General election Donegal North East

old westie

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With the selection convention for Donegal North East taking place next sunday, any views as to whether Fg will run a mate with Mc Hugh, in the slim hope of a second seat.
 


davehiggz

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No point in running a second candidate. This is one of the most predictable constituencies in the county.

Niall Blaney will be safe now that McDaid is gone. The FF vote here is too strong to be moved below 25%.

Joe McHugh did very well last time with 0.9 of a quota and Labour transfers will easily see him over the line this time.

Sinn Féin is doing very well now and so I think Padraig MacLochlainn will easily get in.

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
 

Collegebhoy

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No point in running a second candidate. This is one of the most predictable constituencies in the county.

Niall Blaney will be safe now that McDaid is gone. The FF vote here is too strong to be moved below 25%.

Joe McHugh did very well last time with 0.9 of a quota and Labour transfers will easily see him over the line this time.

Sinn Féin is doing very well now and so I think Padraig MacLochlainn will easily get in.

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
Spot on I think.
 

LgCastell

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any update here because the FG site is saying selection is pending
Obviously McHugh will be selected and if a second is to be added it'd be John Ryan in Innisowen ....

I cant see FG getting two here going on the bye election in the DSW FF held up enough to hold on to a seat so i suspect Blaney should be ok especially with McDaid gone ...

McHugh and MacLaochainn will be top two and then it should be Blaney
Lab still miles off and transfers should help the two above over the line ....
I cant see any indos breaking in especially as Harte is now running under Lab and he would have been the most likely to do this had he stayed indo ... he will add to the Lab FPV but still wont get in ...

SHould FG run another?

It is unlikely but many see Innisowen as a "constituency in its own right" and running a candidate based here could work out without damaging McHugh too much and I reckon it'd transfer to him on elimination ....

The problem here is that the contender in Innisowen is MacLaochlainn and he should increase his vote massively so the second FG would be well behind and even if he were to end up infront of SF ...transfer from SF to FG wouldnt be bankable .... i think it'd suit FG more if the FF candidate was based in Innisowen

Its a tricky one for FG if they run one they'll top the poll if they run two McHugh may get the 2nd following FG#2 elimination while SF would get the first after Harte is gone ...
 

old westie

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when is selection here?
Good points in previous post and possibly the likely outcome. FG now talking of convention 16th Jan. Division between Dublin and local org. re one or two on ticket,
I think they would be mad to run 2,as second would have to be from Innishowen and danger of him handing back transfers to Mc Hugh in large numbers is not likely.This is what happened in Elections before Mc Hugh's election,2 Fg candidates each on 4k votes one eliminated and transfers around 2k votes back which is no good. One FG candidate would end up with at least 7500 FP votes which is a strong basis for election.
Im not sure re Blaneys future, Mc Connellogue in Innishowen is highly talked of and seen as a possible contender, I think the main battle in DNE is within FF and the Labour party for 3rd seat.
 

QuizMaster

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I'd be surprised if Lab are in the running, even though their Jimmy Harte is a far superior candidate to Frank McBrearty.
Which FF? It's an intruiging question. Keaveney would not easily get through a convention. Maybe she'll announce her retirement.
McConalogue (FF) is certainly one to watch, but not this time. Inishowen is taken. By the shinners.
Who have the effers got in the Letterkenny area? That's their best hope, providing they have someone who scrubs up well.
 

old westie

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Breaking news in the Letterkenny area.
Donegal County councillor Ciaran Brogan FF to make major announcement mid week this week.
Its rumoured that he is leaving FF and going to run in General Election as an Independent.
It is also understood he has the full backing of the Dr. James Mc Daid organisation and the save Letterkenny General hospital grouping.
If this is the situation it will create a very interesting situation for the FF party in the large population basin of Letterkenny and could put into a spin plans of most candidates in the DNE.
 

culmore

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If Brogan goes and I think he will with Mcdaids backing he will win a seat, leaving blaney loosing out to Mchugh, McLaughlin and Brogan elected
 

politikie

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If Brogan goes and I think he will with Mcdaids backing he will win a seat, leaving blaney loosing out to Mchugh, McLaughlin and Brogan elected
Not a mission will Brogan get elected. He is utterly FF-associated and in a town like Letterkenny, where 2 out of every 3 workers are public sector, they are ready to put the boot into anyone who smacks even remotely of FF heritage. Blaney and Harte for last seat.
 

QuizMaster

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That leaves Letterkenny wide open to Harte (assuming politikie is right about the anti-Brogan sentiment).
Could DNE really return no FF? This is the place where FF held 3/3 not all that long ago.
 
