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Do we also need threads on how many seats the ULA (if they still exist), Fine Gael, the Greens and the Christian Solidarity Party will win?Already threads about FF and SF on this topic so i think a thread is needed to discuss how many seats labour will win at the next ge? I think 12-15. I think most labour ministers even burton won't contest the election
Why so? The ULA, if they manage to hold off their amoeba like method of reproducing for a while could well have as many seats as Labour. The abortion debate could see the CSP actually winning a seat, although I accept that is pretty unlikely.FG yes, the others no
That figure of 22 is from a private poll conducted by Labour in Sept/Nov last year. Before the budget and the other carry on.Based on present polling, and bearing in mind that the economy is slowly picking up and unemployment is slowly starting to fall, Labour on present polling figures would get 22-23 seats in a 158-seat Dail. But they'll lose some of the left-wing/unaligned/general protest vote type transfers that used to find their way to Labour in later counts, but will be less likely to come this time, simply as a consequence of being in government. Against that, their transfer rate from FG is likely to improve, as parties that form a coalition invariably transfer better to each other after a spell in government. Indeed an interesting aspect of this election is that in a lot of constituencies, the two government parties could lose a seat between them with quite a small drop in their first preference vote, making vote management crucial as to which party loses in each case. And FG have a lot more experience of those dark arts at grassroots level than Labour, who are far less used to running multiple candidates.
No, that figure is from my head. Labour went up in the first poll after the Budget, and down in the second. Bit early to say what the trend is.That figure of 22 is from a private poll conducted by Labour in Sept/Nov last year. Before the budget and the other carry on.