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George Lee's Negativity


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Jun 29, 2006
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On the RTÉ news this evening, economists from NCB insisting that the economy is still strong, but George Lee is not convinced.

Despite the optimistic tone, he ends the report with a "well we'll see" approach - more of his willing on an economic collapse.

What a nasty, negative little man.
 

The Analyser

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dubsthcentralboy said:
On the RTÉ news this evening, economists from NCB insisting that the economy is still strong, but George Lee is not convinced.

Despite the optimistic tone, he ends the report with a "well we'll see" approach - more of his willing on an economic collapse.

What a nasty, negative little man.
Oh dear. Fianna Fáil is annoyed. :cry: They don't like when there are people in the media are off-message, or at least off the FF message. :lol:
 

Johnny

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dubsthcentralboy said:
What a nasty, negative little man.
Why don't you refute his analysis with sound economic argument? Insulting his charcater is too easy.
 
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Johnny said:
dubsthcentralboy said:
What a nasty, negative little man.
Why don't you refute his analysis with sound economic argument? Insulting his charcater is too easy.
There was quite enough refutation of his bile by REAL economists on the news tonight. I'm not an expert, but, unlike Mr Lee, happy to submit to those who are...
 

MINISTER

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The Analyser said:
dubsthcentralboy said:
On the RTÉ news this evening, economists from NCB insisting that the economy is still strong, but George Lee is not convinced.

Despite the optimistic tone, he ends the report with a "well we'll see" approach - more of his willing on an economic collapse.

What a nasty, negative little man.
Oh dear. Fianna Fáil is annoyed. :cry: They don't like when there are people in the media are off-message, or at least off the FF message. :lol:
Well put Mr. A! George Lee is the only journo in RTE who doesn't toe the party line much to the chagrin of the " oh come on"'s of Miriam O'C and Sean O'Rourke.
 

KingKane

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MINISTER said:
The Analyser said:
dubsthcentralboy said:
On the RTÉ news this evening, economists from NCB insisting that the economy is still strong, but George Lee is not convinced.

Despite the optimistic tone, he ends the report with a "well we'll see" approach - more of his willing on an economic collapse.

What a nasty, negative little man.
Oh dear. Fianna Fáil is annoyed. :cry: They don't like when there are people in the media are off-message, or at least off the FF message. :lol:
Well put Mr. A! George Lee is the only journo in RTE who doesn't toe the party line much to the chagrin of the " oh come on"'s of Miriam O'C and Sean O'Rourke.
George Lee was the first person to see individualisation for the issue it would and also has been largely positive for FF budgets down the years but sure you prefer to forget all of that.
 

rockofcashel

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what DCB doesn't seem to understand, is that economists from NCB or Jim Power of Friends First, or Dan the Man from the BOI, have a very serious vested interest in talking up the economy.

Their jobs, and their performance bonuses are the first to go, the minute the economy goes belly up.

George Lee doesn't have to worry about this as much, as he will be paid his salary by RTE for commenting on the downside as well as the upside.

It was also noteworthy to listen to Moore Mc Dowell talk with Tom Mc Guirk this morning on radio one. When Mc Guirk commented on the 5.1% inflation figures, he asked Mc Dowell was this a "blip" or a "slide".

Without a seconds hesitation, Mc Dowell said it was a slide. And then went on to explain why. He also commented on the probability of politicians from FF beginning to use the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices as the measure of inflation, because that only showed a 2.9% inflation figure as opposed to the 5.1% given out by the CSO, which is on the Irish Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Lo and behold, by lunchtime, Biffo was on the News at One, insisting that we talk about the HICP rather than the CPI. Lies, damn lies and statistics.

I see there is also a programme on RTE on Monday night discussing the possibility (probability) of an impending housing price crash. Are FF trying to frighten people into voting for them, or as someone commented to me while canvassing tonight, are they trying to actually lose this election?

The way the dollar is sliding, and the way Sterling is expected to slide by the Autumn (currently Sterling is over-priced, due to the British Treasury pegging its value to an ever increasing Euro) is creating even more problems. This is currently crippling the Irish export market.

Finally, because the Euro is rising in value, this is driving internal EU inflation, of which the only way of controlling the money supply, is another few hikes in interest rates. Expect to see, as other economic threads have predicted a 5% interest rate either late this year or early next year. And that is just the ECB base rate.

By the time the Irish banks add on their margins (1% for trackers, 1-1.5% for variable rate mortgages), then many Irish householders are likely to be paying between 6-6.5% interest rates by the middle of next year. Or, close to double the rate that they would have been paying if they bought their houses in the past 5-10 years.

No wonder George Lee is gloomy. The final thing Mc Dowell said on Mc Guirks show, was that the main parties, which spent the last month promising tax cuts at their Ard Fheiseanna and National conferences, were living in cloud cuckoo land if they thought that they could deliver these cuts over the next period of Government.

