Gurdgiev: our only choice now is between orderly or disorderly default. Choose wisely

cjudge

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In their heart of hearts they must know it but they seem determined to be good little Europeans right to the bitter end.
They must know it. No amount of playing around with the sums can make even the interest payments on these loans affordable. If they wait to the bitter end, it will be bitter - no more pension fund, reserves etc. The choice natural resources, public utilities etc will have been picked off.

CS puts it very well. Will Labour go this far?

Our fate is in the hands of people who can buy us time to assess our options. It is in the hands of opposition parties and individuals who have the courage to stop the steamroller in front of us. Do we reject the budget? At a time when the country is crying out for leadership, there may be political advantage in representing a view that seeks to retain some control over our future, instead of obliging us to submit weekly reports to our new governors.

Some commentators will say that to reject the budget would be sabotage. To accept it is suicide.
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Sync

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But you are the lad who said that if house prices have fallen 40% and now fall another 40%, that makes 80%.
...............No it wouldn't. Good god, why do people come into the Economics forum if they can't even do basic math?

If something's worth €100 and you reduce it 40% you've got €60. If you then think that's going to reduce by another 40% then you're left with €36. That's a reduction from your original figure of 64%.

You don't keep using the original figure for writedowns, you use the current figure and express what you think it's going to drop as a percentage of that.
 

Sync

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In their heart of hearts they must know it but they seem determined to be good little Europeans right to the bitter end.
Seems like that all right. The problem is that no one at all is presenting the argument. The main parties are locked to the IMF option. The parties who are saying to default are loons who haven't given in 1/10th of the thought Gurgiev has.

There's no credible party saying "We should default, and here are the steps that would involve, and here's our 10 year plan afterwards". So the conversation doesn't really get going.
 

Mitsui2

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Of all the statements I've seen on p.ie this has to be one of the most senseless.
Read back on some of willard/robert's posts & this one will seem almost sensible, if only by comparison. He's, uh, not entirely unbiased - it makes his logic circuits wobble sometimes.
 

DownTheyGo

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There's no credible party saying "We should default, and here are the steps that would involve, and here's our 10 year plan afterwards". So the conversation doesn't really get going.
I suspect its not an easy strategy to publicise for many reasons. It bewilders me the approach the EU has taken on this. I wonder if they are expecting us to default or will the newly elected government and EU reach an acceptable compromise. Or do the EU need to see we are taking it very seriously? It will be down to FG to enact the necessary. I hope within their ranks, this is high on the agenda.
 

MPB

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Seems like that all right. The problem is that no one at all is presenting the argument. The main parties are locked to the IMF option. The parties who are saying to default are loons who haven't given in 1/10th of the thought Gurgiev has.

There's no credible party saying "We should default, and here are the steps that would involve, and here's our 10 year plan afterwards". So the conversation doesn't really get going.
They had better start soon.

This election will favour anti EU/IMF hardliners.
 

captainwillard

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...............No it wouldn't. Good god, why do people come into the Economics forum if they can't even do basic math?

If something's worth €100 and you reduce it 40% you've got €60. If you then think that's going to reduce by another 40% then you're left with €36. That's a reduction from your original figure of 64%.

You don't keep using the original figure for writedowns, you use the current figure and express what you think it's going to drop as a percentage of that.
Eh that is what i said. I was talking about a fibonacci retracement. 40% followed by 40% does not make 80%. He said it does. Now he agrees with the numbers produced by CG. Anyone who does not understand this lacks basic numeracy skills.
 
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hammer

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We now have to close a €28,000 million deficit. When that is done are we to start repaying the national debt of €91,000 million + promissory notes anglo / inbs €30,000 million + whatever we drawdown on the IMF/EU stitch up :) :)

Bumpy ride. It will be DEVASTATION.
 

NotDumbOrCrazy

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I suspect its not an easy strategy to publicise for many reasons. It bewilders me the approach the EU has taken on this. I wonder if they are expecting us to default or will the newly elected government and EU reach an acceptable compromise. Or do the EU need to see we are taking it very seriously? It will be down to FG to enact the necessary. I hope within their ranks, this is high on the agenda.
I do not believe the ECB, etc. are so incompetent that they don't understand we cannot afford to pay back the loan.

So what are they up to?

I can't figure it out.
 

TonyB

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If this hero of yours is so clever, why is he a lowly paid academic? Surely, he should be doing something a little more worthwhile.

Never trust academics.
Yeah, always rely on bankers and politicians. Then you'll be fine.
 

captainwillard

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We now have to close a €28,000 million deficit. When that is done are we to start repaying the national debt of €91,000 million + promissory notes anglo / inbs €30,000 million + whatever we drawdown on the IMF/EU stitch up :) :)

Bumpy ride. It will be DEVASTATION.
We can always ask the Germans to try some inflationary policies. Our debt would simply vanish away. Gold prices are high and investors do not trust policymakers to follow what would have been considered very recently prudent policies.
 

captainwillard

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Yeah, always rely on bankers and politicians. Then you'll be fine.
We should trust our own judgment. If you want to yield your trust to anyone, best of luck to you. CG has produced these numbers and wants some publicity. He has an agenda which is to further his own career. I don't trust him or any careerist.
 

Goban Saor

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We should trust our own judgment. If you want to yield your trust to anyone, best of luck to you. CG has produced these numbers and wants some publicity. He has an agenda which is to further his own career. I don't trust him or any careerist.
So dont base policy on any science then? Fantastic. I cant wait for you and Cael to come together to show us how to build a Utopian society on "hope and faith".
 

sidney waddell

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I dont want him to come on the national airwaves with some form of additional credibility simply because he is an academic. What didd this guy say in the boom?
Totally agree. Personally I only listen to what the likes of Austin Hughes, Dan McLaughlin or Donal O'Mahony say. These guys were the cream of the crop - the ones who were actually out there in the marketplace earning the money. These are the people who have the real credibility.The likes of Gurdgiev talked us into a recession.
 

captainwillard

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So dont base policy on any science then? Fantastic. I cant wait for you and Cael to come together to show us how to build a Utopian society on "hope and faith".
Economics is a dismal science. Where was CG in the boom? What did he say? The likes of Desperate Dan from Bank of Ireland told us the boom would last indefinitely. What science were they basing their forecasts on?
 

SideysGhost

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Totally agree. Personally I only listen to what the likes of Austin Hughes, Dan McLaughlin or Donal O'Mahony say. These guys were the cream of the crop - the ones who were actually out there in the marketplace earning the money. These are the people who have the real credibility.The likes of Gurdgiev talked us into a recession.
:lol:

This is a pisstake I hope?
 

Sync

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Economics is a dismal science. Where was CG in the boom? What did he say? The likes of Desperate Dan from Bank of Ireland told us the boom would last indefinitely. What science were they basing their forecasts on?
His blog's been published pretty regularly for the last 2 years. Why don't you read it instead of exposing everyone to your ignorance? Why do you even bother getting involved in a thread where you admit to knowing nothing about the featured protagonist?
 


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