How many seats will SP/Solidarity & PBP get in GE 2020?

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
13,268
Website
darrenjprior.blogspot.com
Twitter
https://twitter.com/DarrenJPrior
In the last Dáil there were 5 TD's in the SP/Solidarity & PBP alliance when the Dáil ended. Paul Murphy was the sixth but he left the alliance, although stayed in their Dáil speaking group, to set up his Rise party. How many seats will SP/Solidarity (they had 2 at the end of the last Dáil) and PBP (they had 3 at the end of the last Dáil) return with? If they lose any- who will lose out? I haven't heard that they are likely to gain any TD's- or are they? And will Paul Murphy get reelected for Rise?
 


DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
13,268
Website
darrenjprior.blogspot.com
Twitter
https://twitter.com/DarrenJPrior
Harry McGee predicted yesterday that they would win 2. I'm no expert on predicting election results but it seems to me that none of their seats are safe.
 

Hitchcock

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
8,967
In the last Dáil there were 5 TD's in the SP/Solidarity & PBP alliance when the Dáil ended. Paul Murphy was the sixth but he left the alliance, although stayed in their Dáil speaking group, to set up his Rise party. How many seats will SP/Solidarity (they had 2 at the end of the last Dáil) and PBP (they had 3 at the end of the last Dáil) return with? If they lose any- who will lose out? I haven't heard that they are likely to gain any TD's- or are they? And will Paul Murphy get reelected for Rise?
It's difficult to predict and I'm no expert. None of them are safe and it wouldn't be a surprise if they all lost and that's a real possibility....

Ruth Coppinger is in trouble but I think she'll just hold on.
Mick Barry will lose IMO.

Richard Boyd Barrett- seems to be under more pressure than I envisaged with the Greens but I think he'll scrape in.

Brid Smith will hold on I think probably at the expense of Joan Collins unfortunately.

I think Gino Kenny is gone.

Paul Murphy seems to be under pressure, the SP/Sol standing Sandra Fay in a blatant sectarian fashion while not surprising won't help although she won't poll terribly well....

On a good day I think the Dail grouping will come back with 4-5 PBPA 2 - SOL1/2 and Rise 1....they'll lose their speaking rights.

It's a long way from the heady days of the nonsense touted by PM and RBB about a political revolution. It's a sad state of affairs from a broader left wing perspective.
 

TippTopp

Member
Joined
May 25, 2017
Messages
57
Paul Murphy should retain his seat, he's been incredibly active in Dublin South West over his term.

Richard Boyd Barret has a large support base in Dun Laoghaire after a good 20 years of campaigning. He'll keep his seat.

Mick Barry will have a battle on his hands but should retain his seat in Cork North Central.

Ruth Coppinger should retain her seat but it'll be a dogfight.

I fear Gino Kenny and Brid Smith will lose out this time around
 

Hitchcock

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
8,967
Paul Murphy should retain his seat, he's been incredibly active in Dublin South West over his term.

Richard Boyd Barret has a large support base in Dun Laoghaire after a good 20 years of campaigning. He'll keep his seat.

Mick Barry will have a battle on his hands but should retain his seat in Cork North Central.

Ruth Coppinger should retain her seat but it'll be a dogfight.

I fear Gino Kenny and Brid Smith will lose out this time around
A campaigning record is important but it's no gurantee to a seat. Brid Smith is a better bet than RC to hold.
 

jmcc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
44,835
If the B&A poll is any indication, they should have more seats than Labour as PBP/etc have geographically concentrated votes that don't show up well in small sample national polls.
 

A Voice

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
8,218
Who'll you be voting for yourself, NP, Renua, Aontu, ACI?
Haven't made up my mind. But whiners who have no intention of being in government and who therefore promise the earth are a waste of my time and yours. So it's nul points for the alphabet soup from me.
 
Last edited:

Hitchcock

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
8,967
Haven't made up my mind. But whiners who have no intention of being in government and who therefore promise the earth are a waste of my time and yours. So it's nul points for the alphabet soup from me.
They are open to being in government but not with the two right wing parties, if the Greens or the Shinners had balls they'd stay out of government and force FF and FG together but they won't and we'll be left wth one more centre right gov and the continuation of a housing crisis, health crisis etc.
 

Hitchcock

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
8,967
If the B&A poll is any indication, they should have more seats than Labour as PBP/etc have geographically concentrated votes that don't show up well in small sample national polls.
I don't think so, Labour will probably get 6-8 seats PBPA etc will be doing well to get 4.
 

A Voice

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
8,218
They are open to being in government but not with the two right wing parties, if the Greens or the Shinners had balls they'd stay out of government and force FF and FG together but they won't and we'll be left wth one more centre right gov and the continuation of a housing crisis, health crisis etc.
But Lab, SF, Greens, alphabets and Indies can't make up a government. So they'll be on the sidelines again; happy there, too.
 

jmcc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
44,835
I don't think so, Labour will probably get 6-8 seats PBPA etc will be doing well to get 4.
The PBP/etc vote is almost an ideological one. The Labour vote isn't the only thing that Labour candidates have going for them is their personal vote as Labour stopped being a national party when its support dropped below 5%.
 

locke

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,372
I think Mick Barry will retain, mostly because there doesn't seem to be a good candidate to take his seat. He will also take some of Jonathan O'Brien's old vote.
 

neiphin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
5,642
I don't think so, Labour will probably get 6-8 seats PBPA etc will be doing well to get 4.
down to 5% hard to see
a lot of the old stock gone, those that got a personal vote
might have only the midge from wexford left
 

Hitchcock

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
8,967
down to 5% hard to see
a lot of the old stock gone, those that got a personal vote
might have only the midge from wexford left

That would be fantastic but the loud mouth from Tipp will hold on, Ged Nash is virtually guranteed a seat,
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top