Gubernatorial elections 2018


Dame_Enda

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Like the Senate race, the gubernatorial election in Florida is also close. The state hasnt elected a Democrat for governor for 24 years. Latest polls indicate the state's Agricultural Commissioner, Adam Puttnam, who had been leading the race for the GOP nomination, may be losing ground for siding with the NRA against Florida's new law raising the age for assault weapons to 21. Trump supporter Rep. Ron DeSantis leads him 2%. It has been close between the two since December. The Democrat primary is a knife-edge between Andrew Gillum and Philip Levine. A February poll showed Puttnam beating Levin 40-32, but even with Gillum in two polls, and ahead in two others. Gwen Graham was ahead of them in some earlier polls but has dropped to 9% in latest Gravis poll from 18% in December.

Florida GOP gubernatorial candidate dips in polls after supporting NRA | TheHill

In California the GOP have an uphill battle but the states multiparty "jungle primary" system has the top two going forward regardless of party, and with 6 Dem candidates and divisions between the Clinton and Bernie wings, the latest poll has the GOP candidate second in the jungle primary. 2 polls linked to State AG Gavin Newsom (D) as well as a Dem poll by PPP has John Cox (R) gaining ground but still behind him on 14-6%. Newsom is the likely to make the final 2 as he's on 28%. Surprisingly a poll in March 2018 found that in a Newsom vs Cox matchup it would be 45-45, though its a Republican pollster called Smithson. He opposes capital punishment, which might appeal to liberals. However California recently rejected a proposal to end the death penalty 53.15% to 46.85% (though in practice its meaningless because the appeals take decades there). Noone has been executed in the state since 2006.


NY is not competitive this time. Cuomo has two-to-one leads over all the potential Republican candidates. Likewise while we don't have polling, Hawaii is not considered competitive. In Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy was unpopular before Trump and as of February only has a 24% rating in the state, and has pushed controversial Sanctuary City policies. We have no polling yet, but Larry Sabato calls it a "toss up". Also hopefully for Republicans, the Dems in the state legislature are only 2% more popular than the GOP. Unfortunately for the GOP, Malloy is not running again this year.
 
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Meiriceánach

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In NY Cuomo is facing a serious primary challenge from Cynthia Nixon. The issues will be the rampant corruption in Cuomo's administration, his policies benefitting his big money campaign contributors, and his role in giving the Republicans control over the state Senate.
 

bormotello

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NYCKY

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In NY Cuomo is facing a serious primary challenge from Cynthia Nixon. The issues will be the rampant corruption in Cuomo's administration, his policies benefitting his big money campaign contributors, and his role in giving the Republicans control over the state Senate.
Cuomo has had something of a charmed run as Governor. He was first elected in 2010 in a bumper year for the GOP. However, the tea party stopped a credible candidate Rick Lazio and nominated tea party fruit cake Carl Paladino and Cuomo won in a landslide. This was on the heels of the Spitzer/Patterson years, Spitzer was caught with a prostitute and trying to structure cash withdrawals (to pay) to avoid reporting to the Government. His Lt Governor Patterson ascended to the Governorship when Spitzer resigned. Patterson could be frequently found partying in the Hamptons as the credit crisis exploded, often suffering from hoarseness there too. He wanted to run again but then President Obama urged him to and thus opening the door for Cuomo.

Fast forward to 2014, another good year for the GOP and Cuomo faced a strong primary challenge from an unnkown college professor who took 33% of the vote without even mounting a serious campaign. Cuomos GOP opponent Rob Astorino was double crossed by NJ Governor Chris Christie (the national chair of the GOP Governors group), who had urged him to run and then abandoned him, giving him no funds, using the saying "we don't pay for lost causes and we don't invest in landslides". Christie wouldn't even cross the bridge (yes, that bridge) to do a fund raiser for him. Of course Bridgegate was exploding in 2014.

Cynthia Nixon, of Sex in the City is a close friend and confidant of NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio and the hostility between Cuomo and DeBlasio is an open secret. She is unlikely to win but could create noise for Cuomo but in any event the GOP are struggling to recruit a good candidate in what is shaping up to be a good year for the Democrats.
 

NYCKY

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Like the Senate race, the gubernatorial election in Florida is also close. The state hasnt elected a Democrat for governor for 24 years. Latest polls indicate the state's Agricultural Commissioner, Adam Puttnam, who had been leading the race for the GOP nomination, may be losing ground for siding with the NRA against Florida's new law raising the age for assault weapons to 21. Trump supporter Rep. Ron DeSantis leads him 2%. It has been close between the two since December. The Democrat primary is a knife-edge between Andrew Gillum and Philip Levine. A February poll showed Puttnam beating Levin 40-32, but even with Gillum in two polls, and ahead in two others. Gwen Graham was ahead of them in some earlier polls but has dropped to 9% in latest Gravis poll from 18% in December.

