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Has US backing of Georgia prompted a breakup of Ukraine?

McDave

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With the US giving political signals to Georgia to "resolve" "its" internal issues, and the resulting failure of Saakashvili's blunt military approach, have the Russians been backed into a corner on the Crimea and "Russian" Ukraine?

While US and EU foreign offices have been at pains to keep Georgia and the Ukraine at arms length on NATO membership, some intemperate Western political leaders have been tactically stoking the issue up. But looking at the endgame right at the beginning, who realistically believes the Russian Navy in the Crimea can end up in NATO territory?

Should the West be backing off on (i) the "perfectly-formed-little-democracy" rhetoric on Georgia and (ii) offers of NATO membership to everyone who hates Russia, before a real East/West border issue flares up within the Ukraine?
 


Joined
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Re: Has US backing of Georgia prompted a breakup of the Ukraine?

McDave said:
lowtaxireland said:
No- quite the opposite.
Pray tell. How?
My meaning is that the West needs to be resolute and firm. They should allow Georgia and Ukraine into Nato if they want to enter, and they should not be pushed around by Russia. Russia is calcuating (thusfar correctly) that the West does not have the backbone to face them down on this or take any serious risks for the likes of Georgia. if they are this agressive now, it will get even worse as time passes and they can continue to build up their army. Now they are militarily weak and they know it- if a move has to be made, then now is the time.
 

bogtrotter

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Re: Has US backing of Georgia prompted a breakup of the Ukraine?

How can the West make any military moves on Russia without facing the consequences....It is silly and stupid to assume that Russia is weak at this moment in time...Russia like the USA has weapons of mass destruction, enough to destroy one another many times over.....A confrontation betweenh Russia or the USA would hasten the end of the world as we know it.....

Russia must be allowed to protect Russian interests in the same way as the USA protects theirs.....taking sides in this conflict of interests is not in the best interest of Europeans ...There can only be losers, no winners.....Lets use diplomacy and tact as a means of moving forward in these dangerous times....there are no good guys in this conflict of interests.

The Russians and the Americans must come to terms with their military strenghts and accept that power and strength brings responsibilities....We the little people must keep our distance but at the same time remind the super powers of their responsibilities.
 

McDave

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Re: Has US backing of Georgia prompted a breakup of the Ukraine?

lowtaxireland said:
McDave said:
lowtaxireland said:
No- quite the opposite.
Pray tell. How?
My meaning is that the West needs to be resolute and firm. They should allow Georgia and Ukraine into Nato if they want to enter, and they should not be pushed around by Russia. Russia is calcuating (thusfar correctly) that the West does not have the backbone to face them down on this or take any serious risks for the likes of Georgia. if they are this agressive now, it will get even worse as time passes and they can continue to build up their army. Now they are militarily weak and they know it- if a move has to be made, then now is the time.
OK! It's an argument.

Wasn't the West aggressive though in allowing all those eastern EU and NATO accessions in the last years (which I actually have nothing against)? Aren't the West being especially aggressive in sponsoring for NATO membership countries with substantial Russian or pro-Russian populations (esp. Ukraine)? Isn't the West simply precipitating splits in those countries which could lead to civil wars, if not outright takeover by the Russians? Remember parts of Ukraine were part of Russia proper for a couple of hundred years.
 

Vega1447

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5,685
Re: Has US backing of Georgia prompted a breakup of the Ukraine?

lowtaxireland said:
McDave said:
lowtaxireland said:
No- quite the opposite.
Pray tell. How?
My meaning is that the West needs to be resolute and firm. They should allow Georgia and Ukraine into Nato if they want to enter, and they should not be pushed around by Russia. Russia is calcuating (thusfar correctly) that the West does not have the backbone to face them down on this or take any serious risks for the likes of Georgia. if they are this agressive now, it will get even worse as time passes and they can continue to build up their army. Now they are militarily weak and they know it- if a move has to be made, then now is the time.
Hey lowtax, if Ireland join NATO ("resolute and firm", eh??) you can say bye to low taxes.