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old westie

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Not a mission will Brogan get elected. He is utterly FF-associated and in a town like Letterkenny, where 2 out of every 3 workers are public sector, they are ready to put the boot into anyone who smacks even remotely of FF heritage. Blaney and Harte for last seat.
I think you may be on the money Politikie.
I feel large towns all over the country will blast FF as suggested by early post as these towns are public service dominated esp Letterkenny. Brogan is damaged goods but it will depend on what type of support and backing Mc Daid provides.
Last seat will be a dog fight if they run between ?Brogan, Mc Connellogue and Harte as I feel Blaney will be the main target of most anti Govt feeling and possibly will be eliminated quite early.
 

Madone

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Not a mission will Brogan get elected. He is utterly FF-associated and in a town like Letterkenny, where 2 out of every 3 workers are public sector, they are ready to put the boot into anyone who smacks even remotely of FF heritage. Blaney and Harte for last seat.
What if FG run John Ryan alongside Mc Hugh? They could get an Inishowen bounce with Ryan who is proving to be a breath of fresh air after years of in-fighting in the party. FG often polled high,up to 38%, in the good old days.Could they get 2 seats?
We are in uncharted waters!
 

culmore

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FG almost had two seats years ago in Harte and Loughrey, but Harte wanted to keep seat in family so shafted Loughrey, chance of two FG if Ryans goes in Inishowen alright
 

QuizMaster

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Don't write Blaney off. He's a poacher. He ignores all electoral strategy and goes everywhere, because he has people everywhere from the IFF days.
 

old westie

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FG almost had two seats years ago in Harte and Loughrey, but Harte wanted to keep seat in family so shafted Loughrey, chance of two FG if Ryans goes in Inishowen alright
Cany see it and i think the figures dont add up. If Ryan ran and got about 4k votes and Mc Hugh came in with another 4 or 4.5k votes thats 8500 fg votes in total..Normal transfer rate would be about 60% therefore 2400 of ryans votes would go back to Mc Hugh, this would leave Mc Hugh well short and in a major struggle to hold his seat.
Remember Mc Hugh had about 8500 last election FP votes.
Also the danger that Ryans votes will stay in Innishowen in large mumbers therefore a definate crisis for FG.
I think FG will play safe and run and hold one.
 

Madone

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Cany see it and i think the figures dont add up. If Ryan ran and got about 4k votes and Mc Hugh came in with another 4 or 4.5k votes thats 8500 fg votes in total..Normal transfer rate would be about 60% therefore 2400 of ryans votes would go back to Mc Hugh, this would leave Mc Hugh well short and in a major struggle to hold his seat.
Remember Mc Hugh had about 8500 last election FP votes.
Also the danger that Ryans votes will stay in Innishowen in large mumbers therefore a definate crisis for FG.
I think FG will play safe and run and hold one.
I dont agree.On a bad day there are over 10,000 fp votes going to FG.On a good day much more! Who else is going to take them? Do the sums.
FF are in free-fall,no matter which concoction emerges,so give them 8,000,or if generous say 10,000.
Granted SF will take 8,000+ but there are another 20,000 votes out there.Harte takes 4,000,many of which will transfer to FG.If Paddy Harte were in the present situation,all things considered, he would be looking at FG taking 40% of the fp vote and 2 seats.Go for it Fine Gael! Mc Hughs seat is safe.
There is nothing to fear but fear itself!
 

old westie

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I dont agree.On a bad day there are over 10,000 fp votes going to FG.On a good day much more! Who else is going to take them? Do the sums.
FF are in free-fall,no matter which concoction emerges,so give them 8,000,or if generous say 10,000.
Granted SF will take 8,000+ but there are another 20,000 votes out there.Harte takes 4,000,many of which will transfer to FG.If Paddy Harte were in the present situation,all things considered, he would be looking at FG taking 40% of the fp vote and 2 seats.Go for it Fine Gael! Mc Hughs seat is safe.
There is nothing to fear but fear itself!
I kind of wish you were right,but you cant quote P Harte because thats the past and as you say about fear well its not fear, look at what happened in DSW bye election,FG did not gain from the FF freefall. FG are seen as part of the establishment and the swing away from FF will not come to FG, it will spread to SF, Lab, and independents. These are facts as suggested in all polls. Also FG never had 10k FP votes over the last 15 yrs. Their best was 2007 with Mc Hugh top of poll with around 8k.
2002 they had 21% of vote
1997 they had 19% of vote
And going back 10 more years they were in freefall also.
 

Madone

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Don't mention 2002.That was the year the lunatics took over the asylum....giving the FF triumvirate over 66% of first preference.Instead look at results of 2009 Local elections to see what FG vote is now.
 


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