Has the referendum changed party voting patterns with SF up and FF down?

jmcc

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The outcome of the referendum has upset many people and the polling companies got it wrong again by considerable margins. But there's a more interesting issue was that the B&A/RTE exit poll asked those surveyed about their voting preferences. Wascurito posted this like to the B&A/RTE exit poll:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DeISImtWAAI44Cg.jpg

The Don't Knows were at 24.9%.
FF was at 16.5%, FG at 25.8%, SF at 11.8%, Labour at 3.8%, SOL/PBP at 0.7%, Greens at 1.9% and Others at 11.1%.

If this B&A/RTE survey had been an ordinary one, its Margin of Error would have been lower (1.6%, I think) than the other typical polls. The problem with this B&A/RTE poll is that it is not a poll where the normal electorate was being surveyed. There were, according to reports, another 150K registered to vote in the run up to the referendum and there was a considerable number of "home to vote" voters who would not otherwise have been surveyed prior to the election.

The "home to vote" group is a problem for pollsters as they are electoral noise. They may have affected the outcome but they don't generally vote in the General Elections. They are not resident in Ireland and would not be picked up by face to face or telephone polling.

The claimed 150K new voters that were registered prior to the referendum are the most interesting group. Some of the pollsters such as RedC split their telephone polling between randomly dialed fixed line phone numbers and randomly dialed mobile phone numbers. The 150K voters seemed to be the product of Third Level campaigns to get people voting. Younger people are less likely to have fixed line telephones and are generally more likely to have a mobile phone. Thus the old 50:50 split for fixed line to mobile sampling is going to be in trouble because the number of fixed line voters has not increased at the same rate as the number if mobile voters.

If these 150K new voters do vote in the upcoming GE, they may significantly alter the political landscape for some of those depending on transfers to get a Dail seat. FF has had problems with support in the younger demographics. FG is not doing too badly. Labour is the Norwegian Blue of the group. Sinn Fein has strong support in the younger demographics.

Mary Lou McDonald was the only party leader to lead the Yes campaign. She was the only party political leader to have their image on a campaign poster. The other party leaders ran away. Brendan Who was nowhere to be seen. Varadkar was otherwise engaged sorting out his socks. Micheal Martin's party voted to support the No side but Martin betrayed his party. So will SF gain the support of most of these new voters?

FF is split on the issue of the referendum. Under Martin, it is going nowhere. SF, by comparison, presented a more unified front on this referendum and Mary Lou McDonald's media appearances effectively made her the leader of the Yes campaign. No matter how RTE tried to big up their irrelevant friends in Labour, the Labour Party was almost completely absent from this referendum campaign. It was strictly an SF,FG,FF affair with an FFer jumping on the Yes bandwagon while another FFer (Butler) tried to lead the No campaign.

Will SF get a boost from the outcome of the referendum in the next opinion poll?

Will FF suffer for its political opportunism?

Where will these 150K new voters end up and which parties will benefit?

Will SF become the second largest party replacing FF?
 


paddycomeback

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That was the purpose of "home to vote" create the impression of a vast influx of Yes voters to justify a big win after ballot box stuffing.
 

jmcc

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That was the purpose of "home to vote" create the impression of a vast influx of Yes voters to justify a big win after ballot box stuffing.
Not sure. But this is a kind of cultural shift with the "home to vote" thing being like a music festival rather than an election. It does attract people who want to be part of something. Not sure if it was ballot box stuffing but the entitlement to vote should be examined to ensure that only those entitled to vote can vote. Extending the frachise to those overseas is a good thing but it would result in many of the lifer Dailers being kicked out hence the reluctance to provide a referendum on the issue.
 

Dame_Enda

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There probably wont be a major "home to vote" operation in the next GE. 18-24 yr old voters tend to animated about social issues, but otherwise turn out at lower rates than older voters. Derek Scally wrote an article in 2015 in the Irish Times saying that Irish citizens resident abroad are legally not allowed to vote, but that he isnt aware of councils removing people from the register on grounds of non residency. https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/how-many-home-to-voters-were-actually-entitled-to-vote-1.2327420. I think had the referendum been very close, that the no side could have challenged the outcome on this basis.

If you remember the 2002 Abortion referendum (on removing the suicide grounds for abortion) was narrowly defeated by a strong youth turnout. But later in the year the government that proposed it gained around 12 seats. Incidentally I voted yes in that one and I still have some concerns about the suicide provision but always supported abortion for rape victims.
 
