How likely is the budget to pass?

QuizMaster

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We've been hearing plenty about how much will be cut, the consensus, the non-consensus etc, but very little about this government's ability to put their budget through the house.

Are they taking care of that or are they just going to engage in a bit of brinksmanship?

Are they, secretly, approaching Grealish, Lowry and a few others with promises to keep local A&E units open?

What are the numbers anyway? I've always followed the numbers but these days it's just too confusing. If you only count the 100% dead certs you get less than a majority (I think), but there's a few almost-certs.

What about another Joe Behan? Did anyone see that coming? If not, how do they know there isn't another one in the pipeline?
 


VoteFFno1

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The Budget will pass...nobody really wants an election at this stage.
 

QuizMaster

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Plenty of people want an election. For starters there's the majority of the population, but I suppose they don't count for anything when it comes to Dail votes.

Let's assume FG and Lab vote against. And SF.

There will be a fair few Fianna Failers who realise their only chance is a solo run. the FF name will be a millstone around the neck next time out.

Add to that the shock of the details. It's all very well to say cut 6 billion, but when they are going to close the hospital in your town, or cancel your local school's much needed rebuilding, it's a very different story. For some it might be too much to take.

For me, if they withdraw special needs assistants from classrooms I will be joining the revolution.
 

Macy

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I always presumed that was the real driver behind Gormley's concensus plan - they don't have confidence that they can bring the Government side with them and needed an FG bailout.
 

drjimryan2

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mgbarry

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The budget will pass because government TDs will get to vote for it and be shown to have the national interest at heart; while at the same time be allowed to vote against individual local cuts at the appropriate time. That way the FF TDs can campaign for their local hospital/school/whatever without being attacked by independent FF.

Of course this only works so long as constituents focus on local things and accept whatever national pain comes through social welfare cuts. A national protest like that against the medical card cuts makes it impossible to say that you voted against pension cuts, or whatever, for your local people in the Dail.
 

cricket

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How could Finian McGrath put his name to ads in today's papers warning about cutbacks in the mental health area and still vote for a budget that's going to pulverise the health services ?
 
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Dosent matter if it passes or not, I like many others will be on the streets doing whatever it takes to remove the corruption and false political elite from this country.
 

DeputyEdo

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How could Finian McGrath put his name to ads in today's papers warning about cutbacks in the mental health area and still vote for a budget that's going to pulverise the health services ?
You not understand how politics works? Here's a quick overview:
Politicians will say one thing, then do another.

End of lesson :p
 

QuizMaster

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How could Finian McGrath put his name to ads in today's papers warning about cutbacks in the mental health area and still vote for a budget that's going to pulverise the health services ?
But do they need Finian McGrath?
Numbers someone please.
 

The OD

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charley

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Cowen remaining in office tells the rest of the world that Ireland is making no real effort to solve its problems ,His hands are as dirty as Neary's, Fitzpatrick's and Drumm's . Letting him remain in office is saying that Ireland accepts and embraces all the behaviour of crooked bankers,corrupt officials and moronic politicians. The refusal to hold election is spitting in the face of the electorate.
 

myksav

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Very likely. I'd say definitely.

Numbers could end up with the vote not passing, if only FF and Green's vote pass, that's 76 to 87.
Even with all FF voting for the budget, it's a 80 to 83 against. Two Ind's would hold the balance.

Numerically the Gov't is in trouble but it would be very stupid for FG or Lab to vote against the budget. It's going to be a hard budget which will detrimentally effect FF and Greens if passed.
A number of abstentions would do instead of voting against, allowing it to pass but with a good show of voting against. Political capital.

A failed Budget vote might force an election, (which many here want) without a Budget set. And if an election is held, it won't be FF putting through a harsh budget, it would be FG and Lab. And that would detrimentally effect FG and Lab standing.


Let us see whether Fine Gael and Labour are politically astute enough to use an opportunity like this properly.
 

