Global Heat Wave: Is This The New Climate Change Normal?:

owedtojoy

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In June 1976, there was a heatwave over north-west Europe. This map (from Berkeley Earth, an independent monitor of global temperature) shows the maximum temperatures experienced above the average:

Here is the equivalent map from 2018:



The difference is significant - the areas of the earth's surface in 2018 is much larger, compared to a baseline of expectation 1950-1981. Not only is NW Europe but large areas of North America, Asia, Africa and the Far East are experiencing higher than expected temperatures.

Countries as far apart as Sweden, Greece, the United States, Iran, Russia, China, Korea and Japan have seen extremes of weather not experienced in living memory. As we seem to have ourselves, with farmers forced to use winter feed for their cattle, and many crops becoming stunted in the heat.

Is this climate change? It is certainly unprecedented, but climate extremes can happen at any time, and (as we can see from 1976) heat waves did happen before. But are they becoming more frequent and more widespread? The answer is "probably yes".

Here is the last International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report (2014):

'It is likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. It is very likely that human influence has contributed to the observed global scale changes in the frequency and intensity of daily temperature extremes since the mid-20th century.

It is likely that human influence has more than doubled the probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations.'


Likely here means >66% probability. This was based on data from before 2015, but a new IPCC Report is due this year, and may up the "Likely" to "Very Likely", which is >90%.

At a commonsense level, it is plain that we cannot double the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere with having an effect on climate, and thereby on weather. Heat waves will not happen every year - but will become more frequent. This is not a "new normal" in the sense of a "new average", but a "new extreme" that will happen more often, as we will also be more likely to have storms of higher intensity and winter floods.

Some headlines from around the world:

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/japan-heat-wave-pushes-temperature-to-record-high-41-1-degrees-10554966

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44947962/greece-wildfires-aerial-view-of-destruction

https://www.thelocal.se/20180725/extreme-risk-swedish-wildfires-could-spread-to-south-of-the-country

https://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/07/extreme_weather_hits_us_heat_wave_in_southwest_flooding_in_northeast_photos.html

https://globalnews.ca/news/4311444/heat-wave-weather-across-the-world/

The paper at the link relates heat wave frequency with keeping global average temperatures below 2C.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12520-2

'The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.'
 
Last edited:


The Field Marshal

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Usual nonsense from a spammer paid to promote the lie that humans are altering earths climate.

ZOO.
 

jmcc

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So what's the difference in number and location between the stations measuring the temperature in 1976 and those measuring the temperature in 2018?
 

GDPR

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So what's the difference in number and location between the stations measuring the temperature in 1976 and those measuring the temperature in 2018?
So whats the difference between a simple nerd and one who has gone alt right because Orts/Techies/RTE? :)
 

bokuden

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In June 1976, there was a heatwave over north-west Europe. This map (from Berkeley Earth, an independent monitor of global temperature) shows the maximum temperatures experienced above the average:

Here is the equivalent map from 2018:



The difference is significant - the areas of the earth's surface in 2018 is much larger, compared to a baseline of expectation 1950-1981. Not only is NW Europe but large areas of North America, Asia, Africa and the Far East are experiencing higher than expected temperatures.

Countries as far apart as Sweden, Greece, the United States, Iran, Russia, China, Korea and Japan have seen extremes of weather not experienced in living memory. As we seem to have ourselves, with farmers forced to use winter feed for their cattle, and many crops becoming stunted in the heat.

Is this climate change? It is certainly unprecedented, but climate extremes can happen at any time, and (as we can see from 1976) heat waves did happen before. But are they becoming more frequent and more widespread? The answer is "probably yes".

Here is the last International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report (2014):

'It is likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. It is very likely that human influence has contributed to the observed global scale changes in the frequency and intensity of daily temperature extremes since the mid-20th century.

It is likely that human influence has more than doubled the probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations.'


Likely here means >66% probability. This was based on data from before 2015, but a new IPCC Report is due this year, and may up the "Likely" to "Very Likely", which is >90%.

At a commonsense level, it is plain that we cannot double the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere with having an effect on climate, and thereby on weather. Heat waves will not happen every year - but will become more frequent. This is not a "new normal" in the sense of a "new average", but a "new extreme" that will happen more often, as we will also be more likely to have storms of higher intensity and winter floods.

