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GE- All to play for in Dun Laoghaire.


Socratus O' Pericles

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
33,553
Down to a 4 seater :

The Greens dead in the water.

FG have got problems without Regan.The Bailey's are not well enough liked-- typical snobby arriviste FG'ers

FG Senator not to seek party nomination for next election - The Irish Times - Sat, Apr 03, 2010

Would Labour run Bacik?

Bacik set to run alongside Gilmore in next election



What about the PBP effect? Boyd Barrett is going well locally.

Andrews nothing short of a disaster in the midst of the child abuse scandal.

Getting exciting but harder to call perhaps 1FF, 1FG, Lab and 1either Lab or PBP
 

Disillusioned democrat

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 16, 2010
Messages
15,615
Unfortunately Andrew's track record in Gov.ie will not stop him being re-elected, and don't undermine the detachment of the average Green Party voter when it comes to re-electing Cuffee - Dun Laoghaire is relatively unharmed by recession/depression and do love their moral high ground.
 

Red_93

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 20, 2010
Messages
4,678
Down to a 4 seater :

The Greens dead in the water.

FG have got problems without Regan.The Bailey's are not well enough liked-- typical snobby arriviste FG'ers

FG Senator not to seek party nomination for next election - The Irish Times - Sat, Apr 03, 2010

Would Labour run Bacik?

Bacik set to run alongside Gilmore in next election



What about the PBP effect? Boyd Barrett is going well locally.

Andrews nothing short of a disaster in the midst of the child abuse scandal.

Getting exciting but harder to call perhaps 1FF, 1FG, Lab and 1either Lab or PBP
Labour won't be running bacik, she is seeking DSE nomination, there's a thread on it somewhere, although they might if she doesn't get the nomination. I reckon labour should run Childers, she would pick up loads'a former green votes having defected herself and was a cllr in Blackrock, at the other end from Ballybrack, Gilmore's base. That's no guarantee though.
 

sumlulu

Active member
Joined
Jan 25, 2008
Messages
126
Down to a 4 seater :

The Greens dead in the water.

FG have got problems without Regan.The Bailey's are not well enough liked-- typical snobby arriviste FG'ers

FG Senator not to seek party nomination for next election - The Irish Times - Sat, Apr 03, 2010

Would Labour run Bacik?

Bacik set to run alongside Gilmore in next election



What about the PBP effect? Boyd Barrett is going well locally.

Andrews nothing short of a disaster in the midst of the child abuse scandal.

Getting exciting but harder to call perhaps 1FF, 1FG, Lab and 1either Lab or PBP
This is Dun Laoghaire your talking about right? Is it not a prerequiste to be a snobby FG'er to live there?
 

Socratus O' Pericles

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
33,553
This is Dun Laoghaire your talking about right? Is it not a prerequiste to be a snobby FG'er to live there?

You may not be aware of

the Nick the nack
the noggin and the brack

but there is a stong working class vote in dlr,boyd barrett went close and Gilmore sailed in.
 

Red_93

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 20, 2010
Messages
4,678
Mightn't FG get 2, or is Barrett retiring? What about Hanafin losing her seat, there is a collapse on the way for FF in Dublin you know.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
33,553
Mightn't FG get 2, or is Barrett retiring? What about Hanafin losing her seat, there is a collapse on the way for FF in Dublin you know.
I suspect it is Andrews rather than Hanafin that will go, as well as being a rotten Minister for Children he does f*** all in the south of the constiuency.

Barett or a clone will do well.

If LAb got its act together it could do well.

The greens attracted some of the protest voters 3,4,5's they won't get these now and will suffer badly
 

Red_93

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Joined
Mar 20, 2010
Messages
4,678
I suspect it is Andrews rather than Hanafin that will go, as well as being a rotten Minister for Children he does f*** all in the south of the constiuency.

Barett or a clone will do well.

If LAb got its act together it could do well.

The greens attracted some of the protest voters 3,4,5's they won't get these now and will suffer badly
There was a lot on DL in the thread 'constituencies where labour will win 2 seats' and most reckoned FG would get 2 after they cleaned up in the locals.
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,330
Posted detailed breakdown of how I think it will go elsewhere, but I expecct 1 FG, 1 Labour and the final two seats between FG, Lab, FF and PBP. I think this could genuinely be one constituency where FF are at risk of having no TDs.
 

Casualbets

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 7, 2004
Messages
1,638
Looking at the local elections, I reckon even with 4 seats FG have to have a reasonable chance of 2 seats.

One of the previous posters is right, in that there is a sizeable working-class/lower middle-class population in the west of Dun Laoghaire town, Sallynoggin, Ballybrack and Shankill. It's an unusual constituency, containing some of the wealthiest areas in the state living cheek by jowl with the areas mentioned above - possibly why it's a fertile breeding ground for middle class socialists such as Boyd-Barrett.