Bismarck

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How would the country benefit from a pre budget election? Only Delay the cuts that are coming anyway. time for meaningless populism is over. to those who oppose the cuts what alternative do you have? Budget will pass
 

Gemlarkin

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How can any T.D. support a Government that closes the local hospital?

The budget will pass because government TDs will get to vote for it and be shown to have the national interest at heart; while at the same time be allowed to vote against individual local cuts at the appropriate time. That way the FF TDs can campaign for their local hospital/school/whatever without being attacked by independent FF.

Of course this only works so long as constituents focus on local things and accept whatever national pain comes through social welfare cuts. A national protest like that against the medical card cuts makes it impossible to say that you voted against pension cuts, or whatever, for your local people in the Dail.
How can any T.D. support a Government that closes the local hospital?
 

QuizMaster

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How would the country benefit from a pre budget election? Only Delay the cuts that are coming anyway. time for meaningless populism is over. to those who oppose the cuts what alternative do you have? Budget will pass
Even if a new government only does basically the same things, at least the people will have been consulted and we will have had a national debate on the issue.
And there will be plenty of candidates who oppose the cuts. Ironically these will serve to validate the cuts as of course the pro-cuts candidates will be elected in the vast majority.

And even if for no other reason, the public want, indeed need, to punish Fianna Fail for getting us into this mess. It will make us feel better to give them a bit of a kicking.

As for FG and Labour abstaining in enough numbers to see the budget through: nah, can't see it. Each of those parties will be looking for the advantage over the other. To say the other supported Fianna Fail's budget.
Furthermore, if you were at the highest levels of FG or Labour, you would believe you could do a better job, bring in a fair budget and get this country moving again, and you would want power. That's the way they think.
 

thenavigator

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Here is a list of all the email addresses of the Ministers, TD's, Senators thats floating around the internet.... Why doesn't everybody on here lobby them to not pass the budget....