Some headlines from around the world:

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/japan-heat-wave-pushes-temperature-to-record-high-41-1-degrees-10554966

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44947962/greece-wildfires-aerial-view-of-destruction

https://www.thelocal.se/20180725/extreme-risk-swedish-wildfires-could-spread-to-south-of-the-country

https://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/07/extreme_weather_hits_us_heat_wave_in_southwest_flooding_in_northeast_photos.html

https://globalnews.ca/news/4311444/heat-wave-weather-across-the-world/

The paper at the link relates heat wave frequency with keeping global average temperatures below 2C.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12520-2

'The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.'
Meanwhile our appalling government is miles off target to achieve our global warming targets. This FG scum government is a disaster for our country and our planet.
 

jmcc

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So whats the difference between a simple nerd and one who has gone alt right because Orts/Techies/RTE? :)
Probably too complex a question for you to understand. Pehaps you should stick to non-nerd threads? :) It may surprise you to know that I accept that there is such a thing as Climate Change.
 

Telstar 62

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Everyone complains and debates about global warming, yet no one ever
simply asked the Mossad to turn it down a notch....;)
 

GDPR

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Probably too complex a question for you to understand. Pehaps you should stick to non-nerd threads? :) It may surprise you to know that I accept that there is such a thing as Climate Change.
Nothing surprises me honey.

And certainly not where this thread is going .... :)
 

gandyalf

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The Field Marshal

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LooseCannon

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It will be the new abnormal as long Ireland continues to increase carbon emissions.

Ireland is doing it's best to ensure the world heats up faster.

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/forestry-enviro/environment/ireland-completely-off-course-to-achieve-climate-change-targets-37153678.html

No sign of taking on the vested interests of the farming lobby and peat diggers.
(Bord na Mona is probably the most evil organisation in Ireland, hotly followed by the IFA and Department of Agriculture)
There is a housing boom pending and building standards are at risk of being diluted instead of improved.
The situation is chronic.
 

LooseCannon

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And Politics.ie has been invaded by right wing climate change deniers

Four centuries ago they would have been flat-earthers slagging Columbus
 

jmcc

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And Politics.ie has been invaded by right wing climate change deniers

Four centuries ago they would have been flat-earthers slagging Columbus
Columbus' voyage to the new world was in 1492. That was 526 years ago. Perhaps you should really learn some history and Mathematics before trying to play on P.ie. Boards.ie might be more to your liking.
 

The Field Marshal

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It will be the new abnormal as long Ireland continues to increase carbon emissions.

Ireland is doing it's best to ensure the world heats up faster.

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/forestry-enviro/environment/ireland-completely-off-course-to-achieve-climate-change-targets-37153678.html

No sign of taking on the vested interests of the farming lobby and peat diggers.
(Bord na Mona is probably the most evil organisation in Ireland, hotly followed by the IFA and Department of Agriculture)
There is a housing boom pending and building standards are at risk of being diluted instead of improved.
The situation is chronic.
My aim in life is to increase at every possible turn my carbon footprint.

And Politics.ie has been invaded by right wing climate change deniers

Four centuries ago they would have been flat-earthers slagging Columbus
You are just another left wing liar pushing the false agenda that climatic changes are the result of human activity.
You use this junk science to scaremonger populations in order to grab power and impose fraudulent carbon taxes.
 

Wascurito

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And Politics.ie has been invaded by right wing climate change deniers

Four centuries ago they would have been flat-earthers slagging Columbus
AGW is real but since the Earth is flat, those rising seawaters will just lap over the edge.

Word.
 

The Field Marshal

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Like I said, the trolls heard the call...
Taking a break from your perpetual smut talk with poster cyberianpan I see.

Naturally deluded persons like you swallow the junk science behind the AGW scam hook line and sinker.

:roll:
 

mossyman

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Meanwhile solar technology is racing ahead.

A US firm has developed a solar panel using graphene that is 96% efficient.
NanoTech Engineering – THE NEW WAY TO GENERATE ENERGY

And a Spanish firm is developing batteries using graphene that can hold an incredible amount of power, are lighter, smaller and can recharge in a few minutes.
https://www.grabat.es/en

And scientist in MIT have developed a way of mass producing graphene.
https://www.siliconrepublic.com/machines/mass-produce-graphene-solved

The technology is there now to solve this problem. In a few years, solar power will be cheaper that any other power source on the market. Costs have consistently fallen faster than expected.

This report here sees fossil fuels entirely phased out by 2050:
https://www.carbontracker.org/reports/expect-the-unexpected-the-disruptive-power-of-low-carbon-technology/
 


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