General Election 2017:

Fullforward

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
7,862
I'm predicting that there will be a General Election next year and looking to see who you THINK will lose their seats, not who you WANT to lose their seat.

I'll start with a few predictions:

Dublin:

I think Fine Gaels Noel Rock will lose out to Fianna Fails Paul McAuliffe in Dublin North West:

I can see either Fine Gaels Catherine Byrne or PBP's Joan Collins loosing out to Fianna Fails Catherine Ardagh:

Labours Joan Burton will finally lose out to Sinn Feins Paul Donnelly in Dublin West:

Despite his promotion to high office I predict Finian McGrath will lose his Dublin Bay North seat but not sure who will take it.

Maureen O'Sullivan could lose out in Dublin Central if Fianna Fail can get a half decent Candidate.

Can Katherine Zappone hold on in Dublin South West?

I'm presently looking at seats outside Dublin and will throw up a few predictions later.


What are your thoughts or predictions folks?
 


Mentalist Clientelist

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 2, 2010
Messages
1,243
Averil "I'm the first person in my family to go to college" Power will probably sneak in, sadly.

Michael "Pepperspray" McNamara might have a shot at redemption.
 

Breanainn

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2014
Messages
2,900
A correction - Joan Collins has been part of Inds4Change for the last few years. As for Dublin Central, don't forget Gary Gannon almost got in for Soc Dems in February, so remains better-placed than FF when transfers are factored in.
 

Fullforward

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
7,862
A correction - Joan Collins has been part of Inds4Change for the last few years. As for Dublin Central, don't forget Gary Gannon almost got in for Soc Dems in February, so remains better-placed than FF when transfers are factored in.
He has a chance but at 0.39 of a quota he has a bit of work to do. Christy Burke (Ind) was on 2,406 1st preferences, Mary Fitz (FF) was on 2,508 and Gary was on 2,307 but he did well on Transfers.

Amazing that Maureen was elected with only 1,990 1st preferences. I suspect that only Pascal and Mary Lou are safe there.
 

Fullforward

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
7,862
Averil "I'm the first person in my family to go to college" Power will probably sneak in, sadly.

Michael "Pepperspray" McNamara might have a shot at redemption.
Can't see McNamara getting back, he has the Labour anchor and was only 200 or so votes ahead of a 1st time SF candidate in that Constituency.
 

Fullforward

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
7,862
Averil "I'm the first person in my family to go to college" Power will probably sneak in, sadly.

Michael "Pepperspray" McNamara might have a shot at redemption.
Can't see it given that she was almost 1,700 votes behind O'Riordan and is now flying along on some other gravy train.
 

west'sawake

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 15, 2008
Messages
3,592
I'm predicting that there will be a General Election next year and looking to see who you THINK will lose their seats, not who you WANT to lose their seat.

I'll start with a few predictions:

Dublin:

I think Fine Gaels Noel Rock will lose out to Fianna Fails Paul McAuliffe in Dublin North West:

I can see either Fine Gaels Catherine Byrne or PBP's Joan Collins loosing out to Fianna Fails Catherine Ardagh:

Labours Joan Burton will finally lose out to Sinn Feins Paul Donnelly in Dublin West:

Despite his promotion to high office I predict Finian McGrath will lose his Dublin Bay North seat but not sure who will take it.

Maureen O'Sullivan could lose out in Dublin Central if Fianna Fail can get a half decent Candidate.

Can Katherine Zappone hold on in Dublin South West?

I'm presently looking at seats outside Dublin and will throw up a few predictions later.


What are your thoughts or predictions folks?
I think FG will hold all their seats in Dublin and gain one or two as they continue to push for reductions in the USC but theyvcontinue to lose seats to FF and Indos in Rural Ireland, Waterford, Cork, Galway and Limerivk. PBP AAA will lose some seats if they don't revert to what they do best, bread and butter issues, such as the barely coping classes being screwed with stealth taxes, as in their victory over the water issue, instead of an obsession with abortion on demand. Labour to get back to 10 to 12 seats, Sinn Fein will gain two or three percent in the polls but it won't result in many extra seats and they might even lose the second seat in Louth.
 

gijoe

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2010
Messages
15,206
Dublin North of the river will get an extra seat in the review via Central going to 4 seats seems the most likely.
 

blokesbloke

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 13, 2011
Messages
22,697
I'm predicting that there will be a General Election next year and looking to see who you THINK will lose their seats, not who you WANT to lose their seat.

I'll start with a few predictions:

Dublin:

I think Fine Gaels Noel Rock will lose out to Fianna Fails Paul McAuliffe in Dublin North West:

I can see either Fine Gaels Catherine Byrne or PBP's Joan Collins loosing out to Fianna Fails Catherine Ardagh:

Labours Joan Burton will finally lose out to Sinn Feins Paul Donnelly in Dublin West:

Despite his promotion to high office I predict Finian McGrath will lose his Dublin Bay North seat but not sure who will take it.

