How a Second Korean War will be fought.

myhonorisloyalty666

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A chilling scenario is described here.

Soon after, the DPRK’s four pre-positioned Army corps begin to move south along the “two major avenues of approach that lead toward Seoul, via Kaesong and Munsan nearer the west coast, and Chor’won and Uijongbu further inland”, as well as smaller operations “along the east coast from Kansong to Sokch’o as well as the Taedong mountains further inland”. Heavily influenced by Soviet military philosophy of the 1970′s-80′s, the North Korean plan is to use infantry supported by armor – emphasizing strategic surprise, mobility, and concentration of firepower, in tandem with special forces operations in the enemy’s rear – to rapidly overrun the South’s defense lines and reunify the peninsula “under DPRK conditions” within 30 days, before the ROK can fully mobilize or bring in heavy American reinforcements.


The North Korean attack would inevitably be repulsed but could be followed an attempt to knock out the Pyongyang government....

I am not saying that the march to Pyongyang will be like a walk in the park. At least initially, the Korean People’s Army and its military reserves will put up a fight, and as mentioned above, facing the certainty of its own demise, the regime may not shy away from unleashing any nuclear capabilities they may have. Nor are the South Koreans going to be particularly restrained – one authority on the matter informs me that the South Korean officer class hates the Northern elites, and will probably “take no enemies, anyone associated with the party (which means all officers) will be eliminated”. However, there is no way that even a big guerilla army – poorly trained, logistically-challenged, and armed with antiquated 1950′s/60′s-era Soviet weaponry – will be able to halt the advance of a modern military enjoying advanced space-based surveillance systems and complete air and naval superiority. An eventual Combined Forces victory is assured, unless…
The international ripples could be the following...

There will be a cascade of consequences elsewhere. Taiwan may use the opportunity to declare independence, provoking a second war in the region. Though the US says that it will not come to Taiwan’s aid if it does this unilaterally, America will probably change its mind if it is simultaneously embroiled in an intense local war with China on the Korean peninsula! Other actors opposed to American hegemony may view this as a chance to undermine the overstretched superpower. For instance, Russia could orchestrate a new war against Georgia and China may even persuade Iran to mine the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for security guarantees and technology transfer. All these dominoes going down may even precipitate the collapse of the increasingly fragile Pax Americana
How a Second Korean War will be Fought | Sublime Oblivion
 


D

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Beijing will flex it's considerable muscle when it needs to and stop all of this end of days nonsense!!!
 

justme1

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It's kinda clear here folks what's going on,the Dear leader has suffered a stroke (and who know's what else) has had to appoint a son as the the next in line,so it's either the Dear leader thinking i want people to still know i'm strong strong or else the kid is putting his marker down,nonsense really.
 

mr_anderson

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It's kinda clear here folks what's going on,the Dear leader has suffered a stroke (and who know's what else) has had to appoint a son as the the next in line,so it's either the Dear leader thinking i want people to still know i'm strong strong or else the kid is putting his marker down,nonsense really.
Probably.
The only positive thing I see in your analysis is that if the Dear Leader feels it necessary to emphasise his strength, then it signals he is in a weak position to begin with.

The question then arises of what kind of character would take over were the Dear Leader to be replaced ?
 

louis bernard

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Telephone call from Washington to Beijing.
“Hi is that you Wen? Yes? Obama here.”
“What can I do for you Barack?
“I’ve just heard on the grapevine that people you know in Pyongyang are thinking about dropping a dirty bomb on Seoul”
“Wow, that’s news to me Barack”
“Maybe there’s nothing in it Wen, but just to be on the safe side, please inform these lunatics that if they do North Korea is going to become the largest glassed over area on earth, you have a nice day now.”
 

myhonorisloyalty666

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This is what the average North Korean cannon fodder looks like.



The South Koreans meanwhile are far better trained and equiped.



North Koreans are puny compared to South Korean and American soldiers.

 

eoghanacht

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justme1

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Probably.
The only positive thing I see in your analysis is that if the Dear Leader feels it necessary to emphasise his strength, then it signals he is in a weak position to begin with.

The question then arises of what kind of character would take over were the Dear Leader to be replaced ?
Indeed.
But i think you just answered your own question there mr_anderson;3217030.
Anybody who attack's like that in the first place,should it be in everyday life or in this case a dictator's life,is starting from a negative,or in english from being frightened,of something who knows (only they do) but that is where this person is coming from.
IMO the Dear leader has been given a picture of his mortality and he knows that he ain't going to be around much longer,hence this nonsense were he is trying to show his son how it's done,or else he wants that war he has craved for with the south as he wants like his father to be remembered as.........
Sad really,but there's human being's for ya!
 

corporal punishment

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We might get a new series of M*A*S*H.
Charlie Sheen would make a good Hawkeye Pierce.
 

