• It has come to our attention that some users may have been "banned" when they tried to change their passwords after the site was hacked due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software. This would have occurred around the end of February and does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you believe you were affected by this, please contact a staff member or use the Contact us link at the bottom of any forum page.

Heads up: Fresh LucidTalk poll out next week


factual

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
Heads up: a fresh lucid talk party support tracking poll is due out week beginning 3rd December.

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk

"Great response at our stand at #DUP12 conference. All waiting for next @BelTel poll w/b 3/12."
The last poll showed a growing of the Alliance party at the expense of the SDLP.

Watch Belfast Telegraph. Lucid Talk is a polling organisation north of the border. It is a member of the British Polling Council, a quality kitemark for polls.

The last Lucid Talk poll (May 2012) had the following results:

DUP 30.7
SF 28
UUP 11
SDLP 12.5
All 10.9
Green 3.7

These results were widely seen as poor for the SDLP and UUP in particular. It will be interesting to see which party has had the best second-half of 2012.

My feeling is that SF on the one hand and DUP on the other have - despite the gloomy world economic conditions - run a fairly successful government over the last 6 months and that they whill show no loss of support to SDLP and UUP in next weeks poll.
 
Last edited:

FitzjamesHorse

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
379
Website
fitzjameshorselooksattheworld.wordpress.com
Twitter
FitzjamesHorse
Hasnt Gerry Lynch a former Alliance staffer and Westminster candidate a role in Lucid Talk.
Met Lucid Talk people at SDLP Conference two weeks ago and they gave me a nice glossy brochure with no less than eighteen articles by Liam Clarke, political editor of Belfast Telegraph.....thats EIGHTEEN.
Plus endorsements from Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole "leading political blog" (sic) and a radio shock jock called Stephen Nolan
 

FitzjamesHorse

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
379
Website
fitzjameshorselooksattheworld.wordpress.com
Twitter
FitzjamesHorse
Heads up: a fresh lucid talk party support tracking poll is due out week beginning 3rd December.

https://twitter.com/LucidTalk



The last poll showed a growing of the Alliance party at the expense of the SDLP.

Watch Belfast Telegraph. Lucid Talk is a polling organisation north of the border. It is a member of the British Polling Council, a quality kitemark for polls.

The last Lucid Talk poll (May 2012) had the following results:

DUP 30.7
SF 28
UUP 11
SDLP 12.5
All 10.9
Green 3.7

These results were widely seen as poor for the SDLP and UUP in particular. It will be interesting to see which party has had the best second-half of 2012.

My feeling is that SF on the one hand and DUP on the other have - despite the gloomy world economic conditions - run a fairly successful government over the last 6 months and that they whill show no loss of support to SDLP and UUP in next weeks poll.
Dont really need an opinion poll then. Your "feeling" is good enough for me.
 

RedCloud

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 1, 2012
Messages
2,998
Hasnt Gerry Lynch a former Alliance staffer and Westminster candidate a role in Lucid Talk.
Met Lucid Talk people at SDLP Conference two weeks ago and they gave me a nice glossy brochure with no less than eighteen articles by Liam Clarke, political editor of Belfast Telegraph.....thats EIGHTEEN.
Plus endorsements from Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole "leading political blog" (sic) and a radio shock jock called Stephen Nolan[/QUOTE

This chap has a serious boner for Mick Fealty :)
 

physicist

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
6,274
Hi FJH. The poll will provide quantitative evidence for the purposes of empirical validation. My own feeling is subjective.
I trust Red C polls more myself, but I suspect a few Sinn Féin activists may believe they are in the pocket of Fianna Fáil these days.
 

factual

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
I trust Red C polls more myself, but I suspect a few Sinn Féin activists may believe they are in the pocket of Fianna Fáil these days.
Unfortunately those ones cover the south only; it is the Lucid Talk poll that is the 'go to' poll for north of the border.
 

physicist

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
6,274
Unfortunately those ones cover the south only; it is the Lucid Talk poll that is the 'go to' poll for north of the border.
By the looks of things they don't cover the West of the North either.
 

