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Gilmore for Taoiseach: Any reality to it?


Congalltee

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Nov 10, 2009
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This is something which would have been dismissed out of hand a few months ago. However, as 1929 changed politics forever, could the post Lehmans world provide an opportunity to Labour.

If they run enough candidates, they could theoreticaly emerge as a the largest party, therefore RTE will have to include them in the Leaders Debate - as seen from Nick Clegg's participation in the UK debate, it can make a difference.

By picking up well-known has-beens,the chances of Labour gaining seats in Mayo, Poscommon and Longford - of all places, has increased. There gains would be deemed impossible months ago, but now on a good day with the wind behind them, are maybes. It all depends on Fianna Fail and how bad their collapse will be. But all but the true ff belivers ie morons, think that they will do well enough to lead a government again in the next 7 years.

So in the post-Nama Republic - is the future Labour?
 

GDPR

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Taoiseach is a real position, so yes, there is some reality to it.
 

escoline

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This is something which would have been dismissed out of hand a few months ago. However, as 1929 changed politics forever, could the post Lehmans world provide an opportunity to Labour.

If they run enough candidates, they could theoreticaly emerge as a the largest party, therefore RTE will have to include them in the Leaders Debate - as seen from Nick Clegg's participation in the UK debate, it can make a difference.

By picking up well-known has-beens,the chances of Labour gaining seats in Mayo, Poscommon and Longford - of all places, has increased. There gains would be deemed impossible months ago, but now on a good day with the wind behind them, are maybes. It all depends on Fianna Fail and how bad their collapse will be. But all but the true ff belivers ie morons, think that they will do well enough to lead a government again in the next 7 years.

So in the post-Nama Republic - is the future Labour?

You are starting to sound like Brendan Corish.

Will the eventual outcome be any better ?
 

dotski_w_

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This is something which would have been dismissed out of hand a few months ago. However, as 1929 changed politics forever, could the post Lehmans world provide an opportunity to Labour.

If they run enough candidates, they could theoreticaly emerge as a the largest party, therefore RTE will have to include them in the Leaders Debate - as seen from Nick Clegg's participation in the UK debate, it can make a difference.

By picking up well-known has-beens,the chances of Labour gaining seats in Mayo, Poscommon and Longford - of all places, has increased. There gains would be deemed impossible months ago, but now on a good day with the wind behind them, are maybes. It all depends on Fianna Fail and how bad their collapse will be. But all but the true ff belivers ie morons, think that they will do well enough to lead a government again in the next 7 years.

So in the post-Nama Republic - is the future Labour?
How long until HBAP posts that there's no point talking about it, as it will never happen....? :)
 
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This is something which would have been dismissed out of hand a few months ago.

So in the post-Nama Republic - is the future Labour?
Labour in power in the current climate would be a disaster - seen as a soft touch by the unions.

 

livingstone

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It's obviously very very unlikely.

But on a very very good day Labour could win second seats in Cork North Central, Cork East, all of its 8 dublin constituencies, Galway West, Wexford, Wicklow, Longford-Westmeath

It could win seats in Kerry North, Kerry South, Tipp North, Tipp South, Limerick, Cork South West, Carlow-Kilkenny, Meath East, Louth, Sligo-North Leitrim, Roscommon-South Leitrim, Galway East, Mayo, Donegal South East and (if the rumours on another thread are to be believed) Donegal North West.

That's 29 potential targets. Before the FG brigade start - I'm well aware that a big chunk of these are massive outside bets. The chances of winning even 15 of them are reasonably small I would think. But there are about 50 seats that Labour can seriously target and, as I say, on an uber-good day, win.

John Bruton was Taoiseach on 45 seats.

As I say, small chances, but its possible, and it's right for Labour to aim for it.
 

myksav

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Not yet. Maybe never. Dunno. But I've been giggling ever since I heard it. With the occassional guffaw.
 
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Just watched most of Gilmores address.
Went down well with the audience and well delivered.
But Labour will find the road is gonna get rough once the real election campaign begins.
And the worst part is that they are writing the election campaign for the FF trash merchants.
Put simply, FF will identify Labour as the weakest link and use them as a rod to beat the FG dunces.
Vote Fine Gael to empower Jack O Connor.
 

dotski_w_

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It's obviously very very unlikely.

But on a very very good day Labour could win second seats in Cork North Central, Cork East, all of its 8 dublin constituencies, Galway West, Wexford, Wicklow, Longford-Westmeath

It could win seats in Kerry North, Kerry South, Tipp North, Tipp South, Limerick, Cork South West, Carlow-Kilkenny, Meath East, Louth, Sligo-North Leitrim, Roscommon-South Leitrim, Galway East, Mayo, Donegal South East and (if the rumours on another thread are to be believed) Donegal North West.

That's 29 potential targets. Before the FG brigade start - I'm well aware that a big chunk of these are massive outside bets. The chances of winning even 15 of them are reasonably small I would think. But there are about 50 seats that Labour can seriously target and, as I say, on an uber-good day, win.