GDPR

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Beijing will flex it's considerable muscle when it needs to and stop all of this end of days nonsense!!!
+1.


It's kinda clear here folks what's going on,the Dear leader has suffered a stroke (and who know's what else) has had to appoint a son as the the next in line,so it's either the Dear leader thinking i want people to still know i'm strong strong or else the kid is putting his marker down,nonsense really.
Thats possible but another possibility I didnt see mentioned anywhere is manipulation of the markets by a couple of psychopaths inside North Korea. Anytime there is an incident like this one the South Korean currency falls and stock market investors get the jitters. Who knows if Kim Jong-il didnt have a huge bet with his Swiss Bank money on the markets/Korean Won currency falling as soon as this happened. I wouldnt rule it out. North Korean leaders know they will suffer the same fate as Saddam Hussein in any serious conflict.
 

BlackLion

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Indeed.
But i think you just answered your own question there mr_anderson;3217030.
Anybody who attack's like that in the first place,should it be in everyday life or in this case a dictator's life,is starting from a negative,or in english from being frightened,of something who knows (only they do) but that is where this person is coming from.
IMO the Dear leader has been given a picture of his mortality and he knows that he ain't going to be around much longer,hence this nonsense were he is trying to show his son how it's done,or else he wants that war he has craved for with the south as he wants like his father to be remembered as.........
Sad really,but there's human being's for ya!
I'd say he's ronery :lol:

YouTube - HQ | I'm So Ronery by Kim Jong - Team America: World Police
 
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US and South Korea have the firepower to stop North Korean army moving forward very quickly.

It won't be precision bombing, more like daisy cutter and fuel air bombing that pretty much wipes anything out in short area aided by those nasty cluster bombs.


North Korean has little if any command and control facilities hence once order is given they are really on their own as they are not going to be talking regularly to any command post. Any command post given orders pretty much has a very short shelf life.

I would see South Korea trading land for time allowing DPK to move forward and then responding.

South Koreans know they have lots of DPK teams inside it but they have shown in the past that they more than willing and able to act against 5th columnists and don't expect a trial.

DPK could decide it wants to use dirty weapons but reponse will be in kind at place DPK holds dear.

I'd worry more about whether elements in DPK army will fight as suggestions of elements of its senior officers having been bought off years ago have been around for a few years.

China may figure it can intervene but it will be given option of having all its Western markets denied very quickly it may decide otherwise.
 
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+1.




Thats possible but another possibility I didnt see mentioned anywhere is manipulation of the markets by a couple of psychopaths inside North Korea. Anytime there is an incident like this one the South Korean currency falls and stock market investors get the jitters. Who knows if Kim Jong-il didnt have a huge bet with his Swiss Bank money on the markets/Korean Won currency falling as soon as this happened. I wouldnt rule it out. North Korean leaders know they will suffer the same fate as Saddam Hussein in any serious conflict.
The Kims visited artillery site area hours before it started shelling............kinda tells you what is going on.
 

BlackLion

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This is what the average North Korean cannon fodder looks like.

North Koreans are puny compared to South Korean and American soldiers.

it's called posturing, you would make a crap Minister of Intelligence.

In my option china is now the top dog in the world. If anyone touches kimmy, china are going to knock some heads.
 

kerdasi amaq

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How Wars are MADE | The Korean "Police Action"

When General MacArthur WOKE UP TO THE TREASON OF PRESIDENT TRUMAN and the Soviets in the United Nations, he executed one of the greatest military performances ever ventured in modern warfare. His dangerous but magnificent military engagement and sea landing at “Inchon” on September 15, 1950 enabled his military forces to slaughter the communist forces, destroy their massive supply dumps, and put the Red Chinese, North Koreans and their Soviet advisors on the run. [In other words, MacArthur kicked some ass!]

MacArthur never asked permission from the United Nations Security Council (Soviet General Zinchenko) to perform this SECRET military operation. MacArthur hand-picked close and loyal military officers in doing so, and they kept a tight lid on the entire operation.
If the Americans want to win, they'd better not tell the UN what they are doing.
 

southwestkerry

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Cant see anything happening myself. As a few say here its just muscle flexing.
 