taoiseach@taoiseach.gov.ie; mary.coughlan@oireachtas.ie; minister@finance.gov.ie; minister's_office@health.irlgov.ie; minister@transport.ie; info@justice.ie; minister@dfa.ie; minister@welfare.ie; mary.hanafin@oireachtas.ie; minister@environ.ie; minister.ryan@dcenr.gov.ie; Minister@agriculture.gov.ie; batt.okeeffe@oireachtas.ie; aire@pobail.ie; tony.killeen@oireachtas.ie; John.Curran@taoiseach.gov.ie; minister_andrews@health.irlgov.ie; dick.roche@taoiseach.gov.ie; conor.lenihan@oireachtas.ie; sean.haughey@oireachtas.ie; billy.kelleher@deti.ie; john_moloney@health.gov.ie; michael_finneran@environ.ie; peter.power@dfa.ie; martin.mansergh@opw.ie; aine.brady@oireachtas.ie; dara.calleary@deti.ie; ciarancuffe@transport.ie; sean.connick@agriculture.gov.ie; marya.white@oireachtas.ie; Ivana.Bacik@oireachtas.ie; Dan.Boyle@oireachtas.ie; Paul.Bradford@oireachtas.ie; Martin.Brady@oireachtas.ie; Paddy.Burke@oireachtas.ie; Larry.Butler@oireachtas.ie; Jerry.Buttimer@oireachtas.ie; Ivor.Callely@oireachtas.ie; Ciaran.Cannon@oireachtas.ie; John.Carty@oireachtas.ie; Donie.Cassidy@oireachtas.ie; Paudie.Coffey@oireachtas.ie; Paul.Coghlan@oireachtas.ie; Maria.Corrigan@oireachtas.ie; Maurice.Cummins@oireachtas.ie; Mark.Daly@oireachtas.ie; Deirdre.DeBurca@oireachtas.ie; Pearse.Doherty@oireachtas.ie; Paschal.Donohoe@oireachtas.ie; John.Ellis@oireachtas.ie; Geraldine.Feeney@oireachtas.ie; Frances.Fitzgerald@oireachtas.ie; Camillus.Glynn@oireachtas.ie; John.Hanafin@oireachtas.ie; Dominic.Hannigan@oireachtas.ie; Eoghan.Harris@oireachtas.ie; Fidelma.Healy.Eames@oireachtas.ie; Cecilia.Keaveney@oireachtas.ie; Alan.Kelly@oireachtas.ie; Terry.Leyden@oireachtas.ie; Marc.MacSharry@oireachtas.ie; Michael.McCarthy@oireachtas.ie; Lisa.McDonald@oireachtas.ie; Nicky.McFadden@oireachtas.ie; PAT.MOYLAN@oireachtas.ie; Ronan.Mullen@oireachtas.ie; David.Norris@oireachtas.ie; Labhras.OMurchu@oireachtas.ie; Francis.OBrien@oireachtas.ie; Brian.ODomhnaill@oireachtas.ie; Denis.ODonovan@oireachtas.ie; Fiona.OMalley@oireachtas.ie; Joe.OReilly@oireachtas.ie; Ann.Ormonde@oireachtas.ie; Ned.OSullivan@oireachtas.ie; jotoole@oireachtas.ie; Kieran.Phelan@oireachtas.ie; JohnPaul.Phelan@oireachtas.ie; Phil.Prendergast@oireachtas.ie; Feargal.Quinn@oireachtas.ie; Eugene.Regan@oireachtas.ie; Shane.Ross@oireachtas.ie; Brendan.Ryan@oireachtas.ie; Liam.Twomey@oireachtas.ie; Jim.Walsh@oireachtas.ie; MaryM.White@oireachtas.ie; Alex.White@oireachtas.ie; Diarmuid.Wilson@oireachtas.ie; bertie.ahern@oireachtas.ie; michael.ahern@oireachtas.ie; noel.ahern@oireachtas.ie; bernard.allen@oireachtas.ie; chris.andrews@oireachtas.ie; barry.andrews@oireachtas.ie; sean.ardagh@oireachtas.ie; bobby.aylward@oireachtas.ie; james.bannon@oireachtas.ie; sean.barrett@oireachtas.ie; joe.behan@oireachtas.ie; john.browne@oireachtas.ie; cyprian.brady@oireachtas.ie; johnny.brady@oireachtas.ie; pat.breen@oireachtas.ie; thomas.p.broughan@oireachtas.ie; niall.blaney@oireachtas.ie; richard.bruton@oireachtas.ie; ulick.burke@oireachtas.ie; joan.burton@oireachtas.ie; catherine.byrne@oireachtas.ie; thomas.byrne@oireachtas.ie; niall.collins@oireachtas.ie; pat.carey@oireachtas.ie; joe.carey@oireachtas.ie; deirdre.clune@oireachtas.ie; dara.calleary@oireachtas.ie; margaret.conlon@oireachtas.ie; paul.connaughton@oireachtas.ie; sean.connick@oireachtas.ie; michael.creed@oireachtas.ie; joe.costello@oireachtas.ie; simon.coveney@oireachtas.ie; brian.lenihan@oireachtas.ie; seymour.crawford@oireachtas.ie; noel