Herd immunity policy in the UK against Covid-19

Dearghoul

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Dynamite story in Sunday Times today. Says Dominic Cummings is behind the herd immunity policy.

Anyone with half a brain knew that that was Cummings Enda.

This was because, like intangible and unprovable concepts like Fukuyamas end of history schtick, it has the Cummings trademark of just enough obscurity to deter the casual enquirer from going further, enough force to be declared as the solution down at Wetherspoons, and doesn't cost money.

It was taken as read that it was the work of the Gollum from early on in this thread, and once again your remarkable revelation fails to leave us awestruck.

Closer reading of what people had to say about 'Herd Immunity' in relation to Cummings in this parish would have better prepared you for this earth shattering revelation.
 


Dearghoul

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What do you see when you look at Cummings, by the way?

Is it Evil incarnate in a minor form or is that just me?

What I mean by 'minor form' is demonic, but not the overall architect, a minor divil, maybe like Berith or Verrine, troublesome quarrelsome and harmful in equal measures but without any affect on the grand scheme of things, which, naturally troubles him greatly.

There I've come over all religious now.

Apologies to those of a sceptical disposition, but sometimes you have to reach into the mythology you grew up with to characterise something as offensive as this yoke.
 
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JacquesHughes

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UK Government is Still Dragging it's Feet

The UK government's response has been inadequate, described as gradualist. Dr Banerjee of UCL observes ( in today's FT) that the government is pursuing partial suppression with non-mandatory advice advocating population wide social distancing, home isolation of cases and their families, and [partial] closures of schools, and [full] closures of universities.

He and colleagues in their modelling study advise 'more stringent measures'.

The sorry story of this includes optimism that the UK was 'behind' Italy by weeks, suspicion of COBRA, a misunderstanding of 'herd immunity' ( NB never actually proclaimed as Britain's policy), and much minimising propaganda, 'effects similar to seasonal flu' etc, and possibly, a dislike of following 'Europe's lead'.

Newspapers yesterday reported that at a COBRA meeting on 12-3-20 Imperial College epidemiologists presented modelling that concluded between 250 ,000 and 1 million excess deaths would result if policy was continued.

Johnson suddenly saw what his place in history would be.

Schools however were only closed on Friday 20-3-20, and that step immediately undermined by reopening them to take in 'the vulnerable' and children of 'key workers' ( neither group well defined).
This is a complete dog's dinner.
 

Sync

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It's a good article with direct quotes.


Johnson's been inexcusably weak, but the fundamental error on the speed of transfer (Which the rest of the world was aligned on) wasn't the government's by all accounts.


Under Sir Patrick’s initial modelling, the disease would be controlled so that it remained manageable for the NHS; a peak would be achieved in early summer. After this, thanks to population immunity, it would tail off and not recur at any scale next winter.
Last week, the scientists changed their advice, warning that the virus was accelerating and more cases than expected would end up in swamped hospitals. Research from Imperial College London warned that, if the government continued with its “mitigation strategy”, 250,000 could die.
Catherine Calderwood, Scotland’s chief medical officer, agreed that scientists had underestimated the speed of spread and that they had previously estimated that one person might infect two to three others. “It’s more than that, maybe four, maybe five, maybe six,” she said. “That explosion of cases is likely to be accelerating more rapidly than we realised.”
Mr Cummings was quick to agree with the sharply revised scientific view that much more aggressive suppression measures were needed, to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed. The idea of “herd immunity” was banished. Under the harsher suppression strategy the aim is to cut deaths to 20,000, but it may have to be in place for a year, with massive economic consequences.
 

Sync

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So they’re now deciding if they’ll shut down Non essential business. But they’ve already reduced public transport. So all the people working and shopping at that non essential business are still cramming in to a reduced number of carriages/buses etc.

Lunacy.
 

james toney

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Who remembers when the BBC had Nigel Farage on 2-3 times a week as an expert on Coronavirus?
Now the same BBC are asking people to "Stop and think before you share any misinformation"
Well...they were warned about such lunacy.
 

JacquesHughes

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That’s Boris finally on board, and now we’ve got a whole continent in lockdown, as did China, and it only seems necessary.

Now we all get behind the policy in Ireland and Britain and give it full welly.
 

Ardillaun

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For most of them, all available sources of news are in the English language, with the result that most English speaking countries share a similar viewpoint, informed by the London and US governments and press.

Some years back, I had occasioon to read a report produced by the HSE. At the end, there was a list of "International Sources" referenced. Bar the Netherlands and Sweden, all sources consulted were from Commonwelath countries. I think it's fair to assume that the Dutch and Swedish sources were also available in English. Nothing from any of our other partners in the EU.
It‘s a serious national flaw in our thinking, highlighted long ago by Joe Lee in his great work, Ireland 1912-1985, Politics and Society. Britain and America don’t have all the answers and their sheer size often makes their solutions unsuitable for us.
 
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Dame_Enda

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Boris Johnson announced a lockdown yesterday. Now their approach is arguably tougher than ours, provided there's enforcement. Schools are also closed.

Edit: Laura Kuenssburg of BBC says lots of messages coming in from employees who are being ordered to come to work despite Boris saying non-essential workplaces would be closed.



Here is a map of their cases as of yesterday.

GL-UK-CORONAVIRUS-MAP-DEATHS-23-MARCH-1813-1.jpg
 
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Dearghoul

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It‘s a serious national flaw in our thinking, highlighted long ago by Joe Lee in his great work, Ireland 1912-1985, Politics and Society. Britain and America don’t have all the answers and their sheer size often makes their solutions unsuitable for us.
Ah Professor Li!

It is indeed a great work. He compared our course over the short Twentieth Century with the likes of Finland, Denmark and other out of the way places.

(Always remember a Mayo chippie of my acquaintance, long ago making that remark about a Czech co worker. 'He's from Poland, or one of them out of the way places')
 

Betson

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Boris Johnson announced a lockdown yesterday. Now their approach is arguably tougher than ours, provided there's enforcement. Schools are also closed.

Edit: Laura Kuenssburg of BBC says lots of messages coming in from employees who are being ordered to come to work despite Boris saying non-essential workplaces would be closed.



Here is a map of their cases as of yesterday.

GL-UK-CORONAVIRUS-MAP-DEATHS-23-MARCH-1813-1.jpg

Bit of confusion as to if it applies non nonessential workers or to those where it is nonessential that you go to your workplace for your work , ie cannot work from home. There is a big difference between the two.
 

Betson

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A friend in Gloucester who's a receptionist in a law firm has just told me that her bosses seem to have found some kind of way around this, and that she's expected in tomorrow.
Looking on line there is a lot of confusion as to if it means non essential workers or workers where it is nonessential they travel to their workplace , ie cannot work from home.

A lot of people who thought they were not to go in tomorrow been told by employers that they must turn up as they cannot work from home , regardless if that work is seen as essential or not to the pandemic fight.
 

Ardillaun

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A friend in Gloucester who's a receptionist in a law firm has just told me that her bosses seem to have found some kind of way around this, and that she's expected in tomorrow.
Unfortunate. The brother in Reading is working from home for the foreseeable and pulled his kids from school a few weeks ago, before the official closure.
 


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