Glaucon

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 13, 2012
Messages
8,325
SF and the DUP will hold steady (but then, they'd hold steady whatever happened due to the tribal divide). I expect Alliance and the SDLP to do better than in recent times; the UUP is a disaster and will continue to sink.

The only leader I have any respect for is David Ford, who at least appears to be trying to work ahead with a shared agenda and listening to all sides. The biggest thing SF and the DUP were whinging about yesterday was people not turning up to ask their questions at Stormont (Marty even wants disciplinary action taken against abstentionists - the irony!); Jim Allister made the cogent point that he had been waiting for up to 16 months for answers to some of his questions from the FM/DFM - their outrage seemed in short supply there.
 

factual

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
SF and the DUP will hold steady (but then, they'd hold steady whatever happened due to the tribal divide). I expect Alliance and the SDLP to do better than in recent times; the UUP is a disaster and will continue to sink.

The only leader I have any respect for is David Ford, who at least appears to be trying to work ahead with a shared agenda and listening to all sides. The biggest thing SF and the DUP were whinging about yesterday was people not turning up to ask their questions at Stormont (Marty even wants disciplinary action taken against abstentionists - the irony!); Jim Allister made the cogent point that he had been waiting for up to 16 months for answers to some of his questions from the FM/DFM - their outrage seemed in short supply there.
Though I do not agree with his politics at all, and though he is very opposed to SF, Jim Allister adds a certain edginess to the debates that sometimes makes the debates less boring.
 

factual

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
Not sure if Gerry Lynch - who is now one of the team over at Slugger Central - is reading this but it would be useful if Lucidtalk polls could track support for a UI (among each of Protestants, Other, and Catholic) so that trends can be detected over time going forward.
 

factual

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
By the looks of things they don't cover the West of the North either.
I think it depends on the poll. The poll that came out today was commissioned by the Conservative Party, and they asked for a sub area to be polled.
 

FitzjamesHorse

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
379
Website
fitzjameshorselooksattheworld.wordpress.com
Twitter
FitzjamesHorse
Not sure if Gerry Lynch - who is now one of the team over at Slugger Central - is reading this but it would be useful if Lucidtalk polls could track support for a UI (among each of Protestants, Other, and Catholic) so that trends can be detected over time going forward.
I dont know if Gerry Lynch is actually at Slugger Central.
But Slugger seem to have an odd sense of news values.
Nothing as yet about a TUV Councillor jailed today.....but had he had even a relative in Sinn Féin (Slugger passim) there would be a few threads by now.
 

factual

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
I dont know if Gerry Lynch is actually at Slugger Central.
But Slugger seem to have an odd sense of news values.
Nothing as yet about a TUV Councillor jailed today.....but had he had even a relative in Sinn Féin (Slugger passim) there would be a few threads by now.
Hi FJH: what did you make of Slugger's take - A politically Orphaned Catholic Middle Class - on the latest LucidTalk poll?
 
Last edited:

factual

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
It looks like it won't be the West.
It wasn't. The area that was polled for the Conservatives was essentially Greater Belfast. However the party support polls that are coming out next week i believe are done through the six counties. Gerry Lynch is pretty highly regarded in political/analysis circles and understands the importance of appropriate stratified sampling methodology.
 

FitzjamesHorse

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
379
Website
fitzjameshorselooksattheworld.wordpress.com
Twitter
FitzjamesHorse
Hi FJH: what did you make of Slugger's take - A politically Orphaned Catholic Middle Class - on the latest LucidTalk poll?
Ididnt make anything of it.
Just deja vu.
The Tories trying to test the water. Probably with the encouragement of local Tories like Trevor Ringland and Felicity Houston (née McCormick) and the results might well be looked at closely by Basil McCrea who I believe was a guest of Lagan Valley Conservatives some weeks ago.
As has been noted, the poll was conducted in some (but not all) County Antrim and County Down constituencies......so Tories will be ignoring anything beyond the Belfast suburbs.
Who are these Catholic conservatives voting for now? Well Id presume the Alliance Party is the nearest alternative more so since people who stood under the Tory banner (Harry Hamilton, Paula Bradshaw and Ian Parsley) in 2010 defected to the Alliance Party.
Theres a slight dilemna here....building up the so called middle ground by bringing in the Conservative Party CAN make taht ground a little crowded........such as the Womens Coalition doing Alliance some damage a decade ago.
While not exactly being a Conservative, I am fully supportive of anything that damages the Alliance Party.
 

physicist

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
6,274
Ididnt make anything of it.
Just deja vu.