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hollandia

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That was the purpose of "home to vote" create the impression of a vast influx of Yes voters to justify a big win after ballot box stuffing.
Lets say the home to vote contingent (who also included no voters) didn't come. That does not cover the remaining five hundred and something thousand majority.
 

PO'Neill

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The outcome of the referendum has upset many people and the polling companies got it wrong again by considerable margins. But there's a more interesting issue was that the B&A/RTE exit poll asked those surveyed about their voting preferences. Wascurito posted this like to the B&A/RTE exit poll:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DeISImtWAAI44Cg.jpg

The Don't Knows were at 24.9%.
FF was at 16.5%, FG at 25.8%, SF at 11.8%, Labour at 3.8%, SOL/PBP at 0.7%, Greens at 1.9% and Others at 11.1%.

If this B&A/RTE survey had been an ordinary one, its Margin of Error would have been lower (1.6%, I think) than the other typical polls. The problem with this B&A/RTE poll is that it is not a poll where the normal electorate was being surveyed. There were, according to reports, another 150K registered to vote in the run up to the referendum and there was a considerable number of "home to vote" voters who would not otherwise have been surveyed prior to the election.

The "home to vote" group is a problem for pollsters as they are electoral noise. They may have affected the outcome but they don't generally vote in the General Elections. They are not resident in Ireland and would not be picked up by face to face or telephone polling.

The claimed 150K new voters that were registered prior to the referendum are the most interesting group. Some of the pollsters such as RedC split their telephone polling between randomly dialed fixed line phone numbers and randomly dialed mobile phone numbers. The 150K voters seemed to be the product of Third Level campaigns to get people voting. Younger people are less likely to have fixed line telephones and are generally more likely to have a mobile phone. Thus the old 50:50 split for fixed line to mobile sampling is going to be in trouble because the number of fixed line voters has not increased at the same rate as the number if mobile voters.

If these 150K new voters do vote in the upcoming GE, they may significantly alter the political landscape for some of those depending on transfers to get a Dail seat. FF has had problems with support in the younger demographics. FG is not doing too badly. Labour is the Norwegian Blue of the group. Sinn Fein has strong support in the younger demographics.

Mary Lou McDonald was the only party leader to lead the Yes campaign. She was the only party political leader to have their image on a campaign poster. The other party leaders ran away. Brendan Who was nowhere to be seen. Varadkar was otherwise engaged sorting out his socks. Micheal Martin's party voted to support the No side but Martin betrayed his party. So will SF gain the support of most of these new voters?

FF is split on the issue of the referendum. Under Martin, it is going nowhere. SF, by comparison, presented a more unified front on this referendum and Mary Lou McDonald's media appearances effectively made her the leader of the Yes campaign. No matter how RTE tried to big up their irrelevant friends in Labour, the Labour Party was almost completely absent from this referendum campaign. It was strictly an SF,FG,FF affair with an FFer jumping on the Yes bandwagon while another FFer (Butler) tried to lead the No campaign.

Will SF get a boost from the outcome of the referendum in the next opinion poll?

Will FF suffer for its political opportunism?

Where will these 150K new voters end up and which parties will benefit?

Will SF become the second largest party replacing FF?
Well maybe possibly a third of the 125,000 young people who registered may vote SF in a general election which would be 41,666 votes in theory. With 40 constituency's that could possibly be 1,041 new SF votes per constituency, which needless to say woud be a big factor in any constituency. Also there is the Mary Lou factor with Adams gone, already she is showing to be a much better debater on current issues and hasn't Adams past which was holding the party back. As for your questions -

Will SF get a boost from the outcome of the referendum in the next opinion poll? - I do't think it wil be that big, people's memories are short, the referendum will quickly fade.

Will FF suffer for its political opportunism? FF are slowly but surely sinking, the referendum showed they are more and more reliant on an older rural vote, a bit like the UUP in the north. The REAL fun and future of FF will start after the next general election when a considerable number of FF TD's will revolt as they won't want to stay without their snouts in the trough propping up FG as fake 'opposition' :) Can MM accept he will be the first FF leader never to be Taoiseach or has he to be shoved out !!!

Where will these 150K new voters end up and which parties will benefit? I can't put a number on it though the hired lairs are trying to make a hero out of Harris at the moment regarding the referendum (Harris the 'hero' was against the change until he sensed what way the political wind was blowing a few years ago) but the crisis of the cervical cancer tests will soon come back to haunt him.

