Green Party response to yesterdays announcements

Marcos the black

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Has any member of the green Party given an official reaction to the Anglo/AIB announcements yesterday?
They are still part of the government, aren't they, or is it a case that because this doesn't impact on "Climate change" that they have no opinion on it?
The last time I saw/heard from the Greens was Trevor Sargent on Front Line on Monday (in which he was destroyed imho)
Have they NOTHING to say whatsoever?
 


Tom245

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They must be busy thinking up new taxes to hit ordinary people with. Perhaps 5% consumption tax on potatoes or something similar will emerge.
 

LiberalFG

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Yes Gogarty made about a hundred announcements in relation to it.
It went something like this: It's not about the next General Election, it's about the next Generation, stupid!
 

jmcc

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Yes Gogarty made about a hundred announcements in relation to it.
It went something like this: It's not about the next General Election, it's about the next Generation, stupid!
I think that in a Freudian slip, Gogo managed to miss out that comma so that it became 'Generation stupid!'. :)

Regards...jmcc
 

Marcos the black

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Yes Gogarty made about a hundred announcements in relation to it.
It went something like this: It's not about the next General Election, it's about the next Generation, stupid!
So have The Greens made Twitter their official communications tool? (I do think it's funny that the words Twit and Tool in used in a sentence about the Greens)
 

wexfordman

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The greens seem quite happy to let anglo palns proceed as long as they get to push ahead with their program for government. I mean surely banning a stag hunt, and getting a dublin lord mayor in is far more important than a mere 34bn black hole.

In any case, a few more green taxes etc will help fill said hole!!
 

Mushroom

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The greens seem quite happy to let anglo palns proceed as long as they get to push ahead with their program for government.

I mean surely banning a stag hunt, and getting a dublin lord mayor in is far more important than a mere 34bn black hole.
And you're forgetting about Gormless's cynical and corrupt attempts to block the Ringsend incinerator. The next generation my butt - it's all about the next election.

The thing that I'm looking forward to most in the next GE is the announcement by the Returning Officer that Gormley has lost his seat in Dublin SE - plus his deposit!

(The Mc Dowell seat loss last time round was sweet enough, but the Gormley one will really cause the champagne corks to pop in Chateau Mushroom!)
 

goosebump

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Has any member of the green Party given an official reaction to the Anglo/AIB announcements yesterday?
I'm still waiting for FG to make a response.

So far, I've watched Prime Time, Vincent Browne and listened to MI this morning, and haven't heard anything.
 

miclin

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The blanket bank guarantee scheme required the bank recapitalisations. Like the Greens, Fine Gael voted for the guarantee scheme and thus they also voted for the consequential recapitalisations.

The Greens position is that the bank crisis has been costly but that allowing the retail banks to fail would have been more costly. The crisis has been the result of inadequate regulation and the procyclical fiscal policies of previous governments.

2010 is being treated as a big bath year with a huge amount of losses being crystallised up front. Compare this to the UK and Germany whose banks are being allowed to work through their toxic assets without balance sheet recognition in the hope that it will all work out in the future.

It's pretty clear at this stage that the Irish economy has stopped shrinking. Unemployment fell for the first time last month. Number employed is stabilising. GDP is up for 2010H1. Exports are up over 12% for the half year. 10yr bond yields have fallen 50 basis points since the announcements about Anglo, AIB and Nationwide. In the EU multiyear stability programme for Ireland, 2010 was marked in as stabilisation year and apart from the non-recurring exceptional bank losses, the stability plan is on target. It will now be revised with the EU and released shortly to take account of the Anglo recap costs and I expect the other parties will sign up to it as they did before.

Legislation has been in preparation all summer and we're about to sit down and start passing more Green laws. Although the bank crisis seems huge, the deficit crisis is larger still and the next budget (like last year's) will be very tough and difficult to get through the Dáil. Progressive legislation passes more easily in a time of crisis and right now the Greens have maximum leverage on FF who wish to stay in as long as possible waiting for things to improve before the next GE.
 

j26

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I'd forgotten they were in government, they've been so silent.

I must remember to have a big stick at the door for when they come round at the next election (Green voter at last election)
 

Marcos the black

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The blanket bank guarantee scheme required the bank recapitalisations. Like the Greens, Fine Gael voted for the guarantee scheme and thus they also voted for the consequential recapitalisations.

The Greens position is that the bank crisis has been costly but that allowing the retail banks to fail would have been more costly. The crisis has been the result of inadequate regulation and the procyclical fiscal policies of previous governments.

2010 is being treated as a big bath year with a huge amount of losses being crystallised up front. Compare this to the UK and Germany whose banks are being allowed to work through their toxic assets without balance sheet recognition in the hope that it will all work out in the future.

It's pretty clear at this stage that the Irish economy has stopped shrinking. Unemployment fell for the first time last month. Number employed is stabilising. GDP is up for 2010H1. Exports are up over 12% for the half year. 10yr bond yields have fallen 50 basis points since the announcements about Anglo, AIB and Nationwide. In the EU multiyear stability programme for Ireland, 2010 was marked in as stabilisation year and apart from the non-recurring exceptional bank losses, the stability plan is on target. It will now be revised with the EU and released shortly to take account of the Anglo recap costs and I expect the other parties will sign up to it as they did before.

