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Global trends. What's the plan?


Crack hoe

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Nov 13, 2012
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Two think tanks,
Espas.
The current growth model is coming under increasingly critical scrutiny around the world. A central issue for the future is the extent to which the major economic powers of the past fifty years – the US, Europe and Japan – will be capable of reformulating their growth model in a sustainable direction, and building new competitive advantages.
ESPAS Report

And the US national intelligence council
"We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures. It is our contention that the future is not set in stone, but is malleable, the result of an interplay among megatrends, game-changers and, above all, human agency. Our effort is to encourage decisionmakers—whether in government or outside—to think and plan for the long term so that negative futures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding"
National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds | Public Intelligence
Have produced reports forecasting the decline to the west and the rise of the developing nations in the east over the next 17 years. Both reports are in general agreement with other. There are many question that arise from these reports. However the shift in the balance of power is the focus of my question
Can these trends be reversed and is it in world intrest to try to reverse them? If not can Ireland/the EU insulate itself from this transition and how?
 
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Mountaintop

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As per the second link, I find it difficult to see any significant drawbacks to the 'megatrends' of individual empowerment and diffusion of power....but I feel, most significantly....skinny jeans are totz awesome...
 

CarnivalOfAction

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Jun 15, 2010
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16,545
Two think tanks, espas
ESPAS Report
And the US national intelligence council
National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds | Public Intelligence
Have produced reports forecasting the decline to the west and the rise of the developing nations in the east over the next 17 years. Both reports are in general agreement with other. There are many question that arise from these reports. However the shift in the balance of power is the focus of my question
Can these trends be reversed and is it in world intrest to try to reverse them? If not can Ireland/the EU insulate itself from this transition and how?
Here's one important reason behind the decline [for 99%] in the West:

[video=youtube;QPKKQnijnsM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPKKQnijnsM[/video]
 

Telemachus

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Website
en.wikipedia.org


What is the ‘new normal’ for housing? « ROGER MONTGOMERY

Here we see the dependency ratio, ie the number of taxpayers per dependents(old people and the young). It is dropping across the west due to low fertillity rates over the past decades and rising life expectency.

Its true that in many of the major cities continued immigration from the global south and eastern europe will offset some of these effects in certain western locales. But the demographic imbalance will lead to general impoverishment unless there is a massive increase in worker productivity.

Places like London and even Dublin may see continued higher property prices due to continued large scale importation of immigrants. Most Western countries of course will have significant falls in population over the coming decades.

There is a chance this will lead to the decline of social liberalism in many western countries as people realise that individualistic ideas of "do what you like" and "do not bother have a family as the state can provide", will not support you in old age when the pension/debt crisis wrecks the economies of western nations.
 

Crack hoe

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Nov 13, 2012
Messages
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Here's one important reason behind the decline [for 99%] in the West:

[video=youtube;QPKKQnijnsM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPKKQnijnsM[/video]
I would have thought that this inequity has always existed in western countries. And prehaps the inequity across the whole demographic of China/india would be greater than that of the US.
 

Crack hoe

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Nov 13, 2012
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What is the ‘new normal’ for housing? « ROGER MONTGOMERY

Here we see the dependency ratio, ie the number of taxpayers per dependents(old people and the young). It is dropping across the west due to low fertillity rates over the past decades and rising life expectency.

Its true that in many of the major cities continued immigration from the global south and eastern europe will offset some of these effects in certain western locales. But the demographic imbalance will lead to general impoverishment unless there is a massive increase in worker productivity.

Places like London and even Dublin may see continued higher property prices due to continued large scale importation of immigrants. Most Western countries of course will have significant falls in population over the coming decades.

There is a chance this will lead to the decline of social liberalism in many western countries as people realise that individualistic ideas of "do what you like" and "do not bother have a family as the state can provide", will not support you in old age when the pension/debt crisis wrecks the economies of western nations.
I'm finding it hard to relate the price of domestic property with a greater western decline.
Your last point on falling population growth is more probley a key factor. Do you think its now too late for western goverments to promote population growth and therefore slow down and maybe reverse the decline?
 

storybud1

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Oct 25, 2011
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6,741
You can draw many conclusions,
The Super Rich are buying politicians (nothing new there) and Politicians are incapable or running a society where the people are sovereign.

On the other hand the super rich do not have liquid cash, mostly shares which if they decided to offload would ruin listed companies and increase unemployment.

The video takes no account of this and and the likes of one example where the Buffets and Gates will give approx 60 to 80 billion away (mostly to Countries outside America)

What I find about these kind of diagnosis clips is that they simply do not offer a solution, bit like psycho babble therapy, they know what the problem is but cannot solve it, only repeat the same diagnosis again and again.
 

Telemachus

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I'm finding it hard to relate the price of domestic property with a greater western decline.
Your last point on falling population growth is more probley a key factor. Do you think its now too late for western goverments to promote population growth and therefore slow down and maybe reverse the decline?
Western governments will do nothing, they are a failed hegemony, im waiting for liberal democracy to burn itself to the ground and then something better can emerge.
 
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anewbeginning

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Stock Markets reached all time highs around the world today. This in the middle of a sustained economic downturn. It's hard to know what to make of it other than it's unsustainable and possibly another kind of bubble in the making similar to the dot com and sub prime bubbles.

As for American Politicians they have completely lost control of the American economy through political grandstanding and incompetence.
 

Hitch 22

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Dec 26, 2011
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White Europeans are dying out.
In Europe they are being replaced by Indians, North Africans, Middle Easterners and Africans who have higher birth rate.
In North America they are being overtaken by Spanish speaking Hispanics.
The situation is comparable with the fall of the Roman Empire when Roman legions and eventually Roman emperors themselves were barbarians.
France, Germany, England etc are disappearing.
Joan of Arc or Siegfried or Robin Hood means nothing to immigrant Muslims or Hindus who have their own myths.
In the United States the War of Independence, Civil War and both World Wars are also part of the white historical narrative.
Just as the barbarians who arrived and took over Europe forged new nations and new foundation myths the replacement of white Europeans will result in creation of a new historical narrative. They will speak of us in times to come like we now speak of medieval Europe, ancient Rome and Greece.
China and India will probably become the two great global rivals rather like England and France and the Himalayas will become the new English Channel keeping them apart and preventing them encroaching on one another.
The rest of world will become their theater of war.
 

Crack hoe

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I think there can be no doubt that there is a shifting of political, military, cultural and economic power to the east.
The US has secured it's power needs and will over the course of the next three decades look inwards and try to restructure its economy. The mood there seems to be changing and they probably will no longer want to be be the world's policeman however they will have a legacy from this in their future dealings with the rest of the world. It will remain a cauldron of people and ideas as it is this is what they pride themselves on.
The other western liberal democracies do have a greater problem in insuring that they will have a place in the world stage due to declining birth rate and the cost that this will have on their economies, for even Ireland needed to import people in the last decade to keep its economy growing and ireland has had a positive population growth rate more than many other western democracies can claim. I feel its not a problem to use immigration to bolster a nation as long as its done sensibly and that full intergration occurs, as as happened in the history of the U.K. and US
The European union started as a coal treaty and now has become something that is trying to bolster up individual states into a cooperative state to gain greater standing but have failed to address some of the underlying problems and has even failed in keeping europe at peace.
However prehaps the western liberal democracies are going soft and not fit for purpose any more and are leaving down their people and their wishes and aspirations as they have become like X factor and bow to the whim of now. And are unable to create a long term strategy to to fulfil the needs ( not wants) of the people they govern but only to lurch from one crisis to another never been proactive and always been reactive.
 
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