Florida GOP gubernatorial candidate dips in polls after supporting NRA | TheHill

In California the GOP have an uphill battle but the states multiparty "jungle primary" system has the top two going forward regardless of party, and with 6 Dem candidates and divisions between the Clinton and Bernie wings, the latest poll has the GOP candidate second in the jungle primary. 2 polls linked to State AG Gavin Newsom (D) as well as a Dem poll by PPP has John Cox (R) gaining ground but still behind him on 14-6%. Newsom is the likely to make the final 2 as he's on 28%. Surprisingly a poll in March 2018 found that in a Newsom vs Cox matchup it would be 45-45, though its a Republican pollster called Smithson. He opposes capital punishment, which might appeal to liberals. However California recently rejected a proposal to end the death penalty 53.15% to 46.85% (though in practice its meaningless because the appeals take decades there). Noone has been executed in the state since 2006.


NY is not competitive this time. Cuomo has two-to-one leads over all the potential Republican candidates. Likewise while we don't have polling, Hawaii is not considered competitive. In Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy was unpopular before Trump and as of February only has a 24% rating in the state, and has pushed controversial Sanctuary City policies. We have no polling yet, but Larry Sabato calls it a "toss up". Also hopefully for Republicans, the Dems in the state legislature are only 2% more popular than the GOP. Unfortunately for the GOP, Malloy is not running again this year.
Right now, the likely flips from R to D, are Illinois, New Mexico and Maine, others like Colorado, Nevada, Connecticut and Michigan are seen as toss ups. The Democrats should pick up at least a few Governors mansions, given that it's shaping up to be a good year and that they are at their lowest level in decades in terms of Governorships.
 

valamhic

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Right now, the likely flips from R to D, are Illinois, New Mexico and Maine, others like Colorado, Nevada, Connecticut and Michigan are seen as toss ups. The Democrats should pick up at least a few Governors mansions, given that it's shaping up to be a good year and that they are at their lowest level in decades in terms of Governorships.
Do you expect the GOP to gain anything from the Trump economic boom?
 

Dame_Enda

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GOP candidate ex Senator Mike DeWine ahead of Richard Cordray (D) 47-39 in latest poll. If Dennis Kucinich is the candidate (he who sometimes appears on Russia Today and is an ex Congressman), its 51-38. Cordray and Kucinich are level on 21-21 in latest poll for Dem primary, and DeWine is a good bit ahead of Mary Taylor for the GOP nomination.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_gubernatorial_election,_2018#Polling_3
 

Dame_Enda

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Some recent polls:

New Mexico: Pearce (R) Grisham (D)
The Tarrance Group (R-Pearce) April 9–12, 2018 608 ± 4.1% 47% 45% 8%
The Tarrance Group (R) May 20–23, 2017 605 ± 4.1% 47% 43% 10%

--
Ohio:
Mike DeWine (R) Richard Cordray (D) DK
SurveyUSA March 16–20, 2018 1,408 ± 3.5% 47% 39% 14%

if DeWine vs Kucinich:

SurveyUSA March 16–20, 2018 1,408 ± 3.5% DeWine (R) 51, Kucinich (D) 38%
 

leftsoc

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Cuomo has had something of a charmed run as Governor. He was first elected in 2010 in a bumper year for the GOP. However, the tea party stopped a credible candidate Rick Lazio and nominated tea party fruit cake Carl Paladino and Cuomo won in a landslide. This was on the heels of the Spitzer/Patterson years, Spitzer was caught with a prostitute and trying to structure cash withdrawals (to pay) to avoid reporting to the Government. His Lt Governor Patterson ascended to the Governorship when Spitzer resigned. Patterson could be frequently found partying in the Hamptons as the credit crisis exploded, often suffering from hoarseness there too. He wanted to run again but then President Obama urged him to and thus opening the door for Cuomo.

Fast forward to 2014, another good year for the GOP and Cuomo faced a strong primary challenge from an unnkown college professor who took 33% of the vote without even mounting a serious campaign. Cuomos GOP opponent Rob Astorino was double crossed by NJ Governor Chris Christie (the national chair of the GOP Governors group), who had urged him to run and then abandoned him, giving him no funds, using the saying "we don't pay for lost causes and we don't invest in landslides". Christie wouldn't even cross the bridge (yes, that bridge) to do a fund raiser for him. Of course Bridgegate was exploding in 2014.

Cynthia Nixon, of Sex in the City is a close friend and confidant of NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio and the hostility between Cuomo and DeBlasio is an open secret. She is unlikely to win but could create noise for Cuomo but in any event the GOP are struggling to recruit a good candidate in what is shaping up to be a good year for the Democrats.
Surely Spitzer was one of the good guys, stitched up because he prosecuted Wall st. criminals. Is my memory wrong?
Cuomo's father was a great man. Cuomo Jnr. is is a shill, surely
 

Sync

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he Associated Press

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BREAKING: Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens charged with felony for use of charity donor list for political campaign.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/987460030613086208
Now everyone’s entitled to the presumption of innocence etc etc: it’s worth noting that in his and his lawyers statements on the case that neither of them are actually disputing the underlying fact of the charge. It’s more a line of “it was his charity, he could do whatever he wanted with the list”.