Legislation has been in preparation all summer and we're about to sit down and start passing more Green laws. Although the bank crisis seems huge, the deficit crisis is larger still and the next budget (like last year's) will be very tough and difficult to get through the Dáil. Progressive legislation passes more easily in a time of crisis and right now the Greens have maximum leverage on FF who wish to stay in as long as possible waiting for things to improve before the next GE.
Is it?? Q2 saw a shrinkage, or did you miss that?
Unemployment may be reducing (if only by 0.1% in the latest figures) but I wonder how much of this has got to do with emigration.
 

carlovian

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Miclin - Just a couple of questions on your post.

Were Anglo and Irish nationwide retail banks and why were they included in any guarantee before we knew how much we were liable for ? Who was advising the greens at the time of the guarantee and what was that specific advice ?

You mention q1 as been positive growth (gdp) but why ignore the negative gnp for q1 and then the negative gdp and gnp figures for q2 ?

Unemployment falling has occured before in february but then rose again for several months before september.

Why the Lenihan like need to talk up every bit of relatively good news while ignoring all the negative figures. The spin about the fall in bond yields is comical considering Cowens line about the yields when they were going up.

Honesty with the irish people may be a better policy than the turned the corner nonsense were currently getting.
 

charley

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Is it?? Q2 saw a shrinkage, or did you miss that?
Unemployment may be reducing (if only by 0.1% in the latest figures) but I wonder how much of this has got to do with emigration.
Lots of people have gone back to education. BTEA is not counted on live register figures. October's tax deadline will bump the figures back up as well as the huge surge that will occur in January as lots of businesses will call it a day at Christmas.
 

bored and fussy

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I'm still waiting for FG to make a response.

So far, I've watched Prime Time, Vincent Browne and listened to MI this morning, and haven't heard anything.
No, I heard michael noonan on the pat kenny morning show and when pat asked him what would he do with the banks if he was in govenment now, and michael noonan said "well i wouldn't start from here"
They were his exact words

so maybe it is as well no one from FG appeared on prime time or vincent brown last night,
no one from the greens either.
 

miclin

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Hi Carlovian

Were Anglo and Irish nationwide retail banks and why were they included in any guarantee before we knew how much we were liable for ?
Irish Nationwide is a retail bank/building society. Anglo Irish was a commercial bank but its balance sheet had grown to 100billion euro by end sep 2008, 55% of Irish GDP at the time. No western country has allowed a bank with a balance sheet that large relative to the size of its economy to collapse. From memory, Anglo was AA rated at the time of the guarantee. Clearly there was insufficient information available from regulation and auditing to accurately measure anglo's risk.

Who was advising the greens at the time of the guarantee and what was that specific advice ?
The govt advisers are pretty well known at this stage. The Greens sought separate advice and contrary to rumours the green cabinet members were contacted for approval before the guarantee was announced.

You mention q1 as been positive growth (gdp) but why ignore the negative gnp for q1 and then the negative gdp and gnp figures for q2 ?
The GDP and GNP figures in Ireland are highly volatile and frequently subject to revision. If you look at a graph for the last couple of years, the data is very noisy with spikes up and down every quarter.

Colm McCarthy had this to say recently about Irish quarterly GDP data
In this paper, the conclusion here is that the Irish quarterly GDP and GNP numbers are very volatile, and considerably more so than is the case in other OECD countries, including smaller ones.

This study concludes that the seasonal adjustment procedure used by CSO is (probably) not the best, and that this can make a difference, in the sense that an alternative, and preferable, procedure can give results which sometimes alter the qoq % changes quite a lot.

The final study shows that revisions to the first-shot estimates, while no greater than elsewhere, can be substantial.
The more quarters data you have, the more you can rely on them. The EU stability programme for Ireland sets a target of -1.3 Real GDP growth for 2010. For the first two quarters we are at +1% so we can have another two quarters of -1% GDP and still meet our annual target. We are out of recession now since the start of 2010. Our expenditure and tax revenue targets are being met (or within 1% of being met).

Unemployment falling has occured before in february but then rose again for several months before september.
Every month this year the gap between this year's unemployment % and last year has narrowed. It's slow progress but it is constant.

Why the Lenihan like need to talk up every bit of relatively good news while ignoring all the negative figures.
Why not debate the data rather than my motivation? I don't claim that the economy is growing or has turned a corner but it has clearly stopped shrinking and 2010 is proving a flat stabilisation year which is a blessed relief from the previous 2 years.

We know that the Irish economy is unlike other economies in that it can change around very fast and is very responsive to international demand. We also know that a large portion of Irish financial and human capital was devoted to the unproductive business of creating a property ponzi scheme for the past decade. People are now going back to real jobs and education where they should have been. This is the foundation for a sustainable economy in future.
 

beamish2010

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Bunch of turncoats.

