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Government's Economic Forecasts to 2016 - Spring, 2013


H.R. Haldeman

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Oct 1, 2008
Messages
4,444
Something published from the DoF today called: "The Irish Stability Programme April 2013 Update, Incorporating the Department of Finance’s Spring Forecasts."

PDF here: http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/reports/2013/spu2013.pdf

Some headlines (partly as reported in RTE link below, and partly me copying from the PDF, with apologies for any transcribing errors):

Deficit
2013: 7.4%
2014: 4.3%
2015: 2.2%
2016: 1.7%

Budgets (Tax rises/Spending Cuts)
2014: €3.1b
2015: €2.0b
2016: Neutral

Economic Growth/GDP
2012: 0.9%
2013: 1.3% (down from forecast of 1.5% in Budget 2013)
2014: 2.4%
2015: 2.8%
2016: 2.7%

External Growth Assumptions
See page 11. EU negative till 1.4% in 2014. World growth ex EU 4.0% in 2013. US and UK 1.9% and 0.9% for 2013.

GNP
2012: 3.4%
2013: 0.8%
2014: 1.8%
2015: 2.0%
2016: 2.0%

Unemployment
2012: 14.7%
2013: 14.0%
2014: 13.3%
2015: 12.8%
2016: 12.3%

General Government Debt
At end 2012: "Ireland’s general government debt stood at an estimated €192 billion or 118 per cent of GDP. The debt ratio is expected to peak this year at 123% of GDP." (Page 24 , with a note on the PN on page 20).
Breakdown:
- Government bonds: €87.9b
- State Savings: €16.2b
- Promissory Note: €25.3b
- Programme Assistance: €56.7b
- Other: €6.4b

RTE Report: Government forecasts confirm further Budget cuts - RTÉ News

....

Couple of comments:

> The tumbling deficit number I find very hard to believe.
> Ditto, the end to nasty budgets by the one after next seems optimistic.
> Ireland is predicted to grow almost twice as fast as the rest of the EU in 2014. Almost matching the US, and killing the Brits (Page 11). Hmmmmm.
> The very modest improvement in unemployment is scary as hell.
> I can never remember the subtleties of GNP v. GDP, but the relative numbers look a bit odd to me.
> Strikes me the personal debt/mortgage crisis is going to need funds not accounted for here.
 

carlovian

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Joined
Jun 20, 2008
Messages
5,068
Did they give the lotto numbers for 5 years time as well ?

More chance of being right.
 
Last edited:

enuffisenuff

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Sep 27, 2011
Messages
3,462
 

emulator

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Joined
Oct 20, 2010
Messages
10,262
Something published from the DoF today called: "The Irish Stability Programme April 2013 Update, Incorporating the Department of Finance’s Spring Forecasts."

PDF here: http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/reports/2013/spu2013.pdf

Some headlines (partly as reported in RTE link below, and partly me copying from the PDF, with apologies for any transcribing errors):

Deficit
2013: 7.4%
2014: 4.3%
2015: 2.2%
2016: 1.7%

Budgets (Tax rises/Spending Cuts)
2014: €3.1b
2015: €2.0b
2016: Neutral

Economic Growth/GDP
2012: 0.9%
2013: 1.3% (down from forecast of 1.5% in Budget 2013)
2014: 2.4% (down from forecast of 2.4% in Budget 2014)
2015: 2.8% (down from forecast of 2.8% in Budget 2015)
2016: 2.7% (down from forecast of 2.7% in Budget 2016)

External Growth Assumptions
See page 11. EU negative till 1.4% in 2014. World growth ex EU 4.0% in 2013. US and UK 1.9% and 0.9% for 2013.

GNP
2012: 3.4%
2013: 0.8%
2014: 1.8%
2015: 2.0%
2016: 2.0%

Unemployment
2012: 14.7%
2013: 14.0%
2014: 13.3%
2015: 12.8%
2016: 12.3%

General Government Debt
At end 2012: "Ireland’s general government debt stood at an estimated €192 billion or 118 per cent of GDP. The debt ratio is expected to peak this year at 123% of GDP." (Page 24 , with a note on the PN on page 20).
Breakdown:
- Government bonds: €87.9b
- State Savings: €16.2b
- Promissory Note: €25.3b
- Programme Assistance: €56.7b
- Other: €6.4b

RTE Report: Government forecasts confirm further Budget cuts - RTÉ News

....

Couple of comments:

> The tumbling deficit number I find very hard to believe.
> Ditto, the end to nasty budgets by the one after next seems optimistic.
> Ireland is predicted to grow almost twice as fast as the rest of the EU in 2014. Almost matching the US, and killing the Brits (Page 11). Hmmmmm.
> The very modest improvement in unemployment is scary as hell.
> I can never remember the subtleties of GNP v. GDP, but the relative numbers look a bit odd to me.
> Strikes me the personal debt/mortgage crisis is going to need funds not accounted for here.
I've added a bit to the figures there.... :D

Seriously though, these are the same people who have been forecasting incorrectly for many years. If someone keeps telling you lies for whatever reason, be it incompetence or wishful thinking, most people will eventually stop listening to them.