The Tories trying to test the water. Probably with the encouragement of local Tories like Trevor Ringland and Felicity Houston (née McCormick) and the results might well be looked at closely by Basil McCrea who I believe was a guest of Lagan Valley Conservatives some weeks ago.

As has been noted, the poll was conducted in some (but not all) County Antrim and County Down constituencies......so Tories will be ignoring anything beyond the Belfast suburbs.

Who are these Catholic conservatives voting for now? Well Id presume the Alliance Party is the nearest alternative more so since people who stood under the Tory banner (Harry Hamilton, Paula Bradshaw and Ian Parsley) in 2010 defected to the Alliance Party.
Theres a slight dilemna here....building up the so called middle ground by bringing in the Conservative Party CAN make taht ground a little crowded........such as the Womens Coalition doing Alliance some damage a decade ago.

While not exactly being a Conservative, I am fully supportive of anything that damages the Alliance Party.
The middle class Catholics in Belfast generally vote SDLP, and judging by Paula Bradshaw's performance against Alasdair McDonnell the Conservatives are not a threat to them in that department. That's not to say there is not a growing middle class Catholic demographic for Sinn Féin in Belfast either. In the East, I'd imagine a fair proportion of middle class Catholics vote Alliance.

The Conservatives are in real danger of falling into the trap of putting polling before meeting people.
 

factual

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
Ididnt make anything of it.
Just deja vu.
The Tories trying to test the water. Probably with the encouragement of local Tories like Trevor Ringland and Felicity Houston (née McCormick) and the results might well be looked at closely by Basil McCrea who I believe was a guest of Lagan Valley Conservatives some weeks ago.
As has been noted, the poll was conducted in some (but not all) County Antrim and County Down constituencies......so Tories will be ignoring anything beyond the Belfast suburbs.
Who are these Catholic conservatives voting for now? Well Id presume the Alliance Party is the nearest alternative more so since people who stood under the Tory banner (Harry Hamilton, Paula Bradshaw and Ian Parsley) in 2010 defected to the Alliance Party.
Theres a slight dilemna here....building up the so called middle ground by bringing in the Conservative Party CAN make taht ground a little crowded........such as the Womens Coalition doing Alliance some damage a decade ago.
While not exactly being a Conservative, I am fully supportive of anything that damages the Alliance Party.
Ian Parsley was thought to have done a good job in the EU election for Alliance and it will be interesting to see how Alliance do next time by comparison.

The Tories will also be fielding their own candidate, as will UKIP, and the Green Party have selected a very good candidate - a former Treasury economist - so the field will be more crowded than ususal.

Sinn Féin's Martina Anderson should be able to build on Barbre de Brun's performances and improve SF vote share. At some point SF will want to think about 2 candidates for Europe north of the border but probably not this time out. Next week's Lucidtalk poll will be interesting to watch in this context.
 

FitzjamesHorse

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
379
Website
fitzjameshorselooksattheworld.wordpress.com
Twitter
FitzjamesHorse
The middle class Catholics in Belfast generally vote SDLP, and judging by Paula Bradshaw's performance against Alasdair McDonnell the Conservatives are not a threat to them in that department. That's not to say there is not a growing middle class Catholic demographic for Sinn Féin in Belfast either. In the East, I'd imagine a fair proportion of middle class Catholics vote Alliance.

The Conservatives are in real danger of falling into the trap of putting polling before meeting people.
Important not to assume that middle class Catholic means "conservative" or "not nationalist".
 
Top