The cuts were predicated on the economy growing year on year by 5% and he said this simply wasn't going to happen, so that whatever party does end up in Government, they have left themselves a hostage to fortune on the issue of tax cuts, which will no doubt be exploited at every single budget for the next five years.

But then again, I'm a Shinner, what do I know about economics.

Best take the DCB and FF attitude. We've never had it so good lads, spend , spend, spend
 

Maximus

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George Lee is as anti-FF as they come, there was talk of him running for Fine Gael in Dún Laoghaire in 2002.
 
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rockofcashel said:
what DCB doesn't seem to understand, is that economists from NCB or Jim Power of Friends First, or Dan the Man from the BOI, have a very serious vested interest in talking up the economy.

Their jobs, and their performance bonuses are the first to go, the minute the economy goes belly up.

George Lee doesn't have to worry about this as much, as he will be paid his salary by RTE for commenting on the downside as well as the upside.

It was also noteworthy to listen to Moore Mc Dowell talk with Tom Mc Guirk this morning on radio one. When Mc Guirk commented on the 5.1% inflation figures, he asked Mc Dowell was this a "blip" or a "slide".

Without a seconds hesitation, Mc Dowell said it was a slide. And then went on to explain why. He also commented on the probability of politicians from FF beginning to use the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices as the measure of inflation, because that only showed a 2.9% inflation figure as opposed to the 5.1% given out by the CSO, which is on the Irish Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Lo and behold, by lunchtime, Biffo was on the News at One, insisting that we talk about the HICP rather than the CPI. Lies, damn lies and statistics.

I see there is also a programme on RTE on Monday night discussing the possibility (probability) of an impending housing price crash. Are FF trying to frighten people into voting for them, or as someone commented to me while canvassing tonight, are they trying to actually lose this election?

The way the dollar is sliding, and the way Sterling is expected to slide by the Autumn (currently Sterling is over-priced, due to the British Treasury pegging its value to an ever increasing Euro) is creating even more problems. This is currently crippling the Irish export market.

Finally, because the Euro is rising in value, this is driving internal EU inflation, of which the only way of controlling the money supply, is another few hikes in interest rates. Expect to see, as other economic threads have predicted a 5% interest rate either late this year or early next year. And that is just the ECB base rate.

By the time the Irish banks add on their margins (1% for trackers, 1-1.5% for variable rate mortgages), then many Irish householders are likely to be paying between 6-6.5% interest rates by the middle of next year. Or, close to double the rate that they would have been paying if they bought their houses in the past 5-10 years.

No wonder George Lee is gloomy. The final thing Mc Dowell said on Mc Guirks show, was that the main parties, which spent the last month promising tax cuts at their Ard Fheiseanna and National conferences, were living in cloud cuckoo land if they thought that they could deliver these cuts over the next period of Government.

The cuts were predicated on the economy growing year on year by 5% and he said this simply wasn't going to happen, so that whatever party does end up in Government, they have left themselves a hostage to fortune on the issue of tax cuts, which will no doubt be exploited at every single budget for the next five years.

But then again, I'm a Shinner, what do I know about economics.

Best take the DCB and FF attitude. We've never had it so good lads, spend , spend, spend
yawn - for all the people hoping that the economy will collapse - get over it! We've had enough of your inferiority complex.
 

factual

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rockofcashel said:
Finally, because the Euro is rising in value, this is driving internal EU inflation, of which the only way of controlling the money supply, is another few hikes in interest rates. Expect to see, as other economic threads have predicted a 5% interest rate either late this year or early next year. And that is just the ECB base rate.
True, it doesn't look good and we have no easy way out of the coming downturn.

Sinn Fein was the only major party to argue that we should retain control over Irish interest rates to give Ireland the necessary counter cyclical control over the macroeconomy. One way of implementing this would be an independent Irish central bank with an inflation target for Irish inflation (not EU inflation).

Sadly the electorate did not listen to Sinn Fein's arguments on this; the only major party to have been proved right on all of this.
 

grassroots

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I think you should consider the following

*sterling is not pegged to the Euro & not by the British treasury. rather it is freely floating. Its strength owes much to a robust economy which is going to get a fillup as the pre Olympics construction boom starts.
*a risng euro is testimony to the buoyant euozone economy-especially Germany-rising internal euro inflation owes much to the strengthening economy in the currency zone. Arguably, it is coming under control and the ECB may level off at well below 5%
*a rising currency controls imported inflation not as you imply stokes it
*if the Irish economy slows to a normal growth level say 3-4%-you are correct that tax cutting to the extent promised by all political parties except your own will not be possible. However, you will not have the resources for some of your pet projects and the tax hikes that you envisage will slow the economy further.
*Irish inflation is above the EU average on both measures. It reflects a deterioration in competitiveness due largely to stealth taxes and public utility increases, whic would be exacerbated if there was a flood of public service pay claims.