Cuffe only got in last time when he finally got ahead of Boyd-Barrett with the help of Regan's (FG) transfers... considering he was only 130 votes ahead of Regan at the time, his seat was already extremely marginal before the constituency lost a seat, the government's plummeting popularity and PBP's success in the locals.

I can't really see Labour making a bid for 2 seats... any such strategy would require vote-splitting and it really wouldn't make much sense to endanger a popular leader for a long shot at a 2nd seat....

I reckon 1 FF 1 FG 1 LAB... last seat a scrap between FG and Boyd-Barrett...
 

Rebel CNC

Active member
Joined
Apr 2, 2007
Messages
286
Posted detailed breakdown of how I think it will go elsewhere, but I expecct 1 FG, 1 Labour and the final two seats between FG, Lab, FF and PBP. I think this could genuinely be one constituency where FF are at risk of having no TDs.
I doubt if Dun Laoghaire is one. Cowen's treatment of Hanafin may count in her favour come election time.
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,240
Labour won't be running bacik, she is seeking DSE nomination, there's a thread on it somewhere, although they might if she doesn't get the nomination.
As has been discussed elsewhere, she won't be getting the DSE nomination. Labour in DSE have decided (and had it approved by HQ) to nominate one from SEIC, whose members will select Humphries. So she could well be looking for a nomination in Dun Laoghaire.

I reckon labour should run Childers, she would pick up loads'a former green votes having defected herself
People who go from party to party don't necessarily retain loyalty from voters of the party she came from.

and was a cllr in Blackrock, at the other end from Ballybrack, Gilmore's base. That's no guarantee though.
Its certainly no guarantee - the voters of Blackrock are more likely to vote for their current councillors rather than their former ones. There's also an issue for Childers in terms of retaining her Euro seat in 2014 - voters there mightn't take too kindly to her upping sticks for a long-shot Dail seat that isn't even in her Euro constituency.
 

kerrynorth

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 5, 2005
Messages
1,525
I doubt if Dun Laoghaire is one. Cowen's treatment of Hanafin may count in her favour come election time.
Its constituencies like DL that have suffered massive wealth destruction through the housing collapse and massive negative equity to boot. These areas are well motivated to dish out a bit of retribution and the polls show that it is among middle class voters that FF are suffering their biggest collapse in support.
 

escoline

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 19, 2010
Messages
1,130
Looking at the local elections, I reckon even with 4 seats FG have to have a reasonable chance of 2 seats.

One of the previous posters is right, in that there is a sizeable working-class/lower middle-class population in the west of Dun Laoghaire town, Sallynoggin, Ballybrack and Shankill. It's an unusual constituency, containing some of the wealthiest areas in the state living cheek by jowl with the areas mentioned above - possibly why it's a fertile breeding ground for middle class socialists such as Boyd-Barrett.

Cuffe only got in last time when he finally got ahead of Boyd-Barrett with the help of Regan's (FG) transfers... considering he was only 130 votes ahead of Regan at the time, his seat was already extremely marginal before the constituency lost a seat, the government's plummeting popularity and PBP's success in the locals.

I can't really see Labour making a bid for 2 seats... any such strategy would require vote-splitting and it really wouldn't make much sense to endanger a popular leader for a long shot at a 2nd seat....

I reckon 1 FF 1 FG 1 LAB... last seat a scrap between FG and Boyd-Barrett...
I agree with your analysis and the final will probably be FG
 

wombat

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Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
31,940
I doubt if Dun Laoghaire is one. Cowen's treatment of Hanafin may count in her favour come election time.
In 2007 Hanafin promised every school in the constituency everything they could wish for approx cost 1million - this may have something to do with Cowen moving her out of education - he was Finance minister - remember? It will be interesting to see if Cuala get all weather pitches and domed stadium, possibly an Olympic swimming pool on the site of DL baths? :p Otherwise, I still think Andrews will hold the single FF seat.
 

jackryan

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Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
3,693
Lab & FG defo 1 each. if FF with 2 high profilers can't get a seat here the party will be lucky 2 be bigger than Lab. There must be 1 seat between the 2 of them never underestimate the Andrews! So 1 left I'd favour FG with the right candidates if balanced! while Lab might have a lobsided team! Boyd Barrett has an outside chance with a better chance the next time! Greens well unless things change unlikely even if he stayed at the same 1st Pref the transfers won't flow as easily!
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
33,553
FG have 3 here due to outgoing CC. One will go to FF for sure, Hanafin or Cormac Devlin.



Some are sayin Bailey may not hold and FF could get two?


Lab and Indos non entities here left wing seat wrapped up by RBB.
 
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