Has FG's referendum policy promoted the rise of SF?

rockofcashel

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Something I have thought about over the past week or so, after seeing that up to 125,000 new voters registered on the Supplementary register in the weeks before it closed, in order to vote in the upcoming referendum.

There was also a huge surge amongst young voters in the weeks prior to the Same sex marriage. Again mainly amongst younger people.


And polls over the past few years have suggested that SF are the main beneficiaries of younger voters, when they do go to vote. Not all of course, but the greatest amount in the 18-35 cohort.


I would suggest that part of this is down to the fact that referenda do not tend to follow "historical" voting preferences, which tended to see younger people vote along past familial preferences.

In the last two referenda, the bulk of the "young voters" have seen themselves be on the same side as SF. In this one, SF and Mary Lou are the only party directly identifying themselves with the campaign, and ML as a party leader pushing a Yes vote.

So I am wondering, has FGs push to get many "big social issues" sorted via referendum, also made it much easier for younger people to identify with SF, and subsequently make it more likely that they will vote with SF in future GE's ?
 


hammer

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Young people would only Vote SF IRA as they haven`t a clue as to how politics / economy etc work.
 

Dame_Enda

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Well supporting social liberalisation did not help the Labour Party during the Rainbow and Kenny-Gilmore-Burton govt, and in any case FG was able to take credit to some extent for it (though many of the TDs did not campaign). FF is perceived as having a leader who to some extent is out of step with his party on abortion and previously marriage equality. That undermines their ability to have a coherent message.

We dont have a history in this country of voting for political parties based on social/moral questions more so than bread and butter issues like the economy.
 

Hitchcock

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Young people would only Vote SF IRA as they haven`t a clue as to how politics / economy etc work.
It will be interesting to get your take on the coming coalition between FG and SF ;)
 

jmcc

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Micheal Martin's volte face over the issue indicates that there may be some in FF who would agree with this. Having Mary Lou as the face of the Yes campaign while Varadkar and Harris were too cowardly to campaign has given SF an advantage.
 

Prester Jim

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Young people would only Vote SF IRA as they haven`t a clue as to how politics / economy etc work.
So they might vote for SF or get a job as a FG minister with that resume.
 

Burnout

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I have a life.
Young people would only Vote SF IRA as they haven`t a clue as to how politics / economy etc work.
So should they vote Fine Fail then and just forget about their economics lol.
 

Analyzer

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What is the position of the Provisional Cult on murder, anyway ?

Is it justified, when the Provisional Cult says that it is justified ?
 

bokuden

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Young people would only Vote SF IRA as they haven`t a clue as to how politics / economy etc work.
Via gombeenism, corrjption and pandering to moneyed interests like landlords etc? While treating the young, poor, elderly and disabled like dirt? Like fg have done since the foundation of the state? Imo sf have done well out of this because varadkar was too lazy and cowardly to come out and push for repeal. Even michael martin outdid the lazy useless unelected taoiseach here. Id say progressive members of fg would not be happy with his ' performance'.
 

bokuden

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Micheal Martin's volte face over the issue indicates that there may be some in FF who would agree with this. Having Mary Lou as the face of the Yes campaign while Varadkar and Harris were too cowardly to campaign has given SF an advantage.
Good post.
 

michael-mcivor

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Young people would only Vote SF IRA as they haven`t a clue as to how politics / economy etc work.
Fine Gael will distance themselves from you as much as they can for saying young people have not got a clue about politics- it’s discrimination against the youth is what your at-
 

Analyzer

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Actually Rock of Cashel has a point.

SF and FG are both now working, in tandem to bring about a 32 county socialist republican hell hole, which will be about as free as the Latvia SSR was under the USSR.
 

Edo

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Hard to know really - might be -might be just coincidence.......economic reasons dictate General elections.

I know Sinn Fein doubled their number of seats in the GE 16 after the referendum in 16 -but so did Fianna Fail..........

In a way - maybe next years GE will test your proposition - and Sinn Feins gamble in putting Mary Lou front and centre................very Labour if you don't mind me saying so - tho if I was a betting man I think ML will do very well to hold what she inherited........
 

Disillusioned democrat

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A lot of those young people will have seen FG push home prices beyond their reach, so I imagine many WILL vote for someone else IF the next election is based somewhat on housing
 

Hitchcock

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Micheal Martin's volte face over the issue indicates that there may be some in FF who would agree with this. Having Mary Lou as the face of the Yes campaign while Varadkar and Harris were too cowardly to campaign has given SF an advantage.
That's a complete overstatement on all three counts IMO. MLMD has been fairly visible in the campaign but she certainly hasn't been the 'face' of the campaign by any stretch - the campaign came at the right time for her as she took over the leadership of SF and she has cleverly used it to her advantage.

Harris has been very visible, I believe he's on PT tonight, Varadkar perhaps not as much but in the last week he has been out quite a bit. No one figure has dominated the Yes side.
 

jmcc

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I know Sinn Fein doubled their number of seats in the GE 16 after the referendum in 16 -but so did Fianna Fail.
Two different things, Edo. FF was on a recovery bounce after being nearly demolished in 2011. SF was not on a recovery bounce but was gaining seats. The other factor is that there was a slight shift in the demographics of the electorate as more people became eligible to vote and some died. Those who became eligible to vote were typically born after the 1998 GFA so they don't have the effects of the brainwashing by anti-Irish scumbags like Eoghan Harris and his Stickie cronies in RTE. The influence of the Dublin media has also declined in that it sided with FG/Labour against the Irish people on the Water Tax scam. Fewer people buy a daily newspaper these days and RTE has problems in retaining viewers and listeners. More people, especially the younger demographics now get their news and opinions from the Internet. And SF moreso than FG and FF have a far more effective online presence.
 

bokuden

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That's a complete overstatement on all three counts IMO. MLMD has been fairly visible in the campaign but she certainly hasn't been the 'face' of the campaign by any stretch - the campaign came at the right time for her as she took over the leadership of SF and she has cleverly used it to her advantage.

Harris has been very visible, I believe he's on PT tonight, Varadkar perhaps not as much but in the last week he has been out quite a bit. No one figure has dominated the Yes side.
Mlm is the face of the campaign. Harris, to be fair, campaigned hard at first but the cervical screening scandal knocked it out of him.
 

Toland

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Micheal Martin's volte face over the issue indicates that there may be some in FF who would agree with this. Having Mary Lou as the face of the Yes campaign while Varadkar and Harris were too cowardly to campaign has given SF an advantage.
For heaven's sake, FG were the ones to hold the referendum.
 

PBP voter

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Young people tend to end up on the electoral role regardless.

The problem in Ireland is voters 18-35 rarely turnout. It down near the lowest in the OECD.

Half of young people in Ireland between 18-35 are below average intelligence. They offer the country nothing.

Who is better for Ireland? The Civil Engineer with the degree or Johnny the thick as pig ************************e labourer?
You never see John run for SF. Always somebody with a degree these days. petunia Even SF have realized you need educated people in the Dail. Not some yob who left school at 16.
 


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