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General election, Mayo


Tomas Mor

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Feb 22, 2010
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The prospects for outcome of general election in Mayo is fascinating. This is home of FG leader and he will be hoping to keep three seats here. Talk of a fourth is media rubbish. Kenny, Ring and Calleary are certainties, though the latter will have to deliver something for his native Ballina and North Mayo, seeing that he is a jnr. minister. Michelle Mulherin may put in a good effort for FG again, but she needs to get a team around her. After that it is all up in the air. John O Mahony should hold on, but Mayo football may need to improve and he will face a comeback attempt by quiet man John Carty, but with the tide against FF that may be difficult. I dont think FF will run a fourth. Neither do I think will Dr. Cowley try a comeback.

Castlbar is the really fascinating place. Will Bev Cooper Flynn hold on. She will be under pressure. Michael Kilcoyne formerly of labour, now Independent is doing well and would give it a good run. Rumour has it also that SF will run three this time instead of one. They have good women candidates in Rose Walsh, Belmullet, and she is wise enough to distance herself from Shell to Sea antics, and Therese Ruane, Castlebar, whose sister is a minister in NI executive,and of course Gerry Murray who ran last time.
My predictions are Kenny, Ring, O'Mahoney FG; Calleary FF;and either Kilcoyne or one of the SF candidates.
 

Tomas Mor

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Feb 22, 2010
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I have not mentioned the PD left overs,or Greens. I think both garnered about 300 votes between them in 2007
 

locke

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There's more chance of a 4th FG than a Sinn Fein seat.

I can't see it being anything other than FG3 FF2 or FG4 FF1, unless FG ditch Enda as leader.

Last time out, the assorted others only just scraped over 10% of the vote and that was with a sitting Independent TD.
 

Tomas Mor

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There's more chance of a 4th FG than a Sinn Fein seat.

I can't see it being anything other than FG3 FF2 or FG4 FF1, unless FG ditch Enda as leader.

Last time out, the assorted others only just scraped over 10% of the vote and that was with a sitting Independent TD.
But with SF running 3 well placed candidates will make a difference. And Kilcoyne is strong. No chance of 4th. FG seat, unless there was perfect management, and with Michael Ring going all over the place, and he sends out thousands of letters to every other candidate's area a day or two before election, no hope of 4th. Just fantasy.
 

locke

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If those SF candidates don't transfer, it could put them in a worse place. Sometimes running loads of candidates works (PDs in Galway West), but more often than not, it leaks votes from the party because the strongest candidate isn't known outside their home area.

I doubt FG will get 4. Considering the leadership factor, it's hard to see them getting a higher percentage than last time. However, they are only a couple of points away from the required percentage. Then comes the problem of managing Enda's vote and getting Ring to accept vote management at all.
 
Joined
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Mayo is no change............given FF fight last time with Bev then next time it will be under one banner.

FG need 10% to gain 4 out of 5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NO CHANCE
 

locke

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If they split their vote perfectly, they could get it with only a few percent more. But I wouldn't like to be the person telling Michael Ring to give up votes.
 

Tomas Mor

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If those SF candidates don't transfer, it could put them in a worse place. Sometimes running loads of candidates works (PDs in Galway West), but more often than not, it leaks votes from the party because the strongest candidate isn't known outside their home area.

I doubt FG will get 4. Considering the leadership factor, it's hard to see them getting a higher percentage than last time. However, they are only a couple of points away from the required percentage. Then comes the problem of managing Enda's vote and getting Ring to accept vote management at all.
I agree re several candidates it can work both ways. It worked for PDs in Galway, for FG in Galway East and Clare. But it can backfire too. And dont rule out Kilcoyne, either way Cooper Flynn is a gonner I think. If FF had put forward Dennis Gallagher last time he was sure of a seat in Castlebar and he would hold it with the Achill/Erris connection.
 

neiphin

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Aug 23, 2009
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Mayo is no change............given FF fight last time with Bev then next time it will be under one banner.

