impossible to vote for them. It's just less extreme in Ireland's case as usual.
 

Disillusioned democrat

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Good point. It's like the conservatives are abysmal, so everyone looks at the liberals but they have such a trainwreck for a leader it's impossible to vote for them. It's just less extreme in Ireland's case as usual.
It may be a period of self-reflection for poor wee Howling.

He should step away and let Labour out from under his elongated shadow - he's a remnant of governments past who have effectively brought us to where we are, even if he believes himself his presence somehow made austerity more fun.

Labour probably have most to win from GE 2020, but if Howlin's ego prevents him from seeing that then they risk complete annihilation, despite being the only party in the Dail with anything like the credentials to ameliorate the crony capitalist leanings of FFG.
 

shiel

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It may be a period of self-reflection for poor wee Howling.

He should step away and let Labour out from under his elongated shadow - he's a remnant of governments past who have effectively brought us to where we are, even if he believes himself his presence somehow made austerity more fun.

Labour probably have most to win from GE 2020, but if Howlin's ego prevents him from seeing that then they risk complete annihilation, despite being the only party in the Dail with anything like the credentials to ameliorate the crony capitalist leanings of FFG.
Howlin and his crew did not bankrupt the country.

Instead they were stuck with the problem of cleaning up the mess post 2010.

The people who bankrupt the country and who are the 'remnant of governments past who have effectively brought us to where we are' are Martin and his crew.

My assessment is that the Irish media, which more or less determines who governs us, have decided the result of the next election.

They want the people who governed us for 70% of the time since independence, and who bankrupted us in the pre-2010 period, back into power.

But for the fact that Brexit is a major threat this would probably have already happened.

I am not too happy that this is the right thing to do.
 
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Disillusioned democrat

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Howlin and his crew did not bankrupt the country.

Instead they were stuck with the problem of cleaning up the mess post 2010.

The people who bankrupt the country and who are the 'remnant of governments past who have effectively brought us to where we are' are Martin and his crew.

My assessment is that the Irish media, which more or less determines who governs us, have decided the result of the next election.

They want the people who governed us for 70% of the time since independence, and who bankrupted us in the pre-2010 period, back into power.

But for the fact that Brexit is a major threat this would have probably have already happened.

I am not too happy that this is the right thing to do.
I agree somewhat - but the media aren't making Labour unelectable, Labour is by ignoring that they made massive mistakes in the FG led government. Howlin and Burton talk as if they played a blinder, but in effect just went along for the ride and are now stifling any progress that party could make.
 

michael-mcivor

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If there is a amazing brexit deal which pumps up Ireland even better than the border in the Irish Sea you could see a election faster than the light going out of the DUP’s eyes-
 

shiel

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I agree somewhat - but the media aren't making Labour unelectable, Labour is by ignoring that they made massive mistakes in the FG led government. Howlin and Burton talk as if they played a blinder, but in effect just went along for the ride and are now stifling any progress that party could make.

The 'mistakes' made by Howlin and his crew in the post 2010 period pale into insignificance in comparison to the mistakes made by Martin and his crew in the pre 2010 period.

The government deficit in 2010 was over fifty billion - a world record relative to the size of the economy - and three times worse than Greece which went bust at much the same time.

That these people get away with blaming everyone else for the present day problems without being challenged tells us all the agenda of the Irish media is to restore them to power.

That is indefensible.
 

midlander12

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The writing is on the wall and it's now time to start thinking about GE 2020.

It's a sure sign something's up when someone with a target on their backs like Regina Doherty comes out swinging while at the same time displaying amazing lack of self awareness...if anyone has control it's MM and FF, FG on the other hand have lost any semblance of control over the Dail and Varadkar looks more like a cooked goose than a lame duck.


So - when will the GE be - Feb, Mar or Apr?

Who will the big winners and losers be?

Should the parties be housekeeping now ahead of it?

Should FG look to a new leader ahead of calling it?

What excuse will they use to trigger it?
I know everyone is saying it will be April/May but I actually can't see the current setup lasting much longer. Once Brexit has been formalised and the Northern talks have finalised, I think things will move swiftly enough. There is a possibility of he Govt losing a confidence vote, even with FF continuing to abstain.

There will certainly be no leadership challenges in FF or FG ahead if it - that would be suicidal.

Trigger? - who knows? who cares?

Winners - the Greens will certainly gain seats, probably at least 5 on top of the 3 they already have. And FF will certainly gain seats, how many is not at all clear. I think they will take at least 50 but if they manage to avoid major stumbles during the election campaign and get a good wind behind them, they could take 55 or more.

Losers - FG and SF.
FG are defending what was a very poor result in 2016, and they've lost two more seats through a byelection loss and a defection, ending up with 48. On the basis of the local election and byelection results, they'll be lucky to even replicate that. There are a few seats they could pick up on a good day (a third in Mayo, maybe a second in Longford-Westmeath and Cavan-Monaghan, one seat in Tipperary) but many more that are in mortal danger (Fingal, Dun Laoghaire, Galway West, Dublin NW).