Or are you just a NATO groupie?

"The West needs to do ...."

Do you mean the US, Britain, France????? With little Ireland cheering them on?
 
Joined
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Messages
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Re: Has US backing of Georgia prompted a breakup of the Ukraine?

bogtrotter said:
How can the West make any military moves on Russia without facing the consequences....It is silly and stupid to assume that Russia is weak at this moment in time...Russia like the USA has weapons of mass destruction, enough to destroy one another many times over.....A confrontation betweenh Russia or the USA would hasten the end of the world as we know it.....

Russia must be allowed to protect Russian interests in the same way as the USA protects theirs.....taking sides in this conflict of interests is not in the best interest of Europeans ...There can only be losers, no winners.....Lets use diplomacy and tact as a means of moving forward in these dangerous times....there are no good guys in this conflict of interests.

The Russians and the Americans must come to terms with their military strenghts and accept that power and strength brings responsibilities....We the little people must keep our distance but at the same time remind the super powers of their responsibilities.
Fair enough...use diplomacy...great....I am all for that. So what if they make more demands ad get aggressive toward EU members? What then?
 
Joined
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Messages
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Re: Has US backing of Georgia prompted a breakup of the Ukraine?

Vega1447 said:
lowtaxireland said:
McDave said:
lowtaxireland said:
No- quite the opposite.
Pray tell. How?
My meaning is that the West needs to be resolute and firm. They should allow Georgia and Ukraine into Nato if they want to enter, and they should not be pushed around by Russia. Russia is calcuating (thusfar correctly) that the West does not have the backbone to face them down on this or take any serious risks for the likes of Georgia. if they are this agressive now, it will get even worse as time passes and they can continue to build up their army. Now they are militarily weak and they know it- if a move has to be made, then now is the time.
Hey lowtax, if Ireland join NATO ("resolute and firm", eh??) you can say bye to low taxes.

Or are you just a NATO groupie?

"The West needs to do ...."

Do you mean the US, Britain, France????? With little Ireland cheering them on?
I meant the West in the sense that Russia means it....NATO.
I do not recall being a cheerleader for nato....in fact, I would oppose ireland joining it.....it makes more sense to be freeloaders for the time being....
 
Joined
Sep 4, 2006
Messages
26
Re: Has US backing of Georgia prompted a breakup of the Ukraine?

McDave said:
lowtaxireland said:
McDave said:
lowtaxireland said:
No- quite the opposite.
Pray tell. How?
My meaning is that the West needs to be resolute and firm. They should allow Georgia and Ukraine into Nato if they want to enter, and they should not be pushed around by Russia. Russia is calcuating (thusfar correctly) that the West does not have the backbone to face them down on this or take any serious risks for the likes of Georgia. if they are this agressive now, it will get even worse as time passes and they can continue to build up their army. Now they are militarily weak and they know it- if a move has to be made, then now is the time.
OK! It's an argument.

Wasn't the West aggressive though in allowing all those eastern EU and NATO accessions in the last years (which I actually have nothing against)? Aren't the West being especially aggressive in sponsoring for NATO membership countries with substantial Russian or pro-Russian populations (esp. Ukraine)? Isn't the West simply precipitating splits in those countries which could lead to civil wars, if not outright takeover by the Russians? Remember parts of Ukraine were part of Russia proper for a couple of hundred years.
Those countries chose to accede...that was not agression. It makes no difference whether the other conturies have Russian populations or not- if they want to join then that's their sovereign decision. If they don't want to join, that is also their sovereign decision. I am not sure how it will pan out, but I know that the Russians will take as much as they can or as much as they are let get away with....
 

seabhcan

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The borders of the ex-soviet states are arbitrary and should be withdrawn. There are millions of Russians in Ukraine. They form the majority in both Crimea and <delete>west</delete> east Ukraine. In Crimea the Ukrainians form only 15% of the population.

Why can't borders be redrawn, subject to local referenda?