.coonan@oireachtas.ie; john.cregan@oireachtas.ie; lucinda.creighton@oireachtas.ie; jimmy.devins@oireachtas.ie; john.curran@oireachtas.ie; michael.darcy@oireachtas.ie; john.deasy@oireachtas.ie; jimmy.deenihan@oireachtas.ie; ciaran.cuffe@oireachtas.ie; noel.dempsey@oireachtas.ie; timmy.dooley@oireachtas.ie; andrew.doyle@oireachtas.ie; bernard.durkan@oireachtas.ie; damien.english@oireachtas.ie; michael.fitzpatrick@oireachtas.ie; frank.fahey@oireachtas.ie; frank.feighan@oireachtas.ie; martin.ferris@oireachtas.ie; michael.finneran@oireachtas.ie; olwyn.enright@oireachtas.ie; charles.flanagan@oireachtas.ie; terence.flanagan@oireachtas.ie; sean.fleming@oireachtas.ie; beverley.flynn@oireachtas.ie; paul.gogarty@oireachtas.ie; john.gormley@oireachtas.ie; martin.cullen@oireachtas.ie; micheal.martin@oireachtas.ie; noel.grealish@oireachtas.ie; eamon.gilmore@oireachtas.ie; mary.harney@oireachtas.ie; brendan.howlin@oireachtas.ie; brian.hayes@oireachtas.ie; tom.hayes@oireachtas.ie; Jackie.Healy.Rae@oireachtas.ie; michael.higgins@oireachtas.ie; maire.hoctor@oireachtas.ie; philip.hogan@oireachtas.ie; paul.kehoe@oireachtas.ie; billy.kelleher@oireachtas.ie; peter.kelly@oireachtas.ie; brendan.kenneally@oireachtas.ie; michael.kennedy@oireachtas.ie; enda.kenny@oireachtas.ie; eamon.ryan@oireachtas.ie; tom.kitt@oireachtas.ie; michael.kitt@oireachtas.ie; michael.lowry@oireachtas.ie; kathleen.lynch@oireachtas.ie; tom.mcellistrim@oireachtas.ie; martin.mansergh@oireachtas.ie; padraic.mccormack@oireachtas.ie; jim.mcdaid@oireachtas.ie; ciaran.lynch@oireachtas.ie; shane.mcentee@oireachtas.ie; dinny.mcginley@oireachtas.ie; mattie.mcgrath@oireachtas.ie; michael.mcgrath@oireachtas.ie; finian.mcgrath@oireachtas.ie; brendan.smith@oireachtas.ie; john.moloney@oireachtas.ie; joe.mchugh@oireachtas.ie; liz.mcmanus@oireachtas.ie; olivia.mitchell@oireachtas.ie; john.mcguinness@oireachtas.ie; arthur.morgan@oireachtas.ie; michael.moynihan@oireachtas.ie; michael.mulcahy@oireachtas.ie; denis.naughten@oireachtas.ie; sean.ofearghail@oireachtas.ie; mj.nolan@oireachtas.ie; michael.noonan@oireachtas.ie; caoimhghin.ocaolain@oireachtas.ie; eamon.ocuiv@oireachtas.ie; daniel.neville@oireachtas.ie; aengus.osnodaigh@oireachtas.ie; darragh.obrien@oireachtas.ie; charlie.oconnor@oireachtas.ie; kieran.odonnell@oireachtas.ie; john.odonoghue@oireachtas.ie; fergus.odowd@oireachtas.ie; noel.oflynn@oireachtas.ie; rory.ohanlon@oireachtas.ie; willie.odea@oireachtas.ie; jim.okeeffe@oireachtas.ie; ned.okeeffe@oireachtas.ie; john.omahony@oireachtas.ie; maureen.osullivan@oireachtas.ie; sean.power@oireachtas.ie; brian.oshea@oireachtas.ie; christy.osullivan@oireachtas.ie; jan.osullivan@oireachtas.ie; willie.penrose@oireachtas.ie; john.perry@oireachtas.ie; mary.orourke@Oireachtas.ie; peter.power@oireachtas.ie; ruairi.quinn@oireachtas.ie; pat.rabbitte@oireachtas.ie; james.reilly@oireachtas.ie; alan.shatter@oireachtas.ie; dick.roche@oireachtas.ie; trevor.sargent@oireachtas.ie; eamon.scanlon@oireachtas.ie; michael.ring@oireachtas.ie; pj.sheehan@oireachtas.ie; sean.sherlock@oireachtas.ie; tom.sheahan@oireachtas.ie; roisin.shortall@oireachtas.ie; emmet.stagg@oireachtas.ie; david.stanton@oireachtas.ie; billy.timmins@oireachtas.ie; joanna.tuffy@oireachtas.ie; noel.treacy@oireachtas.ie; mary.upton@oireachtas.ie; michael.woods@oireachtas.ie; jack.wall@oireachtas.ie; mary.wallace@oireachtas.ie; leo.varadkar@oireachtas.ie
 


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