Unless they can stage a massive comeback from their local election blowout, SF have to lose seats (Fingal, Wicklow, Cork SC, Limerick E, Carlow-Kilkenny, possibly Kerry and one in Louth) with few likely gains to offset them (Dublin West, maybe a second in Donegal and Cavan-Monaghan, even less likely Wexford).

Lab will probably end up roughly where they are now (6-7, maybe a handful more on a good day), the SD's will hold their 2, and most of the outgoing Indos will be returned.
 

jmcc

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Seems that FG is going after Lisa Chambers. ( O'Dowd complains over Chambers voting for Dooley )This with Mehole's election "date" suggests that the relations between the two parties of government is at a new low. As the Tory Party got a large majority in the UK GE, it means that the Brexit restraint has ended. It may well be an earlier than expected GE here.
 

shiel

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I do not think an Irish general election would be a wise decision.

The following is a quote from the Daily Telegraph.

Things are only starting in the Brexit saga.

'Boris Johnson will guarantee Britain fully leaves the EU with or without a trade deal by the end of 2020 as part of a beefed-up Brexit bill put to Parliament this week.


The Prime Minister will use his huge majority to push through a radically altered bill that will prevent Parliament from extending the transition period beyond Dec 31 next year.


Downing Street intends to hold a vote on the bill this Friday to give voters who backed the Tories an early Christmas present and keep up the momentum of last week’s landslide election win.


It will also prove to voters that Mr Johnson has no intention of using his immense new power to pursue a softer Brexit, as some Leave campaigners had feared.'
 

the secretary

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I know everyone is saying it will be April/May but I actually can't see the current setup lasting much longer. Once Brexit has been formalised and the Northern talks have finalised, I think things will move swiftly enough. There is a possibility of he Govt losing a confidence vote, even with FF continuing to abstain.

There will certainly be no leadership challenges in FF or FG ahead if it - that would be suicidal.

Trigger? - who knows? who cares?

Winners - the Greens will certainly gain seats, probably at least 5 on top of the 3 they already have. And FF will certainly gain seats, how many is not at all clear. I think they will take at least 50 but if they manage to avoid major stumbles during the election campaign and get a good wind behind them, they could take 55 or more.

Losers - FG and SF.
FG are defending what was a very poor result in 2016, and they've lost two more seats through a byelection loss and a defection, ending up with 48. On the basis of the local election and byelection results, they'll be lucky to even replicate that. There are a few seats they could pick up on a good day (a third in Mayo, maybe a second in Longford-Westmeath and Cavan-Monaghan, one seat in Tipperary) but many more that are in mortal danger (Fingal, Dun Laoghaire, Galway West, Dublin NW).

Unless they can stage a massive comeback from their local election blowout, SF have to lose seats (Fingal, Wicklow, Cork SC, Limerick E, Carlow-Kilkenny, possibly Kerry and one in Louth) with few likely gains to offset them (Dublin West, maybe a second in Donegal and Cavan-Monaghan, even less likely Wexford).

Lab will probably end up roughly where they are now (6-7, maybe a handful more on a good day), the SD's will hold their 2, and most of the outgoing Indos will be returned.
I hope to God your second in Donegal for SF prediction doesn't come true. FG actually out polled them here in the locals which is hard to believe.
FG will surely gain in Cavan Monaghan and Tipp. Waterford is looking messy for them now. They could sneak a third in Mayo but not having Enda and doing it will be a hard task.
FF will gain seats. 55 is ambitious but yet who seen them getting 40+ the last time.
 

wombat

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There are probably expense payments for parties or TDs which are paid on a set date. That will be important in timing the election.
 

NYCKY

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looking like April to me and i dont think anything will "trigger" it.

oh they may try and manufacture the look of something but i think leo and mehole have decided on the date between them amicably behind the scenes now Brexit is "sorted" and were just in a pantomime of them looking like they actually object to each other.

as to who'll be the big winners i dunno.

im HOPING the status quo continues where neither of em can go back to the aul 2.5 party system of gov- and certainly LAB STILL looks fuked on that front. i quite enjoy the Dail being relevant for once and it nice to see a gov get the occasional "black eye" as opposition legislation gets passed despite the eoin murphys of the worlds protestations.

plus is means they STILL cant force water charges/privatization on the public. which is nice.

on the leadership front. i wouldnt vote FG if me life depended on it (currently) but i dont see the point of removing Vlad. whats the option -coveney? thats pretty much just more of the same. FF would probably have more of a case for change due to meholes legacy status as a destroyer of the country and i dont see any push to do THAT either.

so i reckon were getting the same head the balls in charge for the election as we do now.

That's a good summation.
 


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