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Cant see anything happening myself. As a few say here its just muscle flexing.
It is muscle flexing because kim's seem not to have loyalty of the military, senior military officers in nice lifestyle know full well if they go to war they lose, a total victory would ensure if they survived a continuation of it BUT they know that is not possible. Anything less means a vengeful politburo seeking revenge..... ergo Why destroy everything for that, especially when South Korea has already made promises that IF a war were to start and officers did nothing they or their families would be looked after and they know South is not lying.
 

Thac0man

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I am not sure where the quote in the OP is taken from, but I have to completely disagree with its post script on foreign reprocussions:

There will be a cascade of consequences elsewhere. Taiwan may use the opportunity to declare independence, provoking a second war in the region. Though the US says that it will not come to Taiwan’s aid if it does this unilaterally, America will probably change its mind if it is simultaneously embroiled in an intense local war with China on the Korean peninsula! Other actors opposed to American hegemony may view this as a chance to undermine the overstretched superpower. For instance, Russia could orchestrate a new war against Georgia and China may even persuade Iran to mine the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for security guarantees and technology transfer. All these dominoes going down may even precipitate the collapse of the increasingly fragile Pax Americana
"increasingly fragile Pax Americana", could not disagree more. Chinas' claim over the South China Sea is putting it at odds with Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. All are developing ties with the US and Russia.

Japan is looking towards US support after it had its cage rattled over island disputes with both Russia and China.

No one is going to help North Korea.

All this could not come at a worse time for China, and they will do as much as they can to insure Pyongyangs demise and a return to regional stability. Kim il is a weight no one wants any more.

The fall out will be bloody on the Korean penninsula, but short lived because of NKs lack of fuel. The NK army and its infrastructure will grind to a halt in less that two weeks, even without having to fend off a substantial invasion. Once the balloon goes up all armies are in the field and their fuel consumption sky rockets.

All NK forces would be sitting ducks within days. The leadership will have packed up their supplies of After Eights and Eurpean booze and legged it to China to claim sanctuary.

I get the definite impression that sentiment in South Korea is in favour of a triggered and violent response to NK agression from now on. Hence the Defence Miniter was forced out for being too lenient. His replacement will have to have the rules of engagement laid out and be ready to kick off a massive response.

It might be argued that Pyongyang has put the South Korean mindset on a war footing, making the populace more ready for the impact of casualities and reducing the impact of Pyongyangs 'killer blow' threat strategy.

I think its high time South Korea showed what a democratic nation is both capable of inflicting as well as enduring. Its the sort of strenght Kim and his cronies have no conception of.

People are right to be concerned, anything could happen; but much may not. From the outset this would rapidly turn from a war of containment to a huge stabilisation operation. If its going to kick off we might expect to see a UN resolution of some sort that will allow a wider coalition to be shipped in after the initial phase of fighting.
 
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I am not sure where the quote in the OP is taken from, but I have to completely disagree with its post script on foreign reprocussions:

"increasingly fragile Pax Americana", could not disagree more. Chinas' claim over the South China Sea is putting it at odds with Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. All are developing ties with the US and Russia.

Japan is looking towards US support after it had its cage rattled over island disputes with both Russia and China.

No one is going to help North Korea.

All this could not come at a worse time for China, and they will do as much as they can to insure Pyongyangs demise and a return to regional stability. Kim il is a weight no one wants any more.

The fall out will be bloody on the Korean penninsula, but short lived because of NKs lack of fuel. The NK army and its infrastructure will grind to a halt in less that two weeks, even without having to fend off a substantial invasion. Once the balloon goes up all armies are in the field and their fuel consumption sky rockets.

All NK forces would be sitting ducks within days. The leadership will have packed up their supplies of After Eights and Eurpean booze and legged it to China to claim sanctuary.

I get the definite impression that sentiment in South Korea is in favour of a triggered and violent response to NK agression from now on. Hence the Defence Miniter was forced out for being too lenient. His replacement will have to have the rules of engagement laid out and be ready to kick off a massive response.

It might be argued that Pyongyang has put the South Korean mindset on a war footing, making the populace more ready for the impact of casualities and reducing the impact of Pyongyangs 'killer blow' threat strategy.

I think its high time South Korea showed what a democratic nation is both capable of inflicting as well as enduring. Its the sort of strenght Kim and his cronies have no conception of.

People are right to be concerned, anything could happen; but much may not. From the outset this would rapidly turn from a war of containment to a huge stabilisation operation. If its going to kick off we might expect to see a UN resolution of some sort that will allow a wider coalition to be shipped in after the initial phase of fighting.
Can't disagree with that.

Many people think the US is weak and won't response, IF it fails to support one ally then all will believe they will be abandoned, despite the idiot in the White House I don't see them abandoning South Korea.
 


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