Hope (at last) in Libya .... or illusion?

Hillmanhunter1

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Haftar has left Moscow without signing the ceasefire agreement:

Libya's Haftar leaves Moscow without signing ceasefire agreement

One assumes that he believes that he can win control of Libya militarily. With the Turks now backing the Government of National Accord it seems that the stage is set for further bloodshed.
 


owedtojoy

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Haftar has left Moscow without signing the ceasefire agreement:

Libya's Haftar leaves Moscow without signing ceasefire agreement

One assumes that he believes that he can win control of Libya militarily. With the Turks now backing the Government of National Accord it seems that the stage is set for further bloodshed.
Russia have been important sponsors to him, but he must reckon he can do without them. It is also a pretty big act of cheek to the Russians - usually most of these have deals have been previously agreed.


 

owedtojoy

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The risk to Europe is a flood of refugees crossing the Mediterranean.

Not from sub-Saharan Africa this time, but Libyans fleeing Haftar's army.
 

clusterbucked

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The risk to Europe is a flood of refugees crossing the Mediterranean.

Not from sub-Saharan Africa this time, but Libyans fleeing Haftar's army.
Libya has a relatively small population of around 6 million people.

Tunisia and to a lesser extent Eygpt would be the destination of most Libyan refugees not Europe.

It's estimated that at one time nearly 2 million Libyan refugees were in Tunisia. The vast majority fled fearful of the EU backed Jihadi militias and their NATO air force.
 

owedtojoy

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Countries with interests in Libya's long-running conflict agreed to provide no further military support to the warring parties while a ceasefire lasts.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel made the announcement at Sunday's peace summit in Berlin after about four hours of talks at the chancellery.

"We agreed on a comprehensive plan forward," Merkel said. "I can say that all participants worked really constructively together.

"We all agree that we should respect the arms embargo and that the arms embargo should be controlled more strongly than it has been in the past."
It appears to be balanced on a knife-edge at the moment.
 

Dame_Enda

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The EU has chosen to be a passive and impotent bystander while Russia and Turkey occupy Libya. They will be able to turn illegal migration in the western Meditteranean on and off to blackmail the EU, just as Erdogan has been doing in the eastern Meditteranean already. Russia could set up naval bases in Libya, creating a new frontline in a potential conflict between Russia and NATO.
 

owedtojoy

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The EU has chosen to be a passive and impotent bystander while Russia and Turkey occupy Libya. They will be able to turn illegal migration in the western Meditteranean on and off to blackmail the EU, just as Erdogan has been doing in the eastern Meditteranean already. Russia could set up naval bases in Libya, creating a new frontline in a potential conflict between Russia and NATO.
I agree.

Libya has shown the EU at its worst .. Obama never wanted to intervene there, but gave in to Hillary Clinton, Cameron, Sarcozy and Merkel pressuring him.. Most of the NATO contribution came from Britain and France.

However, after Qaddafi was overthrown, Cameron and Sarcozy made their high-flown speeches about democracy in Tripoli, then skedaddled, leaving a novice Government of complete amateurs to deal with the chaos. It was not the intervention itself, but the poorly managed aftermath that brought the country to where it is now. Obama rightly called it a "sh!t-show", and takes his share of the blame, but it should have been an EU-driven operation all along.

Now, with Trump bored with the whole affair and to all intents a Putin and Haftar supporter, the EU are letting Russia and Turkey make the running. Turkey is still a NATO member, but its motives are suspect. Libya was once part of the Ottoman Empire, until Italy seized it as a colonial possession.

Not a great exhibition of what passes for EU "foreign policy".
 

Tacitus

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Merkel pressuring him.
Germany was against the intervention and voted not for it in the UN security council (which was a de facto vote against it). Merkel and her government received a lot of criticism for this decision (including domestic), but suffice to say, history has vindicated her. She pointed out to Obama that Libya would be like Afghanistan, as in overthrowing the tyrannical government was easy, but building up a democratic government in a country with no democratic history and no political institutions (Gadaffi deliberately destroyed them to make the whole country depend on him) would be difficult and require time and ressources, both of which the West was not willing to invest.

In a sense this summit was an attempt to clean up the mess Obama and Co. made several years ago.
 

Itsalaugh

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I agree.

Libya has shown the EU at its worst .. Obama never wanted to intervene there, but gave in to Hillary Clinton, Cameron, Sarcozy and Merkel pressuring him.. Most of the NATO contribution came from Britain and France.

However, after Qaddafi was overthrown, Cameron and Sarcozy made their high-flown speeches about democracy in Tripoli, then skedaddled, leaving a novice Government of complete amateurs to deal with the chaos. It was not the intervention itself, but the poorly managed aftermath that brought the country to where it is now. Obama rightly called it a "sh!t-show", and takes his share of the blame, but it should have been an EU-driven operation all along.

Now, with Trump bored with the whole affair and to all intents a Putin and Haftar supporter, the EU are letting Russia and Turkey make the running. Turkey is still a NATO member, but its motives are suspect. Libya was once part of the Ottoman Empire, until Italy seized it as a colonial possession.

Not a great exhibition of what passes for EU "foreign policy".
So your now prepared to admit your error in supporting the fraudelent, illegal western/jihadi destruction of Libya.
 

owedtojoy

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So your now prepared to admit your error in supporting the fraudelent, illegal western/jihadi destruction of Libya.
I said nothing to support that. The UN Resolution to intervene in LIbya, unanimously voted by the Security Council, was justified.
 

owedtojoy

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Germany was against the intervention and voted not for it in the UN security council (which was a de facto vote against it). Merkel and her government received a lot of criticism for this decision (including domestic), but suffice to say, history has vindicated her. She pointed out to Obama that Libya would be like Afghanistan, as in overthrowing the tyrannical government was easy, but building up a democratic government in a country with no democratic history and no political institutions (Gadaffi deliberately destroyed them to make the whole country depend on him) would be difficult and require time and ressources, both of which the West was not willing to invest.

In a sense this summit was an attempt to clean up the mess Obama and Co. made several years ago.
My view is that the EU were responsible for building up a Democratic regime in Libya, but shirked it. I think that was Obama's view when he called it a "sh!t show". It is the EU's back yard, after all, as were the Balkans.

(I think we agree that the long term stability of Libya was never going to be guaranteed, even under Gadaffi's son. The appearance of Haftar, a disgruntled former General, bears that out.)

The EU has tried to up its game in regard to "Foreign Policy". Henry Kissinger said that when he wanted to consult Europe, he did not know what number to call. Even Europe still does not know what number to call.

Libya is just the latest in a series of running sores. The EU needs to influence its "near abroad" or face encroachments and threatening postures from Russia and Turkey, all the way from the Baltic, to the Middle East, and along North Africa. It is a major problem for the new Commission.
 

former wesleyan

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Coveney unwilling to say if Ireland will contribute troops to EU ceasefire monitoring force.
Trans: waiting for funding offer.
 


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