John Bruton was Taoiseach on 45 seats.

As I say, small chances, but its possible, and it's right for Labour to aim for it.
Oh come on. Labour are third in the polls, varying between 17-24% - how could a party come from that far back to neck and neck over such a short period? That'd be like the Liberal Democrats .... oh, hang on ;)
 

dotski_w_

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Not yet. Maybe never. Dunno. But I've been giggling ever since I heard it. With the occassional guffaw.
Reminds me of something Bob Monkhouse once said.

"They laughed when I told them I wanted to become a comedian. They're not laughing now."
 

goatstoe

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How long until HBAP posts that there's no point talking about it, as it will never happen....? :)
Won't be long now. To be fair HBAP and the other FGers around here are terrified at the prospect of a Labour bandwagon gathering pace. Many people see FF and FG as more or less the same so in that sense Labour are the only real alternative. Gilmore for Taoiseach is a real possibility once they run enough candidates and get a prevailing wind in their sails. Sure whats the alternative to Gilmore for Taoiseach in the likelihood that FF will not be returned to power - Enda Kenny:eek:. No contest Gilmore is the man.
 

livingstone

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TNS MRBI (or Ipsos or whatever it is now) has a pretty impeccable record on general elections. It may have gotten things wrong for the locals, but locals are a very different ballgame.

Labour are still in the low twenties in TNS. Labour on 19% in 1992 got 33 seats (with a few more lost due to poor candidate strategy) so Labour's optimal result at 19% would be closer to 35-36. At 24%, for example, getting 45-50 seats becomes a real possibility.
 

cruachan

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If 1992 never happened (Labour going in with FF) I would say Labour would really be seen as an alternative but since then there will always be the suspicion that they will put FF back in power and if the Greens could do it after the last election (after the planet Bertie rant) any party could. This is FG's trump card, they will never go into government with FF. Yeah they did support FF in 1989 (and suffered afterwards) but never voted for them as a government. Gilmore messed up last year when he refused to rule out FF coalition, he did afterwards but the suspicion is there.
 

Tomas Mor

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Quite possible for Gilmore to be Taoiseach- if he gets enough seats, or if Lab beat FF and support him in coalition, but then his cred would be gone like Dick Spring in 92, or as Sean McBride said, oppose Dev and put him out in 1948, and then not take the chance to dump him
 

dotski_w_

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If 1992 never happened (Labour going in with FF) I would say Labour would really be seen as an alternative but since then there will always be the suspicion that they will put FF back in power and if the Greens could do it after the last election (after the planet Bertie rant) any party could. This is FG's trump card, they will never go into government with FF. Yeah they did support FF in 1989 (and suffered afterwards) but never voted for them as a government. Gilmore messed up last year when he refused to rule out FF coalition, he did afterwards but the suspicion is there.
he didn't refuse to rule it out. he said they wouldn't, journalists speculated that there was "wriggle room" in the language used, and he pretty much immediately said no, there was none, he wouldn't go in with them.
 

Western Person

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It's obviously very very unlikely.

But on a very very good day Labour could win second seats in Cork North Central, Cork East, all of its 8 dublin constituencies, Galway West, Wexford, Wicklow, Longford-Westmeath

It could win seats in Kerry North, Kerry South, Tipp North, Tipp South, Limerick, Cork South West, Carlow-Kilkenny, Meath East, Louth, Sligo-North Leitrim, Roscommon-South Leitrim, Galway East, Mayo, Donegal South East and (if the rumours on another thread are to be believed) Donegal North West.

That's 29 potential targets. Before the FG brigade start - I'm well aware that a big chunk of these are massive outside bets. The chances of winning even 15 of them are reasonably small I would think. But there are about 50 seats that Labour can seriously target and, as I say, on an uber-good day, win.

John Bruton was Taoiseach on 45 seats.

As I say, small chances, but its possible, and it's right for Labour to aim for it.
Might as well have thrown in Cavan-Monaghan and Clare while you were at it. The chances in many of those constituencies are highly unlikely, Galway East, Mayo and the two Donegals won't deliver a seat, and two seats in Galway West and Longford-Westmeath will simply not happen, no matter how many carpetbaggers or bandwagon-jumpers they take in in such places.
 

myksav

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Reminds me of something Bob Monkhouse once said.

"They laughed when I told them I wanted to become a comedian. They're not laughing now."
And to think that I have, on occassion, been accused of not having a sense of humour. (out in the real world ;) )

If Gilmore actually became Taoiseach, I would definitely laugh.
 

Franzoni

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I'm not a statistics man ..all i know is that people i meet every day who would never really talk politics are really angry and pissed off with FF and the greens...Kenny is seen by a lot of people in working class Dublin(and by extension FG) as weak and not able to take on the government he really will be the reason that FG don't do the business in the next election ..he has been good for them but his time is up.....so who knows were in very strange times in this country maybe Gilmore could get in...especially if he reigns in his braindead councillors on DCC who bring in ridiculous speed limits and piss everyone off..
 
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