Maureen O'Sullivan could lose out in Dublin Central if Fianna Fail can get a half decent Candidate.

Can Katherine Zappone hold on in Dublin South West?

I'm presently looking at seats outside Dublin and will throw up a few predictions later.


What are your thoughts or predictions folks?
Not if I have anything to do with it!

I shall start voodoo rituals immediately.
 

midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,835
I don't believe there will be an election in 2017, unless there is an arithmetical accident in the Dail, which is of course always possible. FF will do anything possible to avoid one - they do not want to be in power to oversee the catastrophe that Brexit will be for Ireland (unless the political class here wake up and stop taking orders from Brussels and Berlin). If there is one, FF will gain a few seats and probably end up as the largest party, FG will drop a few though not that many, SF will end up roughly the same, a few Indos will lose out and Labour will more or less disappear. So no point having an election!!
 

Fullforward

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
7,862
Not if I have anything to do with it!

I shall start voodoo rituals immediately.
It might take that, and a little bit more to save the Labour Queen :lol:
 

Catalpast

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
25,564
I'm predicting that there will be a General Election next year and looking to see who you THINK will lose their seats, not who you WANT to lose their seat.

I'll start with a few predictions:

Dublin:

I think Fine Gaels Noel Rock will lose out to Fianna Fails Paul McAuliffe in Dublin North West:

I can see either Fine Gaels Catherine Byrne or PBP's Joan Collins loosing out to Fianna Fails Catherine Ardagh:

Labours Joan Burton will finally lose out to Sinn Feins Paul Donnelly in Dublin West:

Despite his promotion to high office I predict Finian McGrath will lose his Dublin Bay North seat but not sure who will take it.

Maureen O'Sullivan could lose out in Dublin Central if Fianna Fail can get a half decent Candidate.

Can Katherine Zappone hold on in Dublin South West?

I'm presently looking at seats outside Dublin and will throw up a few predictions later.


What are your thoughts or predictions folks?
Labours Joan Burton will finally lose out to Sinn Feins Paul Donnelly in Dublin West:

Ah sure they said that the last time too!:cool:

Remember the guy who used to post here that was certain she would lose it and PD would take her saddle?

Where is he now?:p
 

Fullforward

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
7,862
I think FG will hold all their seats in Dublin and gain one or two as they continue to push for reductions in the USC but theyvcontinue to lose seats to FF and Indos in Rural Ireland, Waterford, Cork, Galway and Limerivk. PBP AAA will lose some seats if they don't revert to what they do best, bread and butter issues, such as the barely coping classes being screwed with stealth taxes, as in their victory over the water issue, instead of an obsession with abortion on demand. Labour to get back to 10 to 12 seats, Sinn Fein will gain two or three percent in the polls but it won't result in many extra seats and they might even lose the second seat in Louth.

I'd be surprised to see that given that they have over 19,500 1st preferences and 1.73 Quotas as opposed to Fine Gaels 13,200 1st preferences and 1.18 Quotas.And Fianna Fail are on almost the same numbers as FG.
 

The Field Marshal

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 27, 2009
Messages
43,645
You could be right about a GE in the ROI.
There certainly needs to be one in the UK to sort the Brexit farce.
 

Fullforward

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
7,862
Labours Joan Burton will finally lose out to Sinn Feins Paul Donnelly in Dublin West:

Ah sure they said that the last time too!:cool:

Remember the guy who used to post here that was certain she would lose it and PD would take her saddle?

Where is he now?:p
I remember him alright but I'm confident that it will happen this time (It might not be Donnelly as their Candidate). Labour dropped 50% of their vote in the area between 2011 and 2016 and their three candidates in the 2014 locals got around 1,700 between them across Castleknock and Mulhuddart electorial areas. Is Joan nearly 70 now?
 

gijoe

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2010
Messages
15,206
Labours Joan Burton will finally lose out to Sinn Feins Paul Donnelly in Dublin West:

Ah sure they said that the last time too!:cool:

Remember the guy who used to post here that was certain she would lose it and PD would take her saddle?

Where is he now?:p
Surely she is not running again though? Especially if the election takes place post boundary review as its likely that Central will get a 4th seat and a lot of her Navan Road vote from Dublin West.
 

Fullforward

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
7,862
Dublin North of the river will get an extra seat in the review via Central going to 4 seats seems the most likely.
Does that mean that the area around Swords that was moved into Fingal will be moved back to Blanchardstown / Castleknock to ensure they retain their 4 seats?
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top