I see absolutely no reason for the people of Abkhazia to be forced to join Georgia. They are not Georgian, never were Georgian, and don't want to be Georgian.

It amazes me that Irish people would not support the rights of other nationalities to self determination.
 

Pauli

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Sep 22, 2006
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seabhcan said:
The borders of the ex-soviet states are arbitrary and should be withdrawn. There are millions of Russians in Ukraine. They form the majority in both Crimea and west Ukraine. In Crimea the Ukrainians form only 15% of the population.

Why can't borders be redrawn, subject to local referenda?

I see absolutely no reason for the people of Abkhazia to be forced to join Georgia. They are not Georgian, never were Georgian, and don't want to be Georgian.

It amazes me that Irish people would not support the rights of other nationalities to self determination.
Don't expect too much logic from the neo-con nutters on this site. They can only spout Bush/Cheney propaganda like robots. If Georgia and Ukraine apply for NATO membership, they will not get it. There are more than enough countries to oppose it. Germany for a start.

If the US persists in forcing this agenda, the Russians will do what is necessary to oppose it.
 

Sligoboy

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seabhcan said:
The borders of the ex-soviet states are arbitrary and should be withdrawn. There are millions of Russians in Ukraine. They form the majority in both Crimea and west Ukraine. In Crimea the Ukrainians form only 15% of the population.

Why can't borders be redrawn, subject to local referenda?

I see absolutely no reason for the people of Abkhazia to be forced to join Georgia. They are not Georgian, never were Georgian, and don't want to be Georgian.

It amazes me that Irish people would not support the rights of other nationalities to self determination.
They are trying to make vacuous comparisons with the situation in the north portraying Russia as the big bad Brits and the Georgians as the meagre Irish having a portion of their territory invaded and annexed
 

cferrie

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Jun 16, 2008
Messages
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Sligoboy said:
seabhcan said:
The borders of the ex-soviet states are arbitrary and should be withdrawn. There are millions of Russians in Ukraine. They form the majority in both Crimea and west Ukraine. In Crimea the Ukrainians form only 15% of the population.

Why can't borders be redrawn, subject to local referenda?

I see absolutely no reason for the people of Abkhazia to be forced to join Georgia. They are not Georgian, never were Georgian, and don't want to be Georgian.

It amazes me that Irish people would not support the rights of other nationalities to self determination.
They are trying to make vacuous comparisons with the situation in the north portraying Russia as the big bad Brits and the Georgians as the meagre Irish having a portion of their territory invaded and annexed
No they are simply respecting the integrity of internationally recognised borders. The balkanisation of the Caucasus and other former Soviet states is in nobody's interest as it can only serve to destabilise an already difficult situation.

To compare EU expansion with NATO expansion and to characterise it as an agressive act is not correct. I agree that NATO's actions with regard to Ukraine and Georgia are partly to blame for the current situation but then I believe that NATO is a "dinosaur, a relic of the cold war" (to steal a phrase). The EU has the potential to be a force for good in creating closer diplomatic and economic ties with Russia. You can't build a lasting relationship on mistrust and threats of violence.
 

seabhcan

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cferrie said:
The EU has the potential to be a force for good in creating closer diplomatic and economic ties with Russia. You can't build a lasting relationship on mistrust and threats of violence.
Exactly. EU leaders (Miliband) and Nato need to stop threatening Russia. And Ireland in particular needs to keep our head down and stop condemning Russia for protecting its people. Georgia, a poor country run by a US citizen that spends 70% of the national budget on buying US arms, was clearly in the wrong, and if Ireland couldn't openly support them we should shut the hell up.
 

