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How many seats will labour win at the new genreal election ?


Johnny Zordan

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Already threads about FF and SF on this topic so i think a thread is needed to discuss how many seats labour will win at the next ge? I think 12-15. I think most labour ministers even burton won't contest the election
 


R3volution_R3ady

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Hopefully 0.
 

Ulster-Lad

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Did someone call a GE?

How about posting this when there is one called.
 

Analyzer

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I reckon Keaveney and Shortall should be able to get a quota.

Oh...hold on....they got kicked out for disobeying Gimmemore.
 

Cellach

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Already threads about FF and SF on this topic so i think a thread is needed to discuss how many seats labour will win at the next ge? I think 12-15. I think most labour ministers even burton won't contest the election
Do we also need threads on how many seats the ULA (if they still exist), Fine Gael, the Greens and the Christian Solidarity Party will win?
 

cillian32

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Give johnny a break here....I think you are right with the 12-15 seats with SF pick:lol:ing up most of what they lose
 

cillian32

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I reckon Keaveney and Shortall should be able to get a quota.

Oh...hold on....they got kicked out for disobeying Gimmemore.
Tommy Broughan should coast home in Dublin bay north.Kenny to lose his seat there.
 

ergo2

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I think an election will come much sooner than 2016

Labour will lose seats. To elect 15?

Would it not be better to have one thread with guestimates for all parties>
 

harshreality

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Nulty, Penrose, Broughan and Shortall will pick up seats I reckon.
Keaveney may not be a shoe in.

Quite a bit depends on retirements etc so I wouldn't go saying anything for definite just yet.
 

Keith-M

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I too believe an election in 2015 is more likely. Labour will want to postpone the day the electorate passes judgement on them, as much as possible. Right now Labour has only one thing going for it, the defence of the public sector wage rates. Thankfully the Troika won't allow them get away with that for much longer (the best of many reasons why we need the Troika around) and a cold wind is hopefully going to blow through the public sector in the next couple of years.

If they can stay over 13% (unlikely) they could hold over 20 seats. If they fall below 10% (more likely) they could fall back to 10-12 seats.
 

Nordie Northsider

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How many seats will Labour win? Dunno. Why don't you ask Sheamus Heaney - he's got a new line in political predictions?
 

Murph

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I think we all know that this tread will eventually branch out to include other parties and will end as usual being dominated by the anti and pro shinners.

in other words another waste if it can be kept troll proof.
 

Cellach

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FG yes, the others no
Why so? The ULA, if they manage to hold off their amoeba like method of reproducing for a while could well have as many seats as Labour. The abortion debate could see the CSP actually winning a seat, although I accept that is pretty unlikely.

I think you are probably right about the 12 - 15 seats btw.
 

Murph

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you kinda answered your own question there Keith.

If the public sector pay is for the chop as you suggest, then its hard to see what the Labs have going for them and it will be below the 10% mark.
 

SeanieFitz

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Labour will go from 37 to 26
FG will go from 76 - 48
FF will come in at high 30's
SF will increase significantly (disaffected youth vote)
and the balance will be whatever you are having yourself
 

Grey Area

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Due to the amount of retirees Labour will only return single figures if you exclude the independent Labour candidates. Max 15 in total.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Based on present polling, and bearing in mind that the economy is slowly picking up and unemployment is slowly starting to fall, Labour on present polling figures would get 22-23 seats in a 158-seat Dail. But they'll lose some of the left-wing/unaligned/general protest vote type transfers that used to find their way to Labour in later counts, but will be less likely to come this time, simply as a consequence of being in government. Against that, their transfer rate from FG is likely to improve, as parties that form a coalition invariably transfer better to each other after a spell in government. Indeed an interesting aspect of this election is that in a lot of constituencies, the two government parties could lose a seat between them with quite a small drop in their first preference vote, making vote management crucial as to which party loses in each case. And FG have a lot more experience of those dark arts at grassroots level than Labour, who are far less used to running multiple candidates.
 

Grey Area

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Based on present polling, and bearing in mind that the economy is slowly picking up and unemployment is slowly starting to fall, Labour on present polling figures would get 22-23 seats in a 158-seat Dail. But they'll lose some of the left-wing/unaligned/general protest vote type transfers that used to find their way to Labour in later counts, but will be less likely to come this time, simply as a consequence of being in government. Against that, their transfer rate from FG is likely to improve, as parties that form a coalition invariably transfer better to each other after a spell in government. Indeed an interesting aspect of this election is that in a lot of constituencies, the two government parties could lose a seat between them with quite a small drop in their first preference vote, making vote management crucial as to which party loses in each case. And FG have a lot more experience of those dark arts at grassroots level than Labour, who are far less used to running multiple candidates.
That figure of 22 is from a private poll conducted by Labour in Sept/Nov last year. Before the budget and the other carry on.
 

hiding behind a poster

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That figure of 22 is from a private poll conducted by Labour in Sept/Nov last year. Before the budget and the other carry on.
No, that figure is from my head. Labour went up in the first poll after the Budget, and down in the second. Bit early to say what the trend is.
 

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