FG need 10% to gain 4 out of 5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NO CHANCE
bev shot herself with the women of mayo
with the breast cancer thing
 

Tomas Mor

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Ecoguy

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Mar 12, 2009
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393
Rose kept well away from them before the council election. She will speak now when it suits, but wait for next election. She saw what Dr. Cowley got for his Shell to Sea antics- out on his head:).
She knew Williams/Greig was trying to smear both her and Shell to Sea with the IRA tag and she was smart enough not to appear on his work of fiction which was well and truely shown up on the VB show recently

Maybe your not aware of SF's official policy on the matter:rolleyes:
 

west'sawake

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Sep 15, 2008
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3,650
The prospects for outcome of general election in Mayo is fascinating. This is home of FG leader and he will be hoping to keep three seats here. Talk of a fourth is media rubbish. Kenny, Ring and Calleary are certainties, though the latter will have to deliver something for his native Ballina and North Mayo, seeing that he is a jnr. minister. Michelle Mulherin may put in a good effort for FG again, but she needs to get a team around her. After that it is all up in the air. John O Mahony should hold on, but Mayo football may need to improve and he will face a comeback attempt by quiet man John Carty, but with the tide against FF that may be difficult. I dont think FF will run a fourth. Neither do I think will Dr. Cowley try a comeback.

Castlbar is the really fascinating place. Will Bev Cooper Flynn hold on. She will be under pressure. Michael Kilcoyne formerly of labour, now Independent is doing well and would give it a good run. Rumour has it also that SF will run three this time instead of one. They have good women candidates in Rose Walsh, Belmullet, and she is wise enough to distance herself from Shell to Sea antics, and Therese Ruane, Castlebar, whose sister is a minister in NI executive,and of course Gerry Murray who ran last time.
My predictions are Kenny, Ring, O'Mahoney FG; Calleary FF;and either Kilcoyne or one of the SF candidates.

Actually if Ballina and North Mayo had a strong FG candidate, with good vote management they could take four out of five. If each of their candidates hit 13%-14% Last time FG had almos 54% of the first preference vote, Kenny polled 20.6%, Ring 16%, O Mahoney 9.6%, and Mulherin 7.6%. Surely a swing of 3% is possible along with brilliant vote management, but oh dear the egoes, the egoes.

While Mulherin is a decent woman and a good solicitor I was very put off by her impressionable populism wanting to give the freedom of Ballina to Liam Gallagher of Oasis, and pushing for a new pedestrian bridge to be named after Mary Robinson. For the first time I thought she lacked substance.

Fact is Kenny and Ring will be quota hoggers, besides Fine Gael lacks the ruthlessness to make this happen. Mulherin the last time was stabbed in the back by one of her own Ballina Councillors who didn't vote for her to be Mayor which would have increased her profile before the 2007 election. Bottom line I don't think F.G. will do it with her and Calleary will increase his vote if they haven't a stronger high profile candidate.
 

ergo2

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Oct 4, 2008
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14,251
Believe that it will be 3 FG 1 FF ( Calleary ) plus either Flynn or Kilcoyne.

Michelle Mulherin is a good candidate, but she was hemmed in by party managers last time - i.e. John O'mahony let canvass parts of Swinford area which normally were allocated to the Ballina candidate.

Ballina likely to vote for Calleary and Mulherin. Voting the party slate going out of fashion. They lost out before by supporting COwley and losing Moffat. Even if Calleary does not get to be a full Minister before the election he is obviously in favour so Ballina won't want to lose this advantage.

Do not think SF will win a seat even running three candidates. Geographical rather than party considerations becoming more important in transfers, and the three SF candidates are widely separated. Their hardcore party vote may not be enough.

I know this worked for the PD's in Galway, but it was masterminded by Bobby Molloy one of the best political strategists of his time, and against a weak FG team there..

However early days yet - I think.
 

