How many seats do you think Fianna Fáil will win at the next General Election?

How many seats do you think Fianna Fáil will win at the next General Election?


  • Total voters
    214
  • Poll closed .

Tea Party Patriot

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Oct 31, 2010
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I think people are being very dismissive of country voters, i live in a rural area and was talking to the owner of a local taxi firm last week , he told me he could name over 100 families in the area where sons or daughter or both had now emigrated and his remark was some of them staunch fianna fail for generations are saying never again will they vote for that bunch.
so this theory that non urban dwellers are somehow backward in comparison to urban dwellers from such cosmopolitan locations as say drogheda is to be frank a load of bull
The one thing I know from rural people on the ground is that if FF loose this percentage of the vote then FG are on for one hell of an overall majority. Country voters won't go Labour or SF.
 


Aristodemus

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I still think they will recover somewhat and would not be surprised if they ended up nearer 50 than 30. Vote management is the key. They did it at the last election and picked up half a dozen seats they should never have won. The further down a ballot paper people go the more likely a FF candidate will sneak through on the final count
 

stalins granny

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Jun 27, 2006
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The one thing I know from rural people on the ground is that if FF loose this percentage of the vote then FG are on for one hell of an overall majority. Country voters won't go Labour or SF.
you obviously know nothing about this country and its history, fianna fail voters would vote for the satanist paedophile party before switching to the "old enemy"
 

Tea Party Patriot

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you obviously know nothing about this country and its history, fianna fail voters would vote for the satanist paedophile party before switching to the "old enemy"
My grandfather ran for election for FF, was appointed to a state board by FF, 11 FF cabinet ministers attended his funeral when he died, I am from about as FF a family as you could find, and I can assure you I would FG before I would vote Labour or SF.
 

Simbo67

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I still think they will recover somewhat and would not be surprised if they ended up nearer 50 than 30. Vote management is the key. They did it at the last election and picked up half a dozen seats they should never have won. The further down a ballot paper people go the more likely a FF candidate will sneak through on the final count
How does that work out when they are running candidates based upon a 40% vote and getting a 20% or less vote.
Come the day, I think they'll get close to 20%.
 

stalins granny

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How does that work out when they are running candidates based upon a 40% vote and getting a 20% or less vote.
Come the day, I think they'll get close to 20%.
Exactly vote management only works when you are trying to spread 1 and a half+ quotas between two candidates to ensure both are elected not when you have half a quota between to candiiates
 

The Banker

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May 25, 2007
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The nearer we get to the election I think we will see some of the Fianna Fail mavericks (Noel O’Flynn, Mattie McGrath, McGuiness etc..) deciding to go it alone once they see how the wind in blowing from an electoral point of view.

Therefore Fianna Fail will win in and around 25 (or less). FF Nua, FF Lite or what ever you want to call them will get 4-5 seats.
 

ruamruam

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Nov 11, 2010
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My grandfather ran for election for FF, was appointed to a state board by FF, 11 FF cabinet ministers attended his funeral when he died, I am from about as FF a family as you could find, and I can assure you I would FG before I would vote Labour or SF.
That's because you are very right wing.

My mother, daughter of a former FF TD has voted FF all her life but is voting SF in the next election. FF are in serious trouble when someone like my mother stops voting for them.
 

quitepossibly

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Apr 3, 2007
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My grandfather ran for election for FF, was appointed to a state board by FF, 11 FF cabinet ministers attended his funeral when he died, I am from about as FF a family as you could find, and I can assure you I would FG before I would vote Labour or SF.
You'd vote for FG before you'd vote for Lab or SF? Like many others in this country that doesn't mean you won't vote FF. It just means that if FF wasn't an option you'd vote FG over the other two because they're closest to your political beliefs. I'll bet you'll still vote FF now.
 

dalywise

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Feb 23, 2008
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My grandfather ran for election for FF, was appointed to a state board by FF, 11 FF cabinet ministers attended his funeral when he died, I am from about as FF a family as you could find, and I can assure you I would FG before I would vote Labour or SF.
as a matter of interest, from inside the camp so to speak, what qualifications did your grandfather bring to the particular board that he was appointed to? Was he more qualified than Gerry Collins is to Aer Lingus? Than Cecilia Larkin is to Consumer Affairs? Than Bertie's friends are to the DDDA, and numerous other boards?
 

QuizMaster

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My grandfather fought bravely in the war of independence, was captured by the British, released because he developed appendicitis, got better, joined the Free State army, fought against De Valera &Co.
My mother founded her local branch of Fine Gael in 1969 and is still active.
I grew up in Cabinteely, about 200 light years from the Falls Road.

I am considering voting Sinn Fein this time out.
My grandfather must be spinning in his grave, but if all was explained to him, maybe he'd understand.

It's the IMF/ECB deal. We have been royally shafted. FG and Labour are not going to re-visit it and force the gamblers to take some of their losses.
Plus my local candidate seems to have no blood on his hands. I made enquiries.
 

Decadance

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Feb 20, 2009
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No more than twenty.

13% FPV and a lack of goodwill on transfers will ensure the sinking ship keeps going down.

FF strategists will also cut the number of candidates, this reinforces that they are an also ran in the election (FG may have more candidates running than FF).

Despite what some psephologists may think the electorate like to back a winner and FF will be tagged losers and will suffer from lack of FPV and transfers as a result.
 

jayblue

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Oct 28, 2006
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My guess is going to be between 30/31 seats and the only seat in Dublin will be that of Brian Lenihan if he runs, otherwise no Dublin seats at all
 

Panopticon

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May 27, 2009
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I think people are being very dismissive of country voters, i live in a rural area and was talking to the owner of a local taxi firm last week , he told me he could name over 100 families in the area where sons or daughter or both had now emigrated and his remark was some of them staunch fianna fail for generations are saying never again will they vote for that bunch.
so this theory that non urban dwellers are somehow backward in comparison to urban dwellers from such cosmopolitan locations as say drogheda is to be frank a load of bull
It's true, though, that FF is losing more votes in urban areas like Drogheda than in rural areas like Westmeath.
 

anewbeginning

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Jan 20, 2009
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If Fianna Fail have enough seats to form a technical group after the next election I will be impressed.

I still think Cowen would try to hang on as leader even in that situation. He still thinks he has it in him to be a great leader, the next De Valera or something like that.
 

Panopticon

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Let's be realistic: the risk on FF vote share at the moment is heavily towards the upside. They are very unlikely to have a week as bad as the one they had recently, with the election loss and the foreign intervention, and a lot of voters think in a very short-term way. Plus, the opposition are going to look contradictory amongst themselves as the three main opposition parties come out with totally different plans for the deficit (cut more, tax more/partly fiscal fairyland, maybe default/total fiscal fairyland). Finally, I suspect that a lot of people who voted FF before will return in the polling booth, even if they wouldn't admit it. Or they will abstain rather than vote for whichever party is popular in the media at the time. A lot of people agree with me on this.
 

RahenyFG

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Jun 17, 2010
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R.E.M are re-releasing a famous hit with different lyrics, it goes a like something like this

'it's the end of Fianna Fail as we know it and I feel fine':)
 

kodak

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Sep 22, 2010
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It's every Gom for themselves now, they will cut each others throats to be elected, those that stand anyway.
 


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