Will SF become the second largest party replacing FF? It will take a few more general elections but FF are on the slide as stated.
 

jmcc

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Will FF suffer for its political opportunism? FF are slowly but surely sinking, the referendum showed they are more and more reliant on an older rural vote, a bit like the UUP in the north. The REAL fun and future of FF will start after the next general election when a considerable number of FF TD's will revolt as they won't want to stay without their snouts in the trough propping up FG as fake 'opposition' :) Can MM accept he will be the first FF leader never to be Taoiseach or has he to be shoved out !!!
There are talks locally of Butler being in trouble in the Waterford constituency. She seemed to be FF's anti-Mary Lou for the No side. Waterford voted 69.43% Yes and Butler has sided with Martin/FF against the city. The last Waterford politician who did that is no longer a TD. The Urban/Rural divide is quite stark with the referendum voting patterns with urban constituencies voting more strongly Yes.

Will SF become the second largest party replacing FF? It will take a few more general elections but FF are on the slide as stated.
SF's main issue at the moment isn't votes. It is candidates and infrastructure. FF still has a very strong local representation so it was able to weather being out of government far better than Labour (Labour lost council 81 seats and only won 51 seats. FF gained 49 seats to become the largest party at local level.)
 

automaticforthepeople

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The outcome of the referendum has upset many people and the polling companies got it wrong again by considerable margins. But there's a more interesting issue was that the B&A/RTE exit poll asked those surveyed about their voting preferences. Wascurito posted this like to the B&A/RTE exit poll:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DeISImtWAAI44Cg.jpg

The Don't Knows were at 24.9%.
FF was at 16.5%, FG at 25.8%, SF at 11.8%, Labour at 3.8%, SOL/PBP at 0.7%, Greens at 1.9% and Others at 11.1%.

If this B&A/RTE survey had been an ordinary one, its Margin of Error would have been lower (1.6%, I think) than the other typical polls. The problem with this B&A/RTE poll is that it is not a poll where the normal electorate was being surveyed. There were, according to reports, another 150K registered to vote in the run up to the referendum and there was a considerable number of "home to vote" voters who would not otherwise have been surveyed prior to the election.

The "home to vote" group is a problem for pollsters as they are electoral noise. They may have affected the outcome but they don't generally vote in the General Elections. They are not resident in Ireland and would not be picked up by face to face or telephone polling.

The claimed 150K new voters that were registered prior to the referendum are the most interesting group. Some of the pollsters such as RedC split their telephone polling between randomly dialed fixed line phone numbers and randomly dialed mobile phone numbers. The 150K voters seemed to be the product of Third Level campaigns to get people voting. Younger people are less likely to have fixed line telephones and are generally more likely to have a mobile phone. Thus the old 50:50 split for fixed line to mobile sampling is going to be in trouble because the number of fixed line voters has not increased at the same rate as the number if mobile voters.

If these 150K new voters do vote in the upcoming GE, they may significantly alter the political landscape for some of those depending on transfers to get a Dail seat. FF has had problems with support in the younger demographics. FG is not doing too badly. Labour is the Norwegian Blue of the group. Sinn Fein has strong support in the younger demographics.

Mary Lou McDonald was the only party leader to lead the Yes campaign. She was the only party political leader to have their image on a campaign poster. The other party leaders ran away. Brendan Who was nowhere to be seen. Varadkar was otherwise engaged sorting out his socks. Micheal Martin's party voted to support the No side but Martin betrayed his party. So will SF gain the support of most of these new voters?

FF is split on the issue of the referendum. Under Martin, it is going nowhere. SF, by comparison, presented a more unified front on this referendum and Mary Lou McDonald's media appearances effectively made her the leader of the Yes campaign. No matter how RTE tried to big up their irrelevant friends in Labour, the Labour Party was almost completely absent from this referendum campaign. It was strictly an SF,FG,FF affair with an FFer jumping on the Yes bandwagon while another FFer (Butler) tried to lead the No campaign.

Will SF get a boost from the outcome of the referendum in the next opinion poll?

Will FF suffer for its political opportunism?

Where will these 150K new voters end up and which parties will benefit?

Will SF become the second largest party replacing FF?
The only politician to turn up on my doorstep in Dublin was Brendan Howlin. The only party which has continuously and united against the 8th since 1981 was the Labour Party. In 1983 SF ignored the referendum using the cover that it didn't recognise Bunreacht Na h-Eiréann and deferred to the surviving members of the First Dáil on the matter.

The only politician who had anything to lose on the matter was Michéal Martin. Varadkar was nowhere despite the fact that I live an awful lot closer to Leo than Wexford, Leo never turned up on my door.