Oh and the dummy still hasn’t stepped out of the race.
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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Dem AG leads the likely GOP candidate for Mississippi governor 44-41 in a hypothetical matchup.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/384656-poll-dem-leads-republican-by-5-points-in-likely-match-up-for-mississippi
Well, no sh!t TBF and shame on that state if the GOP's Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves wins the election.

The GOP Governor, Eric Greitens, has admitted to an extramarital affair and is under state Congressional and legal investigation regarding credible accusations of stalking and physically and sexually assaulting his paramour.

He's also been indicted on a felony charge of computer tampering for hacking into a military veterans charity group to steal its nonprofit donor list. He even founded that charity, The Mission Continues, that's ostensibly there to support military veteran readjustments to civilian life but instead had that other purpose in mind for getting such a list.

Now the GOP wants his Lt Governor to replace him.....WTF in a normal world, but that's not how the GOP is operating these days, and often gets away with the outrageous thanks to its muppetised base.
 

Dame_Enda

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Well, no sh!t TBF and shame on that state if the GOP's Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves wins the election.

The GOP Governor, Eric Greitens, has admitted to an extramarital affair and is under state Congressional and legal investigation regarding credible accusations of stalking and physically and sexually assaulting his paramour.

He's also been indicted on a felony charge of computer tampering for hacking into a military veterans charity group to steal its nonprofit donor list. He even founded that charity, The Mission Continues, that's ostensibly there to support military veteran readjustments to civilian life but instead had that other purpose in mind for getting such a list.

Now the GOP wants his Lt Governor to replace him.....WTF in a normal world, but that's not how the GOP is operating these days, and often gets away with the outrageous thanks to its muppetised base.
You're confusing Mississsippi with Missouri. Greitens is Governor of Missouri.
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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You're confusing Mississsippi with Missouri. Greitens is Governor of Missouri.
Ah....good catch mo chara...my apologies. I just got back in the office and was faxing a bunch of papers when I read and wrote that. It's another reminder that multitasking merely means when you're concentrating everywhere, you're concentrating nowhere. ;)
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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Dem AG leads the likely GOP candidate for Mississippi governor 44-41 in a hypothetical matchup.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/384656-poll-dem-leads-republican-by-5-points-in-likely-match-up-for-mississippi
Let's try this again hehe. A poll like that exhibits what's been seen yet again last night in the special election in that deeply red AZ House district where the Dem got close to beating her opponent.
Republican Lesko wins Arizona special election But Lesko's single-digit margin in a district Trump carried by 21 points has Republican strategists concerned. - Politico
Such a pattern is clearly showing a national trend right now regardless of location. I don't foresee a Democrat winning the MS Governorship given it's likewise a deeply red state unless something truly scandalous erupts. It will be closer than usual though.
 

NYCKY

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Let's try this again hehe. A poll like that exhibits what's been seen yet again last night in the special election in that deeply red AZ House district where the Dem got close to beating her opponent.
Republican Lesko wins Arizona special election But Lesko's single-digit margin in a district Trump carried by 21 points has Republican strategists concerned. - Politico
Such a pattern is clearly showing a national trend right now regardless of location. I don't foresee a Democrat winning the MS Governorship given it's likewise a deeply red state unless something truly scandalous erupts. It will be closer than usual though.
I agree that Mississippi is unlikely to elect a Democratic Governor, but State Attorneys General have a habit of going on to higher office.

They get great airtime with their crimebusting antics, it's great to get on local TV with the news that they broke up smuggling/trafficking ring or are launching a big investigation into some evil corporation that is polluting/tax dodging/under paying workers/scamming customers etc, the list is endless and makes for great PR. The vast majority are elected statewide and so don't have to answer to a Governor

The current Governors ranks have plenty of former AGs , Jerry Brown in California, Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Henry McMaster in South Carolina, Steve Bullock in Montana and Andy Cuomo in NY (as was his predecessor Elliot Spitzer).

It's a similar situation in the Senate, Dick Blumenthal of Connecticut, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Kamala Harris in California, Sheldon Whitehouse in Rhode Island, Catherine Masto in Nevada to name a few.

Luther Strange who briefly held a Senate seat from Alabama was the state AG as was EPA administrator Scott Pruitt in Oklahoma. The big dog Bubba Clinton was a one time AG of Arkansas. The list goes on

There are several state AGs running for Senate/Governor this year and some will win. They tend to do a good job in attracting cross party support.
 
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