Gubernatorial elections, 2017

Dame_Enda

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Gillespie (R) and Northam (D) now tied in Virginia poll (44-44) The Libertarian is on 3% and 9% DK. Dems have led the polls in the state for months. Governor McAuliffe recently vetoed a law banning Sanctuary Cities so it may return if Gillespie wins. Trump has a net disapproval rating in the state of 37-57, and 40% say their decision will be partly about Trump.

Different story in NJ, the single other gubernatorial election for 2017. The GOP candidate Guadagno has been weakened by her boss's "Bridgegate" controversy, and her criticism of him over Beachgate.
 
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NYCKY

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As of right now, I think the VA race is up for grabs by both parties while the NJ race should be a romp for the Democrats. The polls in the OP would bear this out.


Incidentally, these are two races that are on the year immediately after the Presidential election years. In recent decades, the party that wins the White House had tended to lose these races (not always the case though as in 2013 when there were two very poor candidates in Virginia).
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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As of right now, I think the VA race is up for grabs by both parties while the NJ race should be a romp for the Democrats. The polls in the OP would bear this out.


Incidentally, these are two races that are on the year immediately after the Presidential election years. In recent decades, the party that wins the White House had tended to lose these races (not always the case though as in 2013 when there were two very poor candidates in Virginia).
Pretty spot on post IMO. Trump is a drag on Gillespie's ticket...IMO he'd otherwise have the advantage given the routine cyclical desires to change parties with termed out heads of state.

A key here in VA is voter turnout. The lefties are going to be motivated. And if they're smart, they'll also look into cutting into red areas in danger of being affected by ridding Obamacare and enacting other social services cutbacks. In western Appalachia areas where Trump won big, they stand to be most affected by that. They'll also need an economic message...it can't just be anti-Trump/GOP.

NJ is a foregone conclusion IMO given the blue hue and Christie's abysmal popularity rating. The guy blew the chance to make inroads for the GOP there...big time.
 

Jim Car

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Pretty spot on post IMO. Trump is a drag on Gillespie's ticket...IMO he'd otherwise have the advantage given the routine cyclical desires to change parties with termed out heads of state.
He could be somewhat but if he were as bad as many suggest you would think the Dem candidate would walk home. Whats happening now reminds me of the Georgia 6th (which dems tried to build as a referendum on Trump) if the dems loose this one there will need to be some serious soul searching if they win but only just there is still undeniable proof that the republicans are holding and not exactly slipping despite all thats happened. If Dems win big republicans are in trouble. Fact that the republican has come from behind to level the poll says a lot about how off the media are in their reporting of attitudes in the general public towards trump. Then again polls have not been to trust worthy of late. I would back the democrats given they seemed to have the lead and if it is off its more likely off in their favour.
 

NYCKY

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He could be somewhat but if he were as bad as many suggest you would think the Dem candidate would walk home. Whats happening now reminds me of the Georgia 6th (which dems tried to build as a referendum on Trump) if the dems loose this one there will need to be some serious soul searching if they win but only just there is still undeniable proof that the republicans are holding and not exactly slipping despite all thats happened. If Dems win big republicans are in trouble. Fact that the republican has come from behind to level the poll says a lot about how off the media are in their reporting of attitudes in the general public towards trump. Then again polls have not been to trust worthy of late. I would back the democrats given they seemed to have the lead and if it is off its more likely off in their favour.
The Virginia race is a bit more fluid, and unlike 4 years ago, there are two credible candidates.

This weekend is Labour weekend, the long weekend that marks the unofficial end of the summer and traditionally when campaigns kick into high gear.

Only two months to go and from here the polls typically tend to get more accurate, that said, they have been a bit off of late.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dame_Enda

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O'Sullivan Bere

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Gillespie running ad blaming Northam for sanctuary cities and the rise of MS13. Northam cast the tie breaking vote as Lieutenant Governor against an anti sanctuary bill in the state legislature.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ed-gillespie-ralph-northam-attack-ad-ms-13-sex-slaves_us_59d54b3de4b0becae80235d2?ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000016§ion=politics
Same old stuff...from your link:

. . .
What’s more, Gillespie himself conceded in his first debate with Northam that “we don’t have any” municipalities or counties in Virginia that could be labeled “sanctuary cities.”

Ed Gillespie, Republican nominee for governor of Virginia, has made an immigration vote by Democrat Ralph Northam a central theme of his campaign.

The Gillespie ad’s use of sexual assault imagery resembles the infamous Republican television ad attacking 1988 Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis for furloughing the felon Willie Horton. That ad explicitly appealed to voters’ racial animus by emphasizing that the furloughed Horton, a black man, went on to rape a white woman. The ad’s creator, Republican operative Lee Atwater, later expressed regret for the poisonous role the television spot played in American politics.
. . .
They tried to Hortonise Tim Kaine of VA too last election when he was HRC's VP candidate.
Tim Kaine Comes Under Attack in Willie Horton-esque Republican Ad
 

Dame_Enda

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Another poll just out has Northam ahead 5% (49-44). Virginia has no party-registration which makes data hard to read as a forecast.

Early vote figures.

 

Dame_Enda

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Mixed turnout picture. We don't have ethnicity or party ID figures as the state doesn't record those. But the higher turnout in the North (Dem leaning and where elections are decided) and women is positive for Northam - though the good turnout among the over 70s is good for Gillespie.


 

Dame_Enda

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midlander12

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The Virginia race is now too close to call, according to realclearpolitics.com:-

Virginia Governor - Gillespie vs. Northam The Polling Company (R) Northam 43, Gillespie 46 Gillespie +3
Virginia Governor - Gillespie vs. Northam Rasmussen Reports* Northam 45, Gillespie 45 Tie
Virginia Governor - Gillespie vs. Northam Roanoke College* Northam 47, Gillespie 47 Tie
Virginia Governor - Gillespie vs. Northam Suffolk* Northam 47, Gillespie 43 Northam +4

Looking like a possible major fk-up by the Dems. To lose this race would be catastrophic - they held Virginia right through the Obama-era shellackings and it was one of the swing states that stuck with Clinton last year. Apparently they ran an ad this week which showed a white van driver going around running over black and Muslim kids. Went down quite badly (oddly enough!) it seems.
 

paddycomeback

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Can I just check - aren't we on the Eastern side of the Atlantic? All these US threads are confusing me.
 

Dame_Enda

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The Virginia race is now too close to call, according to realclearpolitics.com:-

Virginia Governor - Gillespie vs. Northam The Polling Company (R) Northam 43, Gillespie 46 Gillespie +3
Virginia Governor - Gillespie vs. Northam Rasmussen Reports* Northam 45, Gillespie 45 Tie
Virginia Governor - Gillespie vs. Northam Roanoke College* Northam 47, Gillespie 47 Tie
Virginia Governor - Gillespie vs. Northam Suffolk* Northam 47, Gillespie 43 Northam +4

Looking like a possible major fk-up by the Dems. To lose this race would be catastrophic - they held Virginia right through the Obama-era shellackings and it was one of the swing states that stuck with Clinton last year. Apparently they ran an ad this week which showed a white van driver going around running over black and Muslim kids. Went down quite badly (oddly enough!) it seems.
Popcorn Tuesday night. Interestingly the poll was taken in both English and Spanish. Virginia has a 5% Hispanic population. Northern Virginia e.g. Loudon and Prince William counties, comes in last and traditionally decides the outcome. Its mostly Democrat but margins will matter. GOP traditionally dominate the rural parts of the state.
 
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