What good are the so-called Greens.They are as green as my a***.
A bunch of sell-outers,doormats for Zanu-FF.Proping up a very an unpopular and corrupt govt.

A of bunch of turncoats to be frank...
 

carlovian

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Miclin - i think thats a fair enough reply but i cant agree with your conclusions re economic growth ,employment prospects or the Anglo danger.

Morgan kelly was on primetime 2 years ago telling the nation that the banks were facing 30 billion worth of losses but we got fed the liquidity line by the government while signing up to the guarantee. Did we really make the right decision when we knew so little about what we were doing. Were we really that lucky ???

You say the green advisers are pretty well known but fail to say who they were or what
they advised.

Claiming the economy has left recession due to 1 quarters gdp figures is abit of a stretch when as Colm mcCarthy points out they can be very volatile. How come your putting so much weight on the q1 gdp but then insisiting the q2 fall isnt as important.

Fair enough on the point about questioning your motives but i just wonder when the country is in such a bad state about the blue sky brigade. Maybe my cynical nature.

I genuinely hope the country can recover from the mismanagement of the last 10 years (not blaming the greens for the mess) but i feel our first task is honesty.

If we dont know where we are, we cant get out of the mess.
 

miclin

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Morgan kelly was on primetime 2 years ago telling the nation that the banks were facing 30 billion worth of losses but we got fed the liquidity line by the government while signing up to the guarantee. Did we really make the right decision when we knew so little about what we were doing. Were we really that lucky ???
Some alternatives are:

a) We should have done nothing and allowed the banks to sink or swim.
No developed country has tried this. It's clear now that all the banks would have failed without aid. There is no modern legislation for dealing with bank liquidations in Ireland and experience in the UK with BCCI showed that bank resolution can take many years to work through. The fear was that there would be initial panic, bank runs, empty ATM machines, followed by the state trying to pay everyone back who had lost their deposits, followed by international markets refusing to lend to us at a time when we needed to borrow 20bn a year just to pay the welfare and public sector wages. It might then take us a decade to work through.

Then again maybe it would have worked.

b) We should have saved AIB an BoI and let anglo sink.
I'm not sure this was possible given that the EU prohibits governments from preferring some companies over others during an industry bailout. Anglo would have had a case under eu state aid rules and I can't see how they would have lost.

c) Honohan pointed out in his report that in retrospect it would have been an idea not to guarantee sub-debt and to exclude securities already in issue (only guarantee new paper). That's fair enough but he also admits that anything less than a total guarantee might not have worked.

The nub of the problem with the guarantee is that the quality of the banks' loan books was not understood by the regulator or the central bank so that there was not enough information to make a decision. It's also possible that any course of action would have been expensive. The damage was done by allowing the banks to grow at a rate that was several times the GNP growth rate over a 10 year period.

You say the green advisers are pretty well known but fail to say who they were or what they advised.
I said that the government advisers were well known - not the green advisers. As regards who they are and what they said, I have only heard second hand so it wouldn't be fair for me to ascribe things to people that may be incorrect. There may be something in the FoI docs that were released or you could just write to John Gormley's office. I don't think it's a secret.

Claiming the economy has left recession due to 1 quarters gdp figures is abit of a stretch when as Colm mcCarthy points out they can be very volatile. How come your putting so much weight on the q1 gdp but then insisiting the q2 fall isnt as important.
I take your point. We are technically out of recession because you need 2 sequential quarters of negative growth. We need to see the next couple of quarters to know what's happening but we can't conclude as the headlines did, that the last data shows a big drop in the Irish economy.

Fair enough on the point about questioning your motives but i just wonder when the country is in such a bad state about the blue sky brigade. Maybe my cynical nature.
Very few people are pointing out that the main economic indicators, which have been deteriorating at a shocking rate for 2.5 years, have mostly stabilised and that there are some bright areas like the leap in exports, increases in output and the growth in population and that the revenue and expenditure targets are being kept.

If we dont know where we are, we cant get out of the mess.
We need to learn the lessons of what went wrong and move one. I see a lot of poor analysis of the mistakes of the past and obviously if you fail to diagnose the problem correctly, you risk repeating it.

Leaving politics aside, I am very optimistic for the future. I can see people at work being more productive because they know they can't just waltz into another job. I see young people who had been earning a grand a week for blocklaying going back to college. I see the cost of business falling because of falling staff costs and commercial rents. When a person comes into some money their first thought isn't to use it to borrow ten times more and invest in property. The banks will be subject to decent regulation in future. FF has been humbled and is unlikely to get more than 30% in the next few elections.

We have had massive infrastructural gains like the roads network. Our young people are some of the best educated in the OECD. Our health service has improved massively in the past 4 years.

I am running a business and although I had a very hard 2008 and 2009, this year I've really sensed that business sentiment has picked up amongst my suppliers and clients.
 

Murra

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Miclin, is it true that the Greens are going to pull out next March when they don't get the Lord Mayor and by-elections?

That's what I heard anyway.
 


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