GE December 2017: Call the results now

statsman

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Yes, I know it hasn't actually happened yet, but a no-confidence motion in Frances Fitzgerald is now almost a certainty, and that means a GE before Christmas. If that happens, then I think we're likely to see the following:

  • A turnout in the 50s percentage-wise.
  • Fewer Indos returned.
  • A small increase in seats for both FG and FF.
  • Not more than 3 Lab TDs returned.
  • Pretty much as you were for SF and the various grouplets of the Left.
  • A hung parliament, no Taoiseach elected on first or second attempt.
  • Negotiations, followed by FF propping up an FG-led minority government.

I know people spend a lot of money on stuff they don't need in December, but this might be taking it a bit too far.
 


blinding

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I am hopeful that Mary Lou will be Taoiseach . Whats the point of having an election if there is not change .
 

statsman

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I am hopeful that Mary Lou will be Taoiseach . Whats the point of having an election if there is not change .
SF won't get much more than 15% of the vote.
 

hollandia

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Sep 11, 2012
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Yes, I know it hasn't actually happened yet, but a no-confidence motion in Frances Fitzgerald is now almost a certainty, and that means a GE before Christmas. If that happens, then I think we're likely to see the following:

  • A turnout in the 50s percentage-wise.
  • Fewer Indos returned.
  • A small increase in seats for both FG and FF.
  • Not more than 3 Lab TDs returned.
  • Pretty much as you were for SF and the various grouplets of the Left.
  • A hung parliament, no Taoiseach elected on first or second attempt.
  • Negotiations, followed by FF propping up an FG-led minority government.

I know people spend a lot of money on stuff they don't need in December, but this might be taking it a bit too far.
I'd prefer to see a pole (sic) first, but:

FF and FG in the 55 - 60 seat range
SF in the 25 -30 seat range
Lab - 0 to 2 seats (max) - howlin is toast on my last reading of the polls, Kelly in with a shout as is Burton if she runs,
SDs - 3
GP 2 - 3
Clare Daly and Mick Wallace
Indos - largely toast.

ETA which means FF-FG, FF-SF or FG-SF. Or a confidence and supply arrangement of same.
 

hammer

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New Politics.

IMFF / FG

or FG / IMFF

No independents probably needed.

First bit of hassle if IMFF are the bigger party : Squeaky bum time for IMFF.
 

statsman

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I'd prefer to see a pole (sic) first, but:

FF and FG in the 55 - 60 seat range
SF in the 25 -30 seat range
Lab - 0 to 2 seats (max) - howlin is toast on my last reading of the polls, Kelly in with a shout as is Burton if she runs,
SDs - 3
GP 2 - 3
Clare Daly and Mick Wallace
Indos - largely toast.

ETA which means FF-FG, FF-SF or FG-SF. Or a confidence and supply arrangement of same.
Didn't take long for the two and a half party system to return, did it?
 

blinding

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SF won;t get much more than 15% of the vote.
Whats the point in voting for ffg again ? Nothing will change . They are institutionally the way they are . They are un-reformable .

If you vote for ffg then you are giving them credibility to continue on their horrible merry way which they will do .
 

statsman

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Whats the point in voting for ffg again ? Nothing will change . They are institutionally the way they are . They are un-reformable .

If you vote for ffg then you are giving them credibility to continue on their horrible merry way which they will do .
The fact remains that people will vote for them.
 

wombat

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Whats the point in voting for ffg again ? Nothing will change . They are institutionally the way they are . They are un-reformable .

If you vote for ffg then you are giving them credibility to continue on their horrible merry way which they will do .
Outside P.ie, most people lead contented lives and have no interest in radical change.
 

blinding

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The fact remains that people will vote for them.
To repeat the same thing over and over again and expect different results is a definition of insanity . Those who vote for them again in this election are insane .

ffg will not change until people stop voting for them .
 

statsman

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Messages
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Outside P.ie, most people lead contented lives and have no interest in radical change.
To repeat the same thing over and over again and expect different results is a definition of insanity . Those who vote for them again in this election are insane .

ffg will not change until people stop voting for them .
What wombat said.
 

Erudite Caveman

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Jul 27, 2016
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Whats the point in voting for ffg again ? Nothing will change . They are institutionally the way they are . They are un-reformable .

If you vote for ffg then you are giving them credibility to continue on their horrible merry way which they will do .
The assumption that people want change is the greatest mistake that is made on these boards.

All the evidence points to people getting very annoyed when things look like changing. Every major protest has been about retaining something in the face of change.
 


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