UA

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seabhcan said:
The borders of the ex-soviet states are arbitrary and should be withdrawn. There are millions of Russians in Ukraine. They form the majority in both Crimea and west Ukraine. In Crimea the Ukrainians form only 15% of the population.
I would like to correct you a bit: the Russians don't form any majority in west Ukraine.
The Russians and the Ukrainians with Russian language, as their mother tongue, populate mostly south and east of the Ukraine, not west.
Ukrainian west is (and always was) ultra-nationalistic. Whole last century they’ve been forming different irregular so called “armies” and organisations, like UNA, UPA etc to fight first Poland and later Russia.
They joined a fascists’ side at first years of WWII seeking for Hitler’s help in that business: Ukrainian SS division “Galitchina” and police battalion “Nachtigal”, both formed in the western Ukraine, are the most known examples of that collaboration.
Using mostly guerrilla and terror tactic, the Ukrainian nationalists failed in 30-s against Poland, leaving about 160,000 Polish civilian dead, they failed in 40-s, being “betrayed” by Germans and defeated by Red Army, they failed and were totally disarmed and pacified in late 50-s by USSR, leaving around 15 000 Ukrainian civilians and 3 000 of Soviet officials and soldiers dead.
But hey won today! Mr. Yuschenko, heavily promoted by the West as a greatest democrat, is one of their descendents. He is an Ukrainian nationalist and the heaviest promoter of “Ukraine for Ukrainians” idea.
Thus, answering those guys, who stated: “if Ukraine want to join NATO let them join…”:

The Ukraine, as the geographical place populated by Ukrainians, Russians, Jews and hundreds of other nationalities – doesn’t want to be any military block member, especially NATO. The latest polls show about 55 to 67% of opposing that idea. There too many people are still alive in Ukraine, who remembers how they and their relatives have been killed for ages by now-days NATO members: Poland, Germany, Romania, Turkey, and Hungary… And the rescuer in all those situations was only one: Russia.
But the Ukraine, as a state, ruled by current leaders, probably will become a NATO member. Because our “democratic” government doesn’t care what people think. The appeal to join NATO has been made just by three high-rank officials, including President, year ago yet. Which led to a huge social anger, blockage of Ukrainian parliament and paralysed Ukrainian political life for months. Those three stepped back and called back their appeal. Now they play same card again, having a new pretext and old enemies and supporters.
Once it happened, the Ukraine break up in two parts would be highly possible if not inevitable

Sorry for poor English... :oops:
 

seabhcan

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UA said:
seabhcan said:
The borders of the ex-soviet states are arbitrary and should be withdrawn. There are millions of Russians in Ukraine. They form the majority in both Crimea and west Ukraine. In Crimea the Ukrainians form only 15% of the population.
I would like to correct you a bit: the Russians don't form any majority in west Ukraine.
isventete, I meant east Ukraine, not west.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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Russia is already handing out Russian passports in Crimea to provide a pretext for military intervention there. Expect similar claims of 'genocide' here when the lease of Sevastopol by the Russian Black Sea fleet runs out. The Chair of the Duma CIS affairs committee and the Mayor of Moscow are both calling for Crimea to be returned to Russia. Let's not blame the victim here, as the starter of this thread seems to be attempting to do. :roll:
 

UA

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seabhcan said:
UA said:
seabhcan said:
The borders of the ex-soviet states are arbitrary and should be withdrawn. There are millions of Russians in Ukraine. They form the majority in both Crimea and west Ukraine. In Crimea the Ukrainians form only 15% of the population.
I would like to correct you a bit: the Russians don't form any majority in west Ukraine.
isventete, I meant east Ukraine, not west.
Isvenyayu :D
No problem at all. I'm a bit like a dog: In English, I can understand more than I can say ;)
Your posts, apart of being very logic and well reasoned, show very deep knowledge in areas, - geographical, historical (and even language :shock: ) - about which an average Westerner never cares. Thank you. :)
 

seabhcan

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FutureTaoiseach said:
Russia is already handing out Russian passports in Crimea to provide a pretext for military intervention there. Expect similar claims of 'genocide' here when the lease of Sevastopol by the Russian Black Sea fleet runs out. The Chair of the Duma CIS affairs committee and the Mayor of Moscow are both calling for Crimea to be returned to Russia. Let's not blame the victim here, as the starter of this thread seems to be attempting to do. :roll:
Ireland has been handing out passports in Northern Ireland and even England for half a century. Is that a pretext?
 


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