FG will benefit as people buy into the narative that Leo and Mr 66% Coveneny delivered the victory.
 

jmcc

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The only politician to turn up on my doorstep in Dublin was Brendan Howlin.
Was he lost? :)

The only party which has continuously and united against the 8th since 1981 was the Labour Party.
And others will benefit electorally because Labour has been wiped out.

The only politician who had anything to lose on the matter was Michéal Martin.
Martin has shown himself as an untrustworthy shít who was willing to betray his own party for his own electoral gain.

Varadkar was nowhere despite the fact that I live an awful lot closer to Leo than Wexford, Leo never turned up on my door.
Perhaps if you had changed your name to Trudeau, he'd have been beating a path to your door.

FG will benefit as people buy into the narative that Leo and Mr 66% Coveneny delivered the victory.
But they didn't. The reality is that FG fought a very poor campaign and Mary Lou was effectively the leader of the Yes campaign.
 

wombat

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Historically, the republican vote in a constituency had no alternative but to vote for FF. This was more important in some rural areas than in cities but in many city areas, the fight for seats was between FF and Labour, with FF winning. SF are taking a lot of what might have been soft FF votes in poorer areas of the cities but I expect that Labour will get their act together and start to compete again.
 

jmcc

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Historically, the republican vote in a constituency had no alternative but to vote for FF. This was more important in some rural areas than in cities but in many city areas, the fight for seats was between FF and Labour, with FF winning. SF are taking a lot of what might have been soft FF votes in poorer areas of the cities but I expect that Labour will get their act together and start to compete again.
Not so sure about Labour regaining votes. Basically they have been maggotised by middle class school teachers and their ilk so that they are no longer representative of the Left. Instead they largely represent a virtue signalling bunch who would not be found near poor people. Their virtue signalling has been the victim of a strategy of "embrace and extend" by the mainstream parties who have taken over many of the issues that were once identified with Labour. FF may claim to be republican on the basis of what some distant ancestor did in a war a hundred years ago. SF has a far more recent claim to fame in that respect. SF also has a Left of centre aspect with which FF would find it hard to compete. FF and SF need each other because they have more in common than either has with FG.
 

statsman

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On balance, Referendum voting tends to be stand-alone and has very little impact on GE voting. The one change I see here is that parties need to be aware of the fact that a lot of young women were politicised in this campaign.

On the specific question of party support, we do have some data, funnily enough. Bad news for FF and Lab, good news for FG, meh for SF.



With thanks to Wascurito.
 

jmcc

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If SF does manage to overtake FF in the next opinion poll and that advantage carries over to the GE, then could there be a potential SF/FF government after the next GE with SF being the senior partner?

How would SF supporters and FF supporters react to such a possibility?
 

Tawdy

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If SF does manage to overtake FF in the next opinion poll and that advantage carries over to the GE, then could there be a potential SF/FF government after the next GE with SF being the senior partner?

How would SF supporters and FF supporters react to such a possibility?



Unbridled joy ? FF and SF = (FF LITE ) petunia
 

Dasayev

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Young voters need a specific issue to get them out to vote. In Britain, Clegg and Corbyn promised the young cheaper access to university, and that seemed to work for both of those leaders.

So a template is there, for which ever party, to try to get that demographic out at General Election time.
 

bokuden

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Young voters need a specific issue to get them out to vote. In Britain, Clegg and Corbyn promised the young cheaper access to university, and that seemed to work for both of those leaders.

So a template is there, for which ever party, to try to get that demographic out at General Election time.
Fg are shagged so. They despise the young as they are not of the rentier class.
 

Maranatha

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That was the purpose of "home to vote" create the impression of a vast influx of Yes voters to justify a big win after ballot box stuffing.
Without question. The purpose of the FAKE polls too was to prepare the public for a "Yes" Vote. I don't understand why the Pro-life Campaign have not questioned the so called results. Did they not conduct their own polls so that they can confirm?
 

Burnout

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I have a life.
Do'nt think this generation are going to party vote slavishly to keep gombeen politicians who bankrupted their parents and feckked up most of their opportunities, in high salaries and pensions. they know they were feckked over and will have little or no loyalty to 'pillar parties'.
 

bokuden

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Historically, the republican vote in a constituency had no alternative but to vote for FF. This was more important in some rural areas than in cities but in many city areas, the fight for seats was between FF and Labour, with FF winning. SF are taking a lot of what might have been soft FF votes in poorer areas of the cities but I expect that Labour will get their act together and start to compete again.
Given your predictions on the referendum and your dislike of women in fg who are actually the future of the party, i'd take your predictions with a huge heap of salt.
 


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