Global Heat Wave: Is This The New Climate Change Normal?:

raetsel

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I've got a massively over-powered Kärscher. I'd use it to pour water rather then to pressure wash. Better even to just use a hose at normal pressure and to avoid using even as much as a sponge. Just rinse it off a couple of times.
I used the power washer earlier to remove it without any ill effects, but the dust is pretty stubborn, so there is still a small deposit left. I guessed that a sponge might be a bit risky. I'm hoping that a few heavy rain showers will take care of the rest.
 


cozzy121

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Thousands of emperor penguin chicks drowned when the sea-ice on which they were being raised was destroyed in severe weather.
The catastrophe occurred in 2016 in Antarctica's Weddell Sea....the Brunt population, which had sustained an average of 14,000 to 25,000 breeding pairs for several decades (5-9% of the global population), essentially disappeared overnight....
Emperors are the tallest and heaviest of the penguin species and need reliable patches of sea-ice on which to breed, and this icy platform must persist from April, when the birds arrive, until December, when their chicks fledge.
If the sea-ice breaks up too early, the young birds will not have the right feathers to start swimming.
This appears to have been what happened in 2016
 

owedtojoy

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In June 1976, there was a heatwave over north-west Europe. This map (from Berkeley Earth, an independent monitor of global temperature) shows the maximum temperatures experienced above the average:

2zykeph.jpg
Here is the equivalent map from 2018:

efjtwo.jpg

The difference is significant - the areas of the earth's surface in 2018 is much larger, compared to a baseline of expectation 1950-1981. Not only is NW Europe but large areas of North America, Asia, Africa and the Far East are experiencing higher than expected temperatures.

Countries as far apart as Sweden, Greece, the United States, Iran, Russia, China, Korea and Japan have seen extremes of weather not experienced in living memory. As we seem to have ourselves, with farmers forced to use winter feed for their cattle, and many crops becoming stunted in the heat.

Is this climate change? It is certainly unprecedented, but climate extremes can happen at any time, and (as we can see from 1976) heat waves did happen before. But are they becoming more frequent and more widespread? The answer is "probably yes".

Here is the last International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report (2014):

'It is likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. It is very likely that human influence has contributed to the observed global scale changes in the frequency and intensity of daily temperature extremes since the mid-20th century.

It is likely that human influence has more than doubled the probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations.'


Likely here means >66% probability. This was based on data from before 2015, but a new IPCC Report is due this year, and may up the "Likely" to "Very Likely", which is >90%.

At a commonsense level, it is plain that we cannot double the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere with having an effect on climate, and thereby on weather. Heat waves will not happen every year - but will become more frequent. This is not a "new normal" in the sense of a "new average", but a "new extreme" that will happen more often, as we will also be more likely to have storms of higher intensity and winter floods.

Some headlines from around the world:

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/japan-heat-wave-pushes-temperature-to-record-high-41-1-degrees-10554966

Greece wildfires: Aerial view of destruction

'Extreme' risk Swedish wildfires could spread to south of the country

Extreme weather hits US: Heat wave in southwest, flooding in northeast (photos)

Heat wave smashes records around the world — a look at the sizzling temperatures

The paper at the link relates heat wave frequency with keeping global average temperatures below 2C.

Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature

'The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.'
gfs_world-ced_t2anom_1-day.png

Another heat wave in Europe. Apparently, Europe's Top 5 Summers in Temperature terms have all occurred since 2000.

And maximum temperatures were recorded in Netherlands, Belgium and Germany.
 

RasherHash

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RasherHash

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Al Savani

@Over400ppm

·
1h

Replying to
@GillesnFio

@NoelTurner194
and 48 others
Yep, Arctic Ice was LESS in the 30's and 40's because it was HOTTER.. This is supported by the Temperature Record, Arctic Crossings, and first hand accounts from the time. Larsen crossed in 1942.. today, this modern Icebreaker gets stuck..

EATscoZXkAE2C4K?format=png&name=small.pngEATscoZWsAE7ZDM?format=jpg&name=360x360.jpg
 

Clanrickard

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RasherHash

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This is conspiracy driven unscientific drivel.
How is the fact that the ice is too thick for ice breakers to get through now, while a wooden hulled ship was able to do so in 1944, "conspiracy driven unscientific drivel"?
 

