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Has Nationalism in Northern Ireland Peaked? - Analysis of Election Results 2001-2010


Portstewart

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Plenty of talk on here about about how nationalism is on the march and a few marginal seats are only an election or two away from falling, analysis of the combined nationalist vote across the last 3 elections is interesting - it is either going backwards or growing at a snails pace.

North Belfast
2010 - 46.3%
2005 - 44.7%
2001 - 46.2%

South Belfast
2010 - 41%
2005 - 41.3%
2001 - 38.2% nb the Womens Coalition stood gaining 7.8% of the vote

Upper Bann
2010 - 37.4%
2005 - 34%
2001 - 36%

East Londonderry
2010 - 34.7%
2005 - 33.2%
2001 - 36.5%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone
2010 - 53.1%
2005 - 53%
2001 - 52.9%

North Antrim
2010 - 21.2%
2005 - 27.9%
2001 - 26.6%

West Tyrone
2010 - 62.4%
2005 - Keiren Deeny stood taking a large percentage of the vote
2001 - 69.5%

Newry and Armagh
2010 - 65.4%
2005 - 66.6%
2001 - 68.3%

Mid Ulster
2010 - 66.3%
2005 - 65%
2001 - 67.9%

I haven't bothered with the safest Unionist seats but it looks very much like the nationalist advance peaked in 2001 and is in reverse in most places, while still increasing by a trickle in other places like by rates of 0.1%, and certainly not anything like quick enough for major game changing outcomes.

If Unionism gets itself sorted out then the future is looking bright.

Do our resident nationalists have any explanation for this slump/reverse in the nationalist advance?
 


SideysGhost

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These numbers are meaningless without also giving the total number of votes cast and the turnout % in each constituency, in each election.

Why no mention in your "special factors" for some elections of the fact that in North Antrim Catholics last week voted for Junior to make sure that nutter Allister didn't get the seat?
 

Joopface

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These numbers are meaningless without also giving the total number of votes cast and the turnout % in each constituency, in each election.

Why no mention in your "special factors" for some elections of the fact that in North Antrim Catholics last week voted for Junior to make sure that nutter Allister didn't get the seat?
Of course they're not meaningless. What a mad thing to say. It's the % vote for nationalist parties in recent elections, of those votes cast. It's a real number, worthy of consideration in considering an increase or decrease of support. If there is an increase of support, it should manifest itself in activity - ie voting, no?
 

SideysGhost

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Of course they're not meaningless. What a mad thing to say. It's the % vote for nationalist parties in recent elections, of those votes cast. It's a real number, worthy of consideration in considering an increase or decrease of support. If there is an increase of support, it should manifest itself in activity - ie voting, no?
:rolleyes:

Obviously maths wasn't your strong point back in school, eh?

All we have is a list of percentages - but percentages of what?
 

dazzler

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No nationalism hasn't peaked. 2001 was a very good year for nationalism and nationalist turnout was very high. However westminster elections are seen less and less important by nationalists in each westminster election. The nationalist turnout was down 10% on 2005 and the share of the vote still grew to 42/42.5%.
 

Portstewart

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These numbers are meaningless without also giving the total number of votes cast and the turnout % in each constituency, in each election.

Why no mention in your "special factors" for some elections of the fact that in North Antrim Catholics last week voted for Junior to make sure that nutter Allister didn't get the seat?
As above it is the single best verometer for measuring how the nationalist vote is faring. If you want the rest go and dig it out and post it.
 

Portstewart

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:rolleyes:

Obviously maths wasn't your strong point back in school, eh?

All we have is a list of percentages - but percentages of what?
Percentage of the combined nationalist vote that is the percentage of votes in each constituency that were for SF and the SDLP. :rolleyes:
 

Portstewart

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No nationalism hasn't peaked. 2001 was a very good year for nationalism and nationalist turnout was very high. However westminster elections are seen less and less important by nationalists in each westminster election. The nationalist turnout was down 10% on 2005 and the share of the vote still grew to 42/42.5%.
Unionist turnout has fallen faster than nationalist from the belfast tele:

Nine years ago, 810,000 votes were cast in Northern Ireland - 68% of the electorate. In 2005, that figure dropped to 71,7000 - 62%. Today we are looking at a turnout of only 627,000 - 56.9%.

So how and where have 183,000 Ulster votes disappeared in less than a decade? The answer is simple. The DUP and UUP had nearly 400,000 supporters at the ballot box in 2001. Last week, they had only 270,000.

So despite the unionist turnout falling faster than nationalist, nationalism has still failed to make barely any inroads at all in terms of share of vote?

That must be alarming?
 

SideysGhost

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Percentage of the combined nationalist vote that is the percentage of votes in each constituency that were for SF and the SDLP. :rolleyes:
Another innumerate eejit I see.

Lookit, there may well be real evidence showing the nationalist vote has peaked. I don't know. All I know is that your little list of numbers simply does not provide enough data to make that call.

We need the total size of the electorate in each constituency, the total votes cast for each camp, the turnout %, and the full nationalist/unionist/other % breakdown before we would be able to make any sort of judgement based on solid analysis of the real full data set.
 

Portstewart

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Another innumerate eejit I see.

Lookit, there may well be real evidence showing the nationalist vote has peaked. I don't know. All I know is that your little list of numbers simply does not provide enough data to make that call.

We need the total size of the electorate in each constituency, the total votes cast for each camp, the turnout %, and the full nationalist/unionist/other % breakdown before we would be able to make any sort of judgement based on solid analysis of the real full data set.
What?

We are comparing the percentage share of the nationalist vote across 3 elections nothing more.
 

Amach na Casca

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The nationalist vote has gone up and will continue to go up in the future. How do I know this? Its called demographic change and it most definitely favours green over orange.

Westminister elections produce anomalies due to the FPTP system, such as tactical voting etc and as such come with a health warning.

The assembly elections are a truer show of support for each party and by extension for each tribe. The nationalist vote and seats have steadily gone up in each sucessive election over the last number of years. The nationalist block will almost certainly see their seats increase in the next election compared with '07.
 

cgcsb2

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Nov 2, 2008
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the nationalist vote, imo, is peeking, but hasn't peeked. It'll probably peek after North Belfast goes Green & possibly Upper Bann (especially with looming electoral reform) or East Derry, but by then overall nationalist vote could well be higher than overall unionist, too late I'm afraid.
 

Portstewart

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the nationalist vote, imo, is peeking, but hasn't peeked. It'll probably peek after North Belfast goes Green & possibly Upper Bann (especially with looming electoral reform) or East Derry, but by then overall nationalist vote could well be higher than overall unionist, too late I'm afraid.
You are absolutely miles away in Upper Bann and East Londonderry, and in North Belfast your vote has increased 0.1% in the last 9 years.

No chance will you ever get the first two and once Unionism gets itself sorted out you wont get North Belfast either, same with South Belfast.
 

Portstewart

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The nationalist vote has gone up and will continue to go up in the future. How do I know this? Its called demographic change and it most definitely favours green over orange.

Westminister elections produce anomalies due to the FPTP system, such as tactical voting etc and as such come with a health warning.

The assembly elections are a truer show of support for each party and by extension for each tribe. The nationalist vote and seats have steadily gone up in each sucessive election over the last number of years. The nationalist block will almost certainly see their seats increase in the next election compared with '07.
Demographic change:

http://www.politics.ie/northern-ireland/129068-nationalist-demographic-dreams-catholic-ulster-doomed.html

You want to post up the figures for the NI Assembly then?

Why has the nationalist vote fallen in the europeans?
 

Amach na Casca

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