'Ghost Estate' Report due out this morning

bobbysands81

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Should make for interesting reading - anyone know when it's available to the public?
 


realistic1

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Should make for interesting reading - anyone know when it's available to the public?
No doubt that they will suggest knocking most of these estates so FF/FG/ Labour landlords will have no problem renting their properties to social welfare individuals and the State picking up the tab.
 

Migrant Dub

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bobbysands81

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Apparently Dublin has less than 10,588 units that are built and empty OR that have started to be built but building has ceased (and are obviously) empty.

That's an overhang of less than a year. With no building activity going on at the mo we could easily have a shortage of units for sale in the coming years. If the economy picks up we could easily see quite substantial house price increases in the medium term.
 

redhead101

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Wow, just looking for this report and there is a large amount of propaganda from the government parties about this. Haven't read all of it, got sick reading it! still looking for the report.

Ministers Finneran and Cuffe publish National Housing Development Survey « MerrionStreet.ie Irish Government News Service
Cuffe will examine options on unfinished estates once survey is complete / Latest news / News / Home - Green Party / Comhaontas Glas

Due on environ.ie about now I think
 

oceanclub

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Apparently Dublin has less than 10,588 units that are built and empty
I call absolute ************************************************ on this one. Unless they're excluding apartments.

P.
 

seabhcan

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Apparently Dublin has less than 10,588 units that are built and empty OR that have started to be built but building has ceased (and are obviously) empty.

That's an overhang of less than a year. With no building activity going on at the mo we could easily have a shortage of units for sale in the coming years. If the economy picks up we could easily see quite substantial house price increases in the medium term.
Dublin residential building was never the big problem. The problem was the vast quantities of commercial space and residential outside of dublin.
 

bobbysands81

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I call absolute ************************************************ on this one. Unless they're excluding apartments.

P.
Just after going through the figures again and this time I've included ALL of the following categories of empty units (last time I left out units that were still actively under construction):

Complete & vacant
Near Complete - no building activity
Near Complete - with activity
Wall Plate - no building activity
Wall Plate - with building activity
DPC complete - no building activity
DPC Complete - with activity
Founds to DPC level - no activity
Founds to DPC level - with activity

and there are 11,998 units in Dublin that fit into those categories above.

The only categories I left out were "Complete and occupied" and "No construction started".

That is nowhere near as much as people believe there is.
 

Fir Bolg

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Apparently Dublin has less than 10,588 units that are built and empty OR that have started to be built but building has ceased (and are obviously) empty.

That's an overhang of less than a year. With no building activity going on at the mo we could easily have a shortage of units for sale in the coming years. If the economy picks up we could easily see quite substantial house price increases in the medium term.
No chance of that happening anytime soon.
 

Nerdfest

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According the word doc above, 42% of the dwellings surveyed in Dublin as a whole (by adding up the various broken down bits) are occupied leaving 58% unoccupied and finished or at some stage of unfinished-ness.

That sounds kinda mad to me.
 

bobbysands81

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Dublin residential building was never the big problem. The problem was the vast quantities of commercial space and residential outside of dublin.
Agreed - I'm just posing the question that prices could easily rise sharply in the medium term as there is a lot of pent up demand and nothing is currently being built and buying a house is now probably cheaper than renting.

However, with unemployment so high and the fear that folks have of losing their jobs and paying FAR higher taxes and interest rates folks mightn't be too willing to delve into the market until such a time as out economy improves... and that could take quite a few years.
 

inthemire

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Apparently Dublin has less than 10,588 units that are built and empty OR that have started to be built but building has ceased (and are obviously) empty.

That's an overhang of less than a year. With no building activity going on at the mo we could easily have a shortage of units for sale in the coming years. If the economy picks up we could easily see quite substantial house price increases in the medium term.
:confused::confused:

Lower salaries
Higher unemployment
Lower bank lending to purchasers
Multiplier reductions on peoples salaries to calculate affordability on mortgages
Lower exposure to property risk by banks
4 Years of austerity budgets starting next month
Anglo Irish banks
the likelihood of a second bank recapitalisation
The gap in Asking prices of houses and Rental values (whcih are still falling btw)

House price increase?

Eh I don't think so.

Housing prices in Ireland = Japan.