Rocky

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Dec 9, 2004
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If they split their vote perfectly, they could get it with only a few percent more. But I wouldn't like to be the person telling Michael Ring to give up votes.
They would. Both Kenny and Ring got elected very very comfortably last time. Kenny was nearly 3,000 votes above the Quota and Ring just 500 below it and even if they got that vote again or slightly better and just split it better they could take 4. However it would be immensely difficult to do and they do need something along the lines of what SF did in West Belfast in the last assembly election.
 

atlantic

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Jan 25, 2008
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649
Not far off the mark,Bev will find it tough with the screaming benevolent socialist Kilcoyne.Mulherin could give Calleary a bit of a fright.

The prospects for outcome of general election in Mayo is fascinating. This is home of FG leader and he will be hoping to keep three seats here. Talk of a fourth is media rubbish. Kenny, Ring and Calleary are certainties, though the latter will have to deliver something for his native Ballina and North Mayo, seeing that he is a jnr. minister. Michelle Mulherin may put in a good effort for FG again, but she needs to get a team around her. After that it is all up in the air. John O Mahony should hold on, but Mayo football may need to improve and he will face a comeback attempt by quiet man John Carty, but with the tide against FF that may be difficult. I dont think FF will run a fourth. Neither do I think will Dr. Cowley try a comeback.

Castlbar is the really fascinating place. Will Bev Cooper Flynn hold on. She will be under pressure. Michael Kilcoyne formerly of labour, now Independent is doing well and would give it a good run. Rumour has it also that SF will run three this time instead of one. They have good women candidates in Rose Walsh, Belmullet, and she is wise enough to distance herself from Shell to Sea antics, and Therese Ruane, Castlebar, whose sister is a minister in NI executive,and of course Gerry Murray who ran last time.
My predictions are Kenny, Ring, O'Mahoney FG; Calleary FF;and either Kilcoyne or one of the SF candidates.
 

Tomas Mor

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Feb 22, 2010
Messages
10,389
Look like Calleary wont get top table today despite his excellent pr spinners in local and national media, who have described him as future taoiseach material even !. Where has he hidden his talents. When Biffo goes Calleary will be gone too, as many in FF wonder where he came from. And the people of Ballina and North Mayo are wondering too where this awful talented guy is.
 

Barbarian

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Joined
Jan 13, 2004
Messages
156
Since the local elections I have thought that Beverley is a near certainty to lose her seat. Castlebar will be a dogfight, Kenny will take a lion’s share of the vote, then Kilcoyne will take a hefty vote out of the town (but maybe not enough in the rural to win a seat) Beverley might find it hard to make up the running outside Castlebar with such a large chunk of her base evaporated. Will Frank Durcan run?…the locals will have done no harm to his confidence!It would not be at all surprising to see Castlebar with only one sitting TD. I don’t think O’Mahoney will be so strong next time around and there might be room for John Carty or another to make a comeback for FF in the east.
 

retep

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May 25, 2007
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Think the call for 3 FG, 1 FF is about right. Big questions about the last seat. Definately Bev has a royal fight on her hands and whilst she has her loyal support still within the county she is equally despised by many especially for her stance on the Cancer unit in MGH. Not sure about Kilcoynes prospects, if he were to throw his hand in with Labour as their candidate it might improve his prospects (Of course it might not either!) and so Labour are likely to stick with Barrett and then there's the time bomb of Frank Durcan who could well yet decide to throw his hat into the ring also. As for Carty and Cowley I wouldn't rate their chances of a return for either. If FF can come up with a strong 3rd candidate they might just pull either themselves or Bev through for a 2nd FF seat but the latent bitterness remaining about the Bev affair makes that unlikely.

If Calleary does poll well in Ballina it could also mean a boost for Mulhern but I can't see her making it without some major concessions from Ring, Mahony and Calleary which I can't really see happening.

I don't think the SF factor is still strong enough to get them a seat even with candidates as strong as Murray, Ruane and Conway but their geographic locations could certainly help up the SF vote in the county considerably.

As for any other possible wild cards I can't see anyone else, even a celebrity candidate making any major inroads against the Kenny for Taoiseach. Mahony for Sam, Ring for Funerals bandwagon
 
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