GOP - ahead in popular vote, but control of house a toss up

Casualbets

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I've constructed an Electoral Calculator in excel using both national and local polls - and the interesting thing is that even though the GOP are well ahead in the polls (latest RCP Average - 5.8%) they're still not in safe majority territory. At a lead of 5.8%, my calculator reckons the result would be :

GOP 222 DEM 213

If you exclude the local polls and apply the swing (8.3%) to all 435 districts the result is practically the same :

GOP 223 DEM 212

If the two parties were to tie nationally, the result would be as follows :

GOP 197 DEM 238

I wonder is perhaps turnout lower in massively Democrat Congressional district areas, i.e inner city areas, which might explain the discrepancy....
 


LeDroit

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As we have seen on the Obamacare issue, the Dems are a broad church with right of centre Dems being virtually Republican. With the country trending back to the right generally, more right of centre Dems will get in so even though the numbers of Reps to Dems looks tight the Congress will be comfortably right of centre. So Carter, sorry Obama, will have a 'mare of a time getting his agenda through.
 

SideysGhost

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Aren't a lot of the Congressional seats heavily gerrymandered, and both parties are at it, so that the huge majority of seats are pretty safe? I seem to recall a lot of discussion about that a couple of years back. Not a huge follower of US politics though, anyone know how many of the seats are marginal and could ever possibly switch sides?
 

spotty

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Your calculator is bunk. The Democrats pile up millions of useless votes in the inner city districts where they win 90-10. This skews the figures. A GOP lead of 5% in the national vote is absolutely unprecedented, and would give them 240-250 seats.
 

Casualbets

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Aren't a lot of the Congressional seats heavily gerrymandered, and both parties are at it, so that the huge majority of seats are pretty safe? I seem to recall a lot of discussion about that a couple of years back. Not a huge follower of US politics though, anyone know how many of the seats are marginal and could ever possibly switch sides?
You're right there, some of the districts look absolutely bizarre on the state maps, though they doubtless make perfect cynical sense in terms of demographics.... I'll have to compile a gallery of some of the worst offenders....
 

Casualbets

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Your calculator is bunk. The Democrats pile up millions of useless votes in the inner city districts where they win 90-10. This skews the figures. A GOP lead of 5% in the national vote is absolutely unprecedented, and would give them 240-250 seats.
Eh sorry, its not bunk. You're right, the Dems may well have millions of useless votes (and it's only a handful of districts they'd win 90-10), but similarly so do the GOP in rural districts in the south and west.

I've included about 70 district polls in the calculator (mainly key/competitive races) and the result is virtually the same as the national swing.
 

hmmm

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Which polls have you based these on - is it likely voter polls?
 

Casualbets

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Some of the more interesting races...

California 18 - Dennis Cardoza (D) unopposed last time, down 6 pts now...
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - California 18th District - Berryhill vs. Cardoza

California 20 - Jim Costa (D) won by 48 pts in '08, now ahead by just 2 pts....
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - California 20th District - Vidak vs. Costa

California 47 - Sanchez (D) won by 44 pts in '09, now ahead by just 2 pts...
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - California 47th District - Tran vs. Sanchez

Connecticut 4 - Himes (D) only won by 4 pts in '08, but is bucking the trend in the polls and has been slightly ahead in both polls conducted...
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Connecticut 4th District - Debicella vs. Himes

Florida 22 - Klein (D) won by 9 pts against black GOP candidate West in '08, facing him again and ahead by 5 pts in latest poll. One of those districts horribly redistricted.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Florida 22nd District - West vs. Klein

Hawaii 5 - Hanabusa (D) won 77-19 in '08; only 1 pt ahead in latest poll.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Hawaii 1st District - Djou vs. Hanabusa

Michigan 7 - Shauer (D) only won by 2 pts in '08, but is currently tied with Walberg (R) whom he defeated in '08.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Michigan 7th District - Walberg vs. Schauer

Michigan 15 - Dingell (D) won by 46 pts in '08, only poll shows him 4 pts down.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Michigan 15th District - Steele vs. Dingell

New Jersey 3 - Adler (D) won by only 4 pts in '08, leading by 3 pts in only poll.
RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Battle for the House

New York 24 - Arcuri (D) again won by only 4 pts in '08, leading by 8 pts in recent poll.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - New York 24th District - Hanna vs. Arcuri

North Carolina 7 - McIntyre (D) beast the GOP over 2 to 1 in '08 - is now tied in the polls...


Delaware - Mike Castle (R) won by 23 pts in '08, but he lost the Senate Republican primary. The Dems are leading the GOP by 15 pts in most recent poll...
RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Delaware At-Large - Carney vs. Urquhart
 

Casualbets

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Which polls have you based these on - is it likely voter polls?
The national swing I'm taking from the daily RCP average, so it's probably a combination of Registered and Likely voters polls.
 

owedtojoy

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fivethirtyeight.com has teh GOP ahead 228 to 207, and I suspect it will end that way.

GOP is closing on a Senate majority but is still at 52-48..