RasherHash

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It was hotter in the 1940s than it is this past decade but the co2 was only c.300ppm :unsure:
 

RasherHash

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RasherHash

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Conservatives on Climate Change? Worth a listen.

If the ice caps are melting, how come two ice breakers can't make the Arctic crossing, while in 1944 a wooden hulled trawler made it?

How come the CO2 levels at that time were c.300ppm,while today they are supposed to be 440ppm but it is cooler today than it was then?

These questions need to be answered and not just ignored.
 

Itsalaugh

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I'm surprised the response to whats occurred in NW Europe thispast week is pretty muted here. Are any skeptics disputing that breaking a longstanding heat record in NW Europe by 2'c is pretty unpecedented? I'm sort of hoping the most promiment denyers here can come up with some tenuous context that might make me be able dimiss this because I've moved this week to feeling quite pessimistic about the global ramifications of climate change, when, just before I inclined more to the skeptic side of things and believed that whatever miniscule limited temp increases occuring was manageble without major structural upheaval.
 

RasherHash

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I'm surprised the response to whats occurred in NW Europe thispast week is pretty muted here. Are any skeptics disputing that breaking a longstanding heat record in NW Europe by 2'c is pretty unpecedented? I'm sort of hoping the most promiment denyers here can come up with some tenuous context that might make me be able dimiss this because I've moved this week to feeling quite pessimistic about the global ramifications of climate change, when, just before I inclined more to the skeptic side of things and believed that whatever miniscule limited temp increases occuring was manageble without major structural upheaval.
You have to balance that with the fact that Eastern Europe had a cold spell and that records everywhere weren't broken.

I think we hit 27c in June, 24c or thereabouts this past week (The highest temperature ever recorded in Ireland was 33.3 °C at Kilkenny Castle, on 26 June 1887) and the predicted (beware of predictions) UK record break failed to materialise on Thursday.

I accept the record was broken in Germany etc but it was marginal and there has to be some account taken of the margin of error in these things, especially when you consider there is 1.5 billion per annum being spent 'tackling climate change'.

Who gets the 1.5 bill, isn't it in their interest to make sure that lucrative baby keeps flowing?
 

RasherHash

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Also take into account the maneuverings of Eamon Ryan, who with very few seats managed to get Kenny to take 'climate change' on into the manipulable 'People's Assembly', a device which in my opinion is designed to bypass democracy and deliver unpopular policies that are part of the EU/government agenda.
 

Breeal

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Well the main reason behind the muted response is decades of Alarmist nonsense, people are sick of the constant fear mongering, hyping up every weather event which is being exploited for 'end of the world propaganda'. Also, climate science has been caught fiddling the numbers so often, it's no surprise people take their hand waving with a pinch of salt. BTW, the UK 'RECORD' has already been exposed as not being a record, I'm sure more of these records will be exposed as just more Alarmist propaganda.
 

Itsalaugh

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You have to balance that with the fact that Eastern Europe had a cold spell and that records everywhere weren't broken.

I think we hit 27c in June, 24c or thereabouts this past week (The highest temperature ever recorded in Ireland was 33.3 °C at Kilkenny Castle, on 26 June 1887) and the predicted (beware of predictions) UK record break failed to materialise on Thursday.

I accept the record was broken in Germany etc but it was marginal and there has to be some account taken of the margin of error in these things, especially when you consider there is 1.5 billion per annum being spent 'tackling climate change'.

Who gets the 1.5 bill, isn't it in their interest to make sure that lucrative baby keeps flowing?
Would you be prepared to explain it away if somewhere in SE England hits 40c within a decade or France goes beyond 46. The really extraordinary temp this summer was the 45.7 in June in SE France, a similiar set of conditions in late July could have given us 47.

Your mostly of hard left disposition so can u not see some potential here to hurt the neoliberal plutocrats. Owed possibly wouldnt concur but until a week ago I was mostly in the denier camp but if its real than surely the response of the OECD has to be an immediate move to major structural change, 4 day week, working from home, UBI/Yang and end of capitalism-gdp growth being the holy grail. Encourage populace to embrace mmda, ganga, mushrooms so to become more mellow and hopefully less materialistic. A fundamental retuning of society but somehow still arresting poverty in Africa, South Asia while containting carbon growth so that we don't have to become so callosuly immune to what could be mass climate refugee.
 


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