They won't have to worry about a neutral budget in 2016 as they'll already be out by then.... :)
 

Analyzer

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 14, 2011
Messages
46,201
The whole thing is rather Pravda-esque. Multi-year plans, and projections, and they already know the results.

Does anybody that is not in the institutional state, or getting money from the institutional state, actually trust any of this nonsense ?
 

Analyzer

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Feb 14, 2011
Messages
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The assumption about the banks/NAMA not needing any money is particularly loaded.

It takes massive arrogance to be that confident.
 

Ren84

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Jan 14, 2011
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50,016
Bloody hell, over 12% unemployment in 2016?!
 

dresden8

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Feb 5, 2009
Messages
14,937
No need for Croke Park 2 so. Our lords and masters have it sorted.
 

Telemachus

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Apr 8, 2004
Messages
6,565
Website
en.wikipedia.org
It is the ultimate betrayal of the 0 - 35 age group.

2016: 12.3% unemployment

The Iceland option was the option many of us on this forum wanted. The elders in this society with their parties could not have this as to protect their wealth at all cost.

Idiot kids in that group voted for the FG-LAB coalition - F***K YOU.
 

CarnivalOfAction

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Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
16,545
I've added a bit to the figures there.... :D

Seriously though, these are the same people who have been forecasting incorrectly for many years. If someone keeps telling you lies for whatever reason, be it incompetence or wishful thinking, most people will eventually stop listening to them.

They won't have to worry about a neutral budget in 2016 as they'll already be out by then.... :)
In fairness, predictions are diFFicult, especially about the future:

Latest News | Sinn Féin

“The government has had to drastically reduce the number of jobs it predicted it would create by 2015 from 69,000 to 52,000.

“It has also had to reduce its growth forecast to 2015 from 8.2% to 6.5%.

“The predicted unemployment rate for 2015 has been increased from 11.7% to 12.8%.

“All of this is because the current policy of austerity is failing and the government needs to come to terms with that fact.

“It must also recognise the real hardship that austerity is causing to low and middle income earners across the country many of whom are struggling to keep a roof over the heads of their families and put food on the table."
 

Taxi Driver

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Joined
Jan 8, 2011
Messages
4,296
Couple of comments:

1 The tumbling deficit number I find very hard to believe.
2 Ditto, the end to nasty budgets by the one after next seems optimistic.
3 Ireland is predicted to grow almost twice as fast as the rest of the EU in 2014. Almost matching the US, and killing the Brits (Page 11). Hmmmmm.
4 The very modest improvement in unemployment is scary as hell.
5 I can never remember the subtleties of GNP v. GDP, but the relative numbers look a bit odd to me.
6 Strikes me the personal debt/mortgage crisis is going to need funds not accounted for here.
1 The deficit is already tumbling. The EDP deficit was 11.4% of GDP in 2009 and fell to 7.6% of GDP in 2012. This will continue.
2 Why should nasty budgets continue after the 3% of GDP target has been reached?
3 It's the euro area. Ireland has been the third fastest growing economy in the euro area for the past two years.
4 Agreed
5 There are not odd
6 Or maybe it won't
 

sic transit

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Joined
Jan 30, 2008
Messages
25,579
Irish economic forecasting is as accurate as Irish meteorology.
Getting better but with some way to go? On topic I agree on the unemployment rate. Would have hoped to see it close to or even in single figures. Puzzling that the rate of reduction in the numbers would be lower for 2015 & 2016. With higher growth forecast wouldn't there be a more pronounced reduction expected?
 
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Roll_On

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May 27, 2010
Messages
17,905
Over 12% unemployment after 3 years of strong economic growth is pants. We need a pro business government, one that'd be willing to lease empty nama officeblocks to Irish startup companies for free/ very cheap, one that controlls immigration and one that'll reduce taxes.
 

Clanrickard

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Apr 25, 2008
Messages
33,032
Over 12% unemployment after 3 years of strong economic growth is pants. We need a pro business government, one that'd be willing to lease empty nama officeblocks to Irish startup companies for free/ very cheap, one that controlls immigration and one that'll reduce taxes.
Agree but we have FG/LAB and we have three school teachers and a trade unionist at the top of the tree.
 

MacCoise2

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Nov 20, 2009
Messages
2,849
Important to compare to last Spring's SPU. Employment forecast way down :(
 

libertarian-right

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Joined
Apr 23, 2007
Messages
2,492
If you guys looked at other posts on unemployment or even graphs of other countries that experienced bubble busts, you will see it takes over a decade to try come even close to the position you were in previously. It will be past 2020 before we are close to even half our 14%. I believe we will never experience "full" employment again.

Employment lags extremely behind economic growth.
 
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