Konichi-wa.
 

bobbysands81

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According the word doc above, 42% of the dwellings surveyed in Dublin as a whole (by adding up the various broken down bits) are occupied leaving 58% unoccupied and finished or at some stage of unfinished-ness.

That sounds kinda mad to me.
Not necessarily as you need to take away the amount of units where planning permission has been granted but no building has taken place yet...

So for a complete picture of Dublin there are...

50,360 units in 'ghost' estates of which a total of...

17,152 units have planning permission but NO building has commenced.

11,998 range from building having been started on them to being completed yet lying empty;

and 21,240 are Complete and occupied.
 

Clanrickard

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:confused::confused:

Lower salaries
Higher unemployment
Lower bank lending to purchasers
Multiplier reductions on peoples salaries to calculate affordability on mortgages
Lower exposure to property risk by banks
4 Years of austerity budgets starting next month
Anglo Irish banks
the likelihood of a second bank recapitalisation
The gap in Asking prices of houses and Rental values (whcih are still falling btw)

House price increase?

Eh I don't think so.

Housing prices in Ireland = Japan.

Konichi-wa.
Can you read? Read bobby's post again.
 

inthemire

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Agreed - I'm just posing the question that prices could easily rise sharply in the medium term as there is a lot of pent up demand and nothing is currently being built and buying a house is now probably cheaper than renting.However, with unemployment so high and the fear that folks have of losing their jobs and paying FAR higher taxes and interest rates folks mightn't be too willing to delve into the market until such a time as out economy improves... and that could take quite a few years.
I'm not picking on you here, honestly!!! But really......!!!

compare these figures ok!!

4 Bed Semi D House in Rathfarnham - nice quiet area - to RENT
11 Whitecliff, Rathfarnham, Dublin 14 | Semi-Detached Houses To Let in Rathfarnham, Dublin 14 - MyHome.ie Lettings

Asking 1,500 per month - x 12 18,000 per annum
12 years = 216,000 Low to normal rental value
15 years = 270,000 Normal to high rental value
20 years = 360,000 High to ludicrous rental value

Asking price of 4 Bed Semi D in SAME ESTATE - SAME HOUSE - FOR SALE

77 Whitecliff, Rathfarnham, Dublin 16 | Detached House For Sale in Rathfarnham, Dublin 14 - MyHome.ie Residential

525,000 Euro

Difference of 165,000 between asking price for Sale and the HIGHEST rental cost (which is internationally regarded as ludicrous by the way - most countries value property at between 12 and 16 times the annual rent - except in Ireland!)

Sorry, we're WAY WAY WAY WAY off the bottom of the housing market here!!
 

alonso

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eh have ye all forgotten, bobbysands especially, that this report refers ONLY to Ghost estates??? It bears no relation whatsoever to VACANCY and how many vacant units we have in this country. These are brand new housing units at various stages in the construction process.

When you add in yer normal vacancy the figures of 300,000 etc pop up. 12,000 housing units in ghost estates in Dublin is a fcking staggering figure - that's enough to house most Irish large towns. there are 357 Ghost Estates in Dublin...

that is chillingly high
 

inthemire

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Can you read? Read bobby's post again.
I can. Can you draw inferences?

I thought the reasons I'd put at the top would have been somewhat self explantory why there WONT be an upturn in the economy in the coming 3 to 4years.

However, for the simpler among us, I'll list them again if that is what is required.:roll:
 

bobbysands81

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eh have ye all forgotten, bobbysands especially, that this report refers ONLY to Ghost estates??? It bears no relation whatsoever to VACANCY and how many vacant units we have in this country. These are brand new housing units at various stages in the construction process.
Fair point... but why are the Govt finding it so hard to procure units from landlords for Long Term Leasing? If we have soooo many vacant units then why aren't landlords queueing up to allow their units be leased into Social Housing? It just doesn't make any sense to me.

@inthemire - I'm open minded coming to this pal so if I'm wrong then please point it out!
 

Squire Allworthy

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Dublin residential building was never the big problem. The problem was the vast quantities of commercial space and residential outside of dublin.

+1

I have repeated over and over that it all depends on local demand and local availability. In some areas the demand will outstrip supply a lot sooner than many realise. With current economic malaise that should not result in a sudden jump in value, but give it time.
 


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