All economists have agendas and biases. I think its best to look at the predictive track record. The NCB boys and Dan called the Celtic Tiger early (a pharase not coined by D McWilliams by the way). George Lee has predicted 9 of the last zero recessions. He might be right but then Chicken Licken could have been right too. Moore is a pessimist and a blueshirt at that.
 

The Analyser

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dubsthcentralboy said:
yawn - for all the people hoping that the economy will collapse - get over it! We've had enough of your inferiority complex.
In other words
Everything is just grand.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
 

Maximus

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factual said:
rockofcashel said:
Finally, because the Euro is rising in value, this is driving internal EU inflation, of which the only way of controlling the money supply, is another few hikes in interest rates. Expect to see, as other economic threads have predicted a 5% interest rate either late this year or early next year. And that is just the ECB base rate.
True, it doesn't look good and we have no easy way out of the coming downturn.

Sinn Fein was the only major party to argue that we should retain control over Irish interest rates to give Ireland the necessary counter cyclical control over the macroeconomy. One way of implementing this would be an independent Irish central bank with an inflation target for Irish inflation (not EU inflation).

Sadly the electorate did not listen to Sinn Fein's arguments on this; the only major party to have been proved right on all of this.
Sorry but you are wrong factual.

If Ireland hadn't entered the third stage of EMU in 1998 Irish interest rates would have run at 5% to 6% over the period. EMU, the stability & growth pact and low interest rates were one of the corner stones in the continued development of the celtic tiger.

Sinn Féin's regressive economic policies are a throw back to the 1930s... are you really proposing Ireland should ditch the EURO?
 

grassroots

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Sinn Fein was the only major party to argue that we should retain control over Irish interest rates to give Ireland the necessary counter cyclical control over the macroeconomy. One way of implementing this would be an independent Irish central bank with an inflation target for Irish inflation (not EU inflation).

You do have a point there, although growth in the post 2000 period would have been far slower and the currency much higher on a trade weighted basis as we the CB would have run a much tighter policy.
 

rockofcashel

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The Analyser said:
dubsthcentralboy said:
yawn - for all the people hoping that the economy will collapse - get over it! We've had enough of your inferiority complex.
In other words
Everything is just grand.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
t'would break your heart to think, that this guy actually has a vote
 

Coles

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Typical dubsthcentralfool... start a topic and then contribute nothing to it... :roll:
 

rockofcashel

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He's unable too. His economic ability stretches to.. Bertie says it'll be ok, I believe him
 
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To clarify, DSB, there was only ONE economist cited in tonights report, not economists.

His arguement was that everything would be grand and dandy for another 15 years or so with the population growing and all that.

What a load of bullshit. With leads and lags in economic data we are still unsure of how things really are at the moment. Has the property market fallen off a cliff? Will the tax take remain strong? We should know by the Autunm.

As for this 15 years lark, they say a week is a long time in politics, well 15 years is a different universe in economics.

And for the record, the economist came from NCB. And who was it that wrote a company cheque in 1994 as a gift/loan/sundry expenses/slush fund take-out to one Minister for Finance Mr B Ahern...NCB.
 

FakeViking

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grassroots said:
...we should retain control over Irish interest rates...
If you had a choice of:

a) an Irish political incompetent sleeven like McCreevey making decisions about whose votes to buy in the next election with no view to the long term future of the island (let's Decrease VAT rates. Next budget, let's Increase VAT rates, just one small example of his uselessness, how many World Class Childrens Hospitals could we have had if the whole SSIA vote buying scam wasn't dreamed up)

or

b) faceless bureaucrats in Brussels not looking at who might gain from the short term economic changes but who can analyse the Europe-wide factors that affect the entire EU

Which would you choose?
 

factual

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FakeViking said:
grassroots said:
...we should retain control over Irish interest rates...
If you had a choice of:

a) an Irish political incompetent sleeven like McCreevey making decisions about whose votes to buy in the next election with no view to the long term future of the island (let's Decrease VAT rates. Next budget, let's Increase VAT rates, just one small example of his uselessness, how many World Class Childrens Hospitals could we have had if the whole SSIA vote buying scam wasn't dreamed up)

or

b) faceless bureaucrats in Brussels not looking at who might gain from the short term economic changes but who can analyse the Europe-wide factors that affect the entire EU

Which would you choose?
This is not the choice of course. We can have an independent central bank in Dublin setting interest rates relevant for Ireland's inflation rate, with an inflation target. This arrangement works well in other small countries.
 
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