Obama can be happy he achieved so much in his first eighteen months - the most active of any Presdent. He is clearly changing his staff to suit a new situation - a tactical battle against the GOP, with his re-election and a renewed Congressional majority as the goal.
 

imokyrok

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fivethirtyeight.com has teh GOP ahead 228 to 207, and I suspect it will end that way.

GOP is closing on a Senate majority but is still at 52-48..

Obama can be happy he achieved so much in his first eighteen months - the most active of any Presdent. He is clearly changing his staff to suit a new situation - a tactical battle against the GOP, with his re-election and a renewed Congressional majority as the goal.
I think Silver said that the GOP have a 25% of taking the Senate. Presumably that means there is a 75% chance they won't. Not bad odds.
 

owedtojoy

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I think Silver said that the GOP have a 25% of taking the Senate. Presumably that means there is a 75% chance they won't. Not bad odds.
That's about it. Their probability has been increasing, but unless someone is caught "with a live boy or a dead girl", they may not make it.

The continuation of gridlock does not bode well for the US over the next couple of years .. especially as a hard core of Tea Partiers will probably even stymie the Republican programme. Obama might as well circle the wagons and prepare for the next election. On the other hand, he is always capable of the unexpected. For all his much-touted unpopularity, he is by a country mile the most popular national politician in the US at the moment.

Good article in the IT today:

Issues of race and social justice mark apart Tea Party supporters - The Irish Times - Sat, Oct 09, 2010
 

President Bartlet

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Americans are as thinck as the Irish.
One poll here shows an increase for FF yet they are the government that have presided over the mess and now it seems that the US wont give the Dems the time needed to fix the problems and instead will return control of Congress to the hands of the morons that cuased the problems in the first place.
Mindboggling!
 

johntrenchard

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Americans are as thinck as the Irish.
One poll here shows an increase for FF yet they are the government that have presided over the mess and now it seems that the US wont give the Dems the time needed to fix the problems and instead will return control of Congress to the hands of the morons that cuased the problems in the first place.
Mindboggling!
you havent been paying attention.

The Tea Party is taking out the old school Republicans via a strategy of entryism.

It most definitely will not be the same morons who caused the problems in the first place.
 

owedtojoy

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you havent been paying attention.

The Tea Party is taking out the old school Republicans via a strategy of entryism.

It most definitely will not be the same morons who caused the problems in the first place.
No, I a afraid you are the one who are fooling yourself. The imminent Tes Party Utopia will be on hold for a while.

Who will be Republican leaders in the House and Senate?

In the House - Boehner, the creature of Wall Street.
In the Senate - de Mint, the racist and fundamentalist Protestant.

Tes Party members will be in the minority - that is not to say they will not cause a stir. So it will come down to a power struggle between the old morons, and the new morons. They are screwed if they agree to the minority Tea Party's agenda, and screwed if they don't. Knowling Washington, probably neither will get done. The fun will start when Boeher has to persuade Blue Dog Democrats over to support his proposals and make up the numbers.

The man in the White House will be laughing.
 

Goober

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If people really knew all that was going on behind the scenes, they would vote at least 100 seats into Republican hands. No budget, more stimulus aimed at the Democrat base in order to get votes, strategy of implementing numerous “Executive Orders” in 2011, realization that Congress will change in 2011 so Obama plans to appoint far left individuals to numerous judgeships in order to circumvent our Constitution an legislate from the bench. And now this:

"Democrats in the Senate on Thursday held a recess hearing covering a taxpayer bailout of union pensions and a plan to seize private 401(k) plans to more "fairly" distribute taxpayer-funded pensions to everyone."

Why is the mainstream media not reporting on much of this. Liberal bias perhaps? Welcome to the era of Hopenchange!

New Lame Duck Threat to Bailout Union Pensions - HUMAN EVENTS

Be Afraid, be very afraid!
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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If helicopter Ben is still cackling away like a Bond villian pushing the levers of the printing presses in Castle GreySkull at Liberty 33 the day after these elections, its completely irrelevant who wins what House.

Daffy Duck could be President and the country would still be the same. He who controls the money runs the country.
 

Casualbets

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The RCP poll average now shows a 6.8 point lead for the Republicans.... this translates into 229 seats for the GOP and 206 for the DEMs on my calculator....
 

owedtojoy

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The RCP poll average now shows a 6.8 point lead for the Republicans.... this translates into 229 seats for the GOP and 206 for the DEMs on my calculator....
'Bout the same as fivethirtyeight.com, then. I don't think reports of "last minute surges" ring true, and it will be something like that.

Just like the GOP did 4 years ago, the Dems will spin it as a "normal" mid-term drubbing for incumbents. At least, its a wake up acall for them.
 

smitchy2

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Looks like the senate is up for play big time now with the GOP with all the momentum.
RCP has the senate at 48 to 46 for the Dems with 6 toss ups.
Without the toss ups, the GOP are in the lead by 51-49. That is the first time since the start of the summer. Some massive battles in Nevada and Washington ahead.

Those who think the Dems were not complicent in the banking crash are delusional